{"id":4772,"date":"2023-01-27T12:08:36","date_gmt":"2023-01-27T01:38:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/?p=4772"},"modified":"2023-03-06T09:05:39","modified_gmt":"2023-03-05T22:35:39","slug":"2023-market-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/2023-market-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"2023 Market Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As we gear up for another year of thrills and spills on the share market, it’s hard to avoid the blitz of market forecasts that are so reliably issued at this time of year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While it’s often interesting to hear what some people expect, you’d be wise to not take them too seriously. To put it bluntly, if your investment strategy rests on a 12 month outlook, you’re doing it wrong. Moreover, these forecasts are almost always laughable in hindsight (and when they’re not, it’s usually more a case of luck than prescience). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here’s the 2022 call from JP Morgan:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Goldman Sachs was likewise bullish on last year’s prospects:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

John Kenneth Galbraith really did nail it when he said \u201cThere are two kinds of forecasters: those who don\u2019t know, and those who don\u2019t know they don\u2019t know.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The point isn’t to try and embarrass these pundits (they do a good enough job of that themselves), but to point out that if some of the best resourced, best educated and most experienced practitioners so often get it wrong, we should, at the very least, be extremely humble in our own near term expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, the uncomfortable truth is that investing demands us to make at least some forecasts. The trick is knowing what’s worth trying to predict in the first place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Near term share price forecasts? Useless, and largely unimportant in the grand scheme of things<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long-term earnings trajectories, on the other hand, are a far more sensible thing to try and anticipate. Especially when you’re dealing with a business that has genuine sales momentum, some competitive advantages and a history of prudent capital management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not to say that’s easy, but it’s about being generally right, as opposed to specifically wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And, if and when it becomes clear your expectations were substantively wrong — as they often will be — you want to be honest enough to admit the error and act accordingly. Hubris, ego and hope can easily make things a lot worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whatever 2023 may bring, you can at least be sure of the following:
\nShare prices will fluctuate. Volatility is a constant.
\nMost of what ‘experts’ say about markets will be wrong.
\nThere will ALWAYS be opportunities, even in the most dire of circumstances.
\nAnd, of course, you can count on the Strawman community to help you navigate through the chaos of the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strawman is Australia\u2019s premier online investment club.
Members share research & recommendations on ASX-listed stocks by managing Virtual Portfolios and building Company Reports. By ranking content according to performance and community endorsement, Strawman provides accountable and peer-reviewed investment insights. <\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Create your FREE Strawman account<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

Disclaimer\u2013<\/strong> Strawman is not a broker and you cannot purchase shares through the platform. All trades on Strawman use play money and are intended only as a tool to gain experience and have fun. No content on Strawman should be considered an inducement to to buy or sell real world financial securities, and you should seek professional advice before making any investment decisions<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a9 2023 Strawman Pty Ltd. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

| Privacy Policy<\/a> | Terms of Service<\/a> | <\/p>\n\n\n\n

ACN: 610 908 211 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As we gear up for another year of thrills and spills on the share market, it’s hard to avoid the blitz of market forecasts that are so reliably issued at this time of year. While it’s often interesting to hear what some people expect, you’d be wise to not take them too seriously. To put it bluntly, if your investment […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":4776,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general"],"yoast_head":"\n2023 Market Outlook - Strawman Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/2023-market-outlook\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2023 Market Outlook - Strawman Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As we gear up for another year of thrills and spills on the share market, it’s hard to avoid the blitz of market forecasts that are so reliably issued at this time of year. While it’s often interesting to hear what some people expect, you’d be wise to not take them too seriously. To put it bluntly, if your investment […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/2023-market-outlook\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Strawman Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-01-27T01:38:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-03-05T22:35:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/prediction.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"824\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"472\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Andrew Page\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@sage_simian\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Andrew Page\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/2023-market-outlook\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/2023-market-outlook\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Andrew Page\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c19fbf9f9087255d8072b447b883fdea\"},\"headline\":\"2023 Market Outlook\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-01-27T01:38:36+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-03-05T22:35:39+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/2023-market-outlook\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":533,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/2023-market-outlook\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/01\\\/prediction.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"General\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/2023-market-outlook\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/2023-market-outlook\\\/\",\"name\":\"2023 Market Outlook - Strawman Blog\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/2023-market-outlook\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/2023-market-outlook\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/01\\\/prediction.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-01-27T01:38:36+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-03-05T22:35:39+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c19fbf9f9087255d8072b447b883fdea\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/2023-market-outlook\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/2023-market-outlook\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/2023-market-outlook\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/01\\\/prediction.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2023\\\/01\\\/prediction.png\",\"width\":824,\"height\":472},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/2023-market-outlook\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"2023 Market Outlook\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/\",\"name\":\"Strawman Blog\",\"description\":\"The Last Straw\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c19fbf9f9087255d8072b447b883fdea\",\"name\":\"Andrew Page\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/a0a16ac2ef38545ecd749eab8ad8d66208f6371c4bf77ba739eb5380c82279a6?s=96&d=robohash&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/a0a16ac2ef38545ecd749eab8ad8d66208f6371c4bf77ba739eb5380c82279a6?s=96&d=robohash&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/a0a16ac2ef38545ecd749eab8ad8d66208f6371c4bf77ba739eb5380c82279a6?s=96&d=robohash&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Andrew Page\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/sage_simian\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/author\\\/andrew\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"2023 Market Outlook - Strawman Blog","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/2023-market-outlook\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"2023 Market Outlook - Strawman Blog","og_description":"As we gear up for another year of thrills and spills on the share market, it’s hard to avoid the blitz of market forecasts that are so reliably issued at this time of year. While it’s often interesting to hear what some people expect, you’d be wise to not take them too seriously. To put it bluntly, if your investment […]","og_url":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/2023-market-outlook\/","og_site_name":"Strawman Blog","article_published_time":"2023-01-27T01:38:36+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-03-05T22:35:39+00:00","og_image":[{"width":824,"height":472,"url":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/prediction.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"Andrew Page","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@sage_simian","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Andrew Page","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/2023-market-outlook\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/2023-market-outlook\/"},"author":{"name":"Andrew Page","@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/c19fbf9f9087255d8072b447b883fdea"},"headline":"2023 Market Outlook","datePublished":"2023-01-27T01:38:36+00:00","dateModified":"2023-03-05T22:35:39+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/2023-market-outlook\/"},"wordCount":533,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/2023-market-outlook\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/prediction.png","articleSection":["General"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/2023-market-outlook\/","url":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/2023-market-outlook\/","name":"2023 Market Outlook - Strawman Blog","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/2023-market-outlook\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/2023-market-outlook\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/prediction.png","datePublished":"2023-01-27T01:38:36+00:00","dateModified":"2023-03-05T22:35:39+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/c19fbf9f9087255d8072b447b883fdea"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/2023-market-outlook\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/2023-market-outlook\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/2023-market-outlook\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/prediction.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/prediction.png","width":824,"height":472},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/2023-market-outlook\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"2023 Market Outlook"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/","name":"Strawman Blog","description":"The Last Straw","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/c19fbf9f9087255d8072b447b883fdea","name":"Andrew Page","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a0a16ac2ef38545ecd749eab8ad8d66208f6371c4bf77ba739eb5380c82279a6?s=96&d=robohash&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a0a16ac2ef38545ecd749eab8ad8d66208f6371c4bf77ba739eb5380c82279a6?s=96&d=robohash&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a0a16ac2ef38545ecd749eab8ad8d66208f6371c4bf77ba739eb5380c82279a6?s=96&d=robohash&r=g","caption":"Andrew Page"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/sage_simian"],"url":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/author\/andrew\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4772","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4772"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4772\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4776"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4772"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4772"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4772"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}