{"id":5362,"date":"2025-05-16T11:09:12","date_gmt":"2025-05-16T00:39:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/?p=5362"},"modified":"2025-05-16T11:09:13","modified_gmt":"2025-05-16T00:39:13","slug":"four-inches-into-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/four-inches-into-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Four Inches Into The Future"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\">In a 2014 interview, Lloyd Blankfein, then CEO of Goldman Sachs and part-time Bond villain lookalike, was asked a simple question: <em>How far into the future can you see?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, given Goldman\u2019s reputation for spotting market trends before most, you\u2019d expect a confident answer.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead, Blankfein deadpanned:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cI don\u2019t think I could see four inches into the future.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Not exactly what you\u2019d expect from the guy with a battalion of brainiacs, bleeding edge tech, and half of Wall Street on speed dial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But he wasn\u2019t joking. He was making a crucial and often missed point about investing. <strong>Success doesn\u2019t come from clairvoyance. It comes from preparation.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because here\u2019s the awkward truth:&nbsp;we\u2019re all terrible at forecasting. And not just a little bit either &#8212; experts, pundits, economists would be better off flipping a coin and calling it a day. Even when we do get it right, it\u2019s often for&nbsp;the wrong reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So when the game is unwinnable, the only rational move is to change the game. And the game to play isn\u2019t about betting on a single outcome. It\u2019s about thinking probabilistically and planning across a range of possible futures.<br><br>You trade prediction for preparation. Instead of trying to be certain, you aim to be ready.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s why Blankfein followed up with:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cWhat we really aspire to is less to foresee the future and more to be a great contingency planner.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Contingency thinking starts with a dose of humility. You admit you can\u2019t see around every corner. But you can game it out:&nbsp;If this, then that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, having a view still matters. You need a thesis, a working hypothesis for how things might unfold. Forecasts help guide your planning &#8212; they just shouldn\u2019t drive it. And crucially, you should avoid bets that rely on a single outcome, especially when the alternatives could lead to real pain.<br><br>The best investors aren\u2019t married to a narrative. They build out scenarios, stress test assumptions, and stay ready to shift course when conditions change. It\u2019s not about being right all the time. It\u2019s about being prepared for what happens when you\u2019re wrong. Flexibility isn\u2019t a lack of conviction, just&nbsp;a recognition that the future rarely follows a script.<br><br>That\u2019s the difference between the pros and the pundits. Not necessarily better guesses &#8212; just better preparation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-very-dark-gray-color has-very-light-gray-background-color has-text-color has-background has-normal-font-size\"><em>Strawman is Australia\u2019s premier online investment club. <br>Members share research &amp; recommendations on ASX-listed stocks by managing Virtual Portfolios and building Company Reports. By ranking content according to performance and community endorsement, Strawman provides accountable and peer-reviewed investment insights. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button aligncenter\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-very-light-gray-color has-tertiary-background-color has-text-color has-background has-text-align-center wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/member\/landing\/signup\"> Create your FREE Strawman account<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-cyan-bluish-gray-color has-text-color\"><em><strong>Disclaimer\u2013<\/strong> Strawman is not a broker and you cannot purchase shares through the platform. All trades on Strawman use play money and are intended only as a tool to gain experience and have fun. No content on Strawman should be considered an inducement to buy or sell real world financial securities, and you should seek professional advice before making any investment decisions<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-cyan-bluish-gray-color has-text-color\">\u00a9 2025 Strawman Pty Ltd. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">| <a href=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/member\/landing\/privacy\">Privacy Policy<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/member\/landing\/terms\">Terms of Service<\/a> |<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a 2014 interview, Lloyd Blankfein, then CEO of Goldman Sachs and part-time Bond villain lookalike, was asked a simple question: How far into the future can you see? Now, given Goldman\u2019s reputation for spotting market trends before most, you\u2019d expect a confident answer.&nbsp; Instead, Blankfein deadpanned: \u201cI don\u2019t think I could see four inches into the future.\u201d Not exactly [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":5363,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5362","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Four Inches Into The Future - Strawman Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/four-inches-into-the-future\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Four Inches Into The Future - Strawman Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In a 2014 interview, Lloyd Blankfein, then CEO of Goldman Sachs and part-time Bond villain lookalike, was asked a simple question: How far into the future can you see? Now, given Goldman\u2019s reputation for spotting market trends before most, you\u2019d expect a confident answer.&nbsp; Instead, Blankfein deadpanned: \u201cI don\u2019t think I could see four inches into the future.\u201d Not exactly [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/four-inches-into-the-future\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Strawman Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-05-16T00:39:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-05-16T00:39:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/blog-image-chess.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"470\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"317\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Andrew Page\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@sage_simian\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Andrew Page\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/four-inches-into-the-future\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/four-inches-into-the-future\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Andrew Page\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c19fbf9f9087255d8072b447b883fdea\"},\"headline\":\"Four Inches Into The Future\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-05-16T00:39:12+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-05-16T00:39:13+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/four-inches-into-the-future\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":533,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/four-inches-into-the-future\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/05\\\/blog-image-chess.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"General\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/four-inches-into-the-future\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/four-inches-into-the-future\\\/\",\"name\":\"Four Inches Into The Future - 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