{"id":4962,"date":"2024-02-02T13:37:32","date_gmt":"2024-02-02T03:07:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/?p=4962"},"modified":"2024-02-02T13:42:13","modified_gmt":"2024-02-02T03:12:13","slug":"simplicity-through-complexity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/simplicity-through-complexity\/","title":{"rendered":"Simplicity Through Complexity"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p><em>&#8220;Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated&#8221;<\/em><\/p><cite><em>Confucius&nbsp;<\/em> <\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\">The same could be said of investing, where the <em>complexity bias<\/em> &#8212; a logical fallacy which equates complexity with accuracy &#8212; results in a proliferation of highly detailed models and valuations.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But, to paraphrase Joel Greenblatt; if you can&nbsp;easily and simply&nbsp;explain why something\u2019s a great business, and how and why it\u2019s cheap, you&#8217;re likely on to a good thing<em>. &#8220;You\u2019re never sitting there on the 40th page of your spreadsheet, as Buffett would say, agonizing over whether you should buy or not.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, I stumbled across a <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ClarkSquareCap\/status\/1748479765689086163\">tweet<\/a> which reminded me that this is a truth that is best understood by those that have had to learn the hard way. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"585\" height=\"272\" src=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/tweet-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4964\" srcset=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/tweet-1.png 585w, https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/tweet-1-300x139.png 300w, https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/tweet-1-45x21.png 45w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 585px) 100vw, 585px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>This idea will resonate with a lot of investors, but it was this reply that really struck a chord for me: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"585\" height=\"193\" src=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/tweet-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4965\" srcset=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/tweet-2.png 585w, https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/tweet-2-300x99.png 300w, https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/tweet-2-45x15.png 45w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 585px) 100vw, 585px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>So true.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is why something as basic as the humble P\/E ratio can be extremely powerful &#8212; if you can look at it through experienced eyes.\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"430\" src=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/bell-curve.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4966\" srcset=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/bell-curve.png 600w, https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/bell-curve-300x215.png 300w, https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/bell-curve-45x32.png 45w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s a bit reminiscent of T.S. Elliot&#8217;s line&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>&#8220;&#8230;and the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we began and to know the place for the first time.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Anyway, all of this is just to say that investing is about keeping things simple, but not too simple. And to recognise there can still value in leaning into the complex stuff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Todd Combs &#8212; Buffett&#8217;s heir apparent at Berkshire &#8212; captured the nuance well, as per the following tweet reply:\n\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"599\" height=\"491\" src=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/tweet-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4967\" srcset=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/tweet-3.png 599w, https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/tweet-3-300x246.png 300w, https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/tweet-3-45x37.png 45w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 599px) 100vw, 599px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Twitter (or &#8216;X&#8217;) can be a bit of a dumpster fire at times, but every now and then you stumble across great wisdom. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-color has-background has-normal-font-size has-very-dark-gray-color has-very-light-gray-background-color\"><em>Strawman is Australia\u2019s premier online investment club. <br>Members share research &amp; recommendations on ASX-listed stocks by managing Virtual Portfolios and building Company Reports. By ranking content according to performance and community endorsement, Strawman provides accountable and peer-reviewed investment insights. <\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button aligncenter\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color has-very-light-gray-color has-background has-tertiary-background-color\" href=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/member\/landing\/signup\"> Create your FREE Strawman account<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-color has-cyan-bluish-gray-color\"><em><strong>Disclaimer\u2013<\/strong> Strawman is not a broker and you cannot purchase shares through the platform. All trades on Strawman use play money and are intended only as a tool to gain experience and have fun. No content on Strawman should be considered an inducement to to buy or sell real world financial securities, and you should seek professional advice before making any investment decisions<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-color has-text-align-center has-cyan-bluish-gray-color\">\u00a9 2024 Strawman Pty Ltd. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">| <a href=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/member\/landing\/privacy\">Privacy Policy<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/member\/landing\/terms\">Terms of Service<\/a> | <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-color has-text-align-center has-cyan-bluish-gray-color\">ACN: 610 908 211 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated&#8221; Confucius&nbsp; The same could be said of investing, where the complexity bias &#8212; a logical fallacy which equates complexity with accuracy &#8212; results in a proliferation of highly detailed models and valuations.&nbsp; But, to paraphrase Joel Greenblatt; if you can&nbsp;easily and simply&nbsp;explain why something\u2019s a great business, and how [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":4972,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - 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