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Voted on a straw in #Market Update for Ava Risk Group Limited by Rapstar
6 months ago
#Market Update

AVA Risk released an investore presentation.  In it there was a FY2021 guidance,  Strangely, the announcment was not marked as market sensitive.  Perhaps there is an earlier announcement, but I am yet to find it.  Here are the key takeaways:

1) Forecast Q1 2021 revenue:  +$15.5m - up 58% on pcp. 

2) Positive cashflow for Q1 2021, and an improvement on the $0.9 M reported on pcp.   It will likely translate into $3-4 millon in positive cashflow for the quarter

3) Repeated the IMOD $11.7M revenue forecast to be booked in FY2021 - remember, this is 100% gross margin licencing fees. 

4) AURA IQ pipeline is reproted to be +$49M, with another 6 proof of values deployments underway.  Forecast recurring revenues for this new product in FY2021.  

5) $14.6 M backlog as at June 30, 2020.  It was just $6.0 millon a year ago.  

AVA Risk are on track otearn +$60M in revenue this FY, and around 15-20% profit margins.  IT still looks remarkably cheap at this price.  

DISC - I HOLD ( a lot)

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