{"id":5385,"date":"2025-06-17T10:40:09","date_gmt":"2025-06-17T00:10:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/?p=5385"},"modified":"2025-06-17T11:37:21","modified_gmt":"2025-06-17T01:07:21","slug":"valuation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/valuation\/","title":{"rendered":"Super Simple Valuation Model"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>How much is a share <em>really<\/em> worth?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There&#8217;s no one answer, but you can approach the question intelligently by employing the humble PE ratio and making a few assumptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>How this calculator works:<\/strong><br>Enter your assumptions for each scenario \u2014 including forecast earnings per share (EPS), the price-to-earnings (PE) multiple, time horizon, and discount rate. The calculator projects a future valuation for each case and then discounts it back to today&#8217;s dollars. Finally, it combines all three scenarios using your assigned weightings to give a weighted average valuation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!-- (Paste this full code \u2013 includes everything from before, with the error check added) -->\n\n<style>\n  table {\n    border-collapse: collapse;\n    margin-bottom: 16px;\n    width: 100%;\n    border: 2px solid #000;\n  }\n  th, td {\n    padding: 6px;\n    text-align: center;\n    border: 1.5px solid #000;\n  }\n  th {\n    background-color: #d9e7f3;\n  }\n  td input {\n    width: 90%;\n    padding: 4px;\n    font-size: 1em;\n    text-align: center;\n  }\n  .highlight {\n    background-color: #fbeac2;\n    font-weight: bold;\n  }\n  .tooltip-wrapper {\n    position: relative;\n    display: inline-block;\n    cursor: pointer;\n    font-weight: bold;\n    color: #555;\n    margin-left: 4px;\n  }\n  .tooltip-wrapper .tooltip-text {\n    visibility: hidden;\n    width: 160px;\n    background-color: #333;\n    color: #fff;\n    text-align: left;\n    border-radius: 4px;\n    padding: 6px;\n    position: absolute;\n    z-index: 1;\n    bottom: 120%;\n    left: 50%;\n    margin-left: -80px;\n    opacity: 0;\n    transition: opacity 0.3s;\n    font-size: 12px;\n  }\n  .tooltip-wrapper:hover .tooltip-text {\n    visibility: visible;\n    opacity: 1;\n  }\n  .prefix-wrapper {\n    display: flex;\n    align-items: center;\n    justify-content: center;\n  }\n  .prefix-wrapper span {\n    margin-right: 4px;\n    font-weight: bold;\n  }\n  .error-message {\n    color: red;\n    font-weight: bold;\n    text-align: center;\n    display: none;\n    margin-top: 6px;\n  }\n<\/style>\n\n<h3>Scenario Valuation Tool<\/h3>\n\n<table>\n  <tr>\n    <th>Variable<\/th>\n    <th>Bear Case<\/th>\n    <th>Base Case<\/th>\n    <th>Bull Case<\/th>\n  <\/tr>\n  <tr>\n    <td>Forecast EPS \n      <span class=\"tooltip-wrapper\">\ud83d\udec8\n        <span class=\"tooltip-text\">Expected earnings per share (in dollars) at end of period<\/span>\n      <\/span>\n    <\/td>\n    <td><div class=\"prefix-wrapper\"><span>$<\/span><input type=\"number\" step=\"0.001\" id=\"eps_bear\" value=\"0.80\"><\/div><\/td>\n    <td><div class=\"prefix-wrapper\"><span>$<\/span><input type=\"number\" step=\"0.001\" id=\"eps_base\" value=\"1.00\"><\/div><\/td>\n    <td><div class=\"prefix-wrapper\"><span>$<\/span><input type=\"number\" step=\"0.001\" id=\"eps_bull\" value=\"1.20\"><\/div><\/td>\n  <\/tr>\n  <tr>\n    <td>Forecast PE \n      <span class=\"tooltip-wrapper\">\ud83d\udec8\n        <span class=\"tooltip-text\">Price-to-earnings multiple at end of period<\/span>\n      <\/span>\n    <\/td>\n    <td><input type=\"number\" id=\"pe_bear\" value=\"10\"><\/td>\n    <td><input type=\"number\" id=\"pe_base\" value=\"15\"><\/td>\n    <td><input type=\"number\" id=\"pe_bull\" value=\"20\"><\/td>\n  <\/tr>\n  <tr>\n    <td>Forecast period (years)\n      <span class=\"tooltip-wrapper\">\ud83d\udec8\n        <span class=\"tooltip-text\">Years until you expect valuation to be realised<\/span>\n      <\/span>\n    <\/td>\n    <td><input type=\"number\" id=\"years_bear\" value=\"5\"><\/td>\n    <td><input type=\"number\" id=\"years_base\" value=\"5\"><\/td>\n    <td><input type=\"number\" id=\"years_bull\" value=\"5\"><\/td>\n  <\/tr>\n  <tr>\n    <td>Discount rate (%)\n      <span class=\"tooltip-wrapper\">\ud83d\udec8\n        <span class=\"tooltip-text\">Annual rate to discount future value to today<\/span>\n      <\/span>\n    <\/td>\n    <td><input type=\"number\" step=\"0.1\" id=\"discount_bear\" value=\"10\"><\/td>\n    <td><input type=\"number\" step=\"0.1\" id=\"discount_base\" value=\"10\"><\/td>\n    <td><input type=\"number\" step=\"0.1\" id=\"discount_bull\" value=\"10\"><\/td>\n  <\/tr>\n  <tr>\n    <th>Intrinsic Value<\/th>\n    <td id=\"value_bear\">$0.00<\/td>\n    <td id=\"value_base\">$0.00<\/td>\n    <td id=\"value_bull\">$0.00<\/td>\n  <\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n<table>\n  <tr>\n    <th>Weighting (%) \n      <span class=\"tooltip-wrapper\">\ud83d\udec8\n        <span class=\"tooltip-text\">Probability you assign to each scenario<\/span>\n      <\/span>\n    <\/th>\n    <td><input type=\"number\" step=\"0.1\" id=\"weight_bear\" value=\"25\"><\/td>\n    <td><input type=\"number\" step=\"0.1\" id=\"weight_base\" value=\"50\"><\/td>\n    <td><input type=\"number\" step=\"0.1\" id=\"weight_bull\" value=\"25\"><\/td>\n  <\/tr>\n  <tr class=\"highlight\">\n    <td>Weighted Average<\/td>\n    <td colspan=\"3\" id=\"weighted_avg\">$0.00<\/td>\n  <\/tr>\n<\/table>\n\n<div class=\"error-message\" id=\"weight_error\">Weightings must total 100%<\/div>\n\n<script>\nfunction calcValuation(eps, pe, years, discountPct) {\n  const discount = discountPct \/ 100;\n  const futureVal = eps * pe;\n  return futureVal \/ Math.pow(1 + discount, years);\n}\n\nfunction updateScenario() {\n  const cases = ['bear', 'base', 'bull'];\n  let weightedSum = 0;\n  let totalWeight = 0;\n\n  for (let c of cases) {\n    const eps = parseFloat(document.getElementById(`eps_${c}`).value);\n    const pe = parseFloat(document.getElementById(`pe_${c}`).value);\n    const years = parseFloat(document.getElementById(`years_${c}`).value);\n    const discount = parseFloat(document.getElementById(`discount_${c}`).value);\n    const weightPct = parseFloat(document.getElementById(`weight_${c}`).value);\n\n    if ([eps, pe, years, discount, weightPct].some(isNaN)) continue;\n\n    const intrinsic = calcValuation(eps, pe, years, discount);\n    const weight = weightPct \/ 100;\n    weightedSum += intrinsic * weight;\n    totalWeight += weightPct;\n\n    document.getElementById(`value_${c}`).textContent = `$${intrinsic.toFixed(2)}`;\n  }\n\n  document.getElementById('weighted_avg').textContent = `$${weightedSum.toFixed(2)}`;\n\n  \/\/ Show error if weightings don't sum to 100\n  const errorMsg = document.getElementById('weight_error');\n  if (Math.round(totalWeight) !== 100) {\n    errorMsg.style.display = 'block';\n  } else {\n    errorMsg.style.display = 'none';\n  }\n}\n\ndocument.querySelectorAll('input').forEach(input => {\n  input.addEventListener('input', updateScenario);\n});\n\nupdateScenario();\n<\/script>\n\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud83e\udde0 Things to Keep in Mind<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Valuation is an estimate, not a fact.<\/strong> Even the most sophisticated models rely on assumptions and forecasts \u2014 which are ultimately just educated guesses.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Garbage in, garbage out.<\/strong> The quality of your output depends entirely on the quality of your inputs. Unrealistic assumptions will lead to misleading results.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The market doesn\u2019t have to agree with you.<\/strong> Just because your model suggests a stock is undervalued doesn\u2019t mean the market will reflect that view anytime soon \u2014 or ever.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Sentiment and expectations matter.<\/strong> Prices are driven by what people believe will happen, not necessarily what <em>should<\/em> happen. That belief can shift suddenly and irrationally.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Discounted valuations are sensitive.<\/strong> Small changes in discount rate, growth, or PE can have a big impact on your result. Always test a range of scenarios.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Use this tool as a framework, not a crystal ball.<\/strong> It\u2019s designed to guide your thinking and force clarity around assumptions \u2014 not deliver a definitive answer.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>A weighted average helps balance uncertainty.<\/strong> Using a blend of bear, base, and bull cases is a great way to avoid overconfidence in any one outcome.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>There\u2019s no such thing as precision.<\/strong> A $9.37 valuation isn\u2019t any more meaningful than \u201caround $9\u201310\u201d. Focus more on direction and drivers than decimal points.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-very-dark-gray-color has-very-light-gray-background-color has-text-color has-background has-normal-font-size\"><em>Strawman is Australia\u2019s premier online investment club. <br>Members share research &amp; recommendations on ASX-listed stocks by managing Virtual Portfolios and building Company Reports. By ranking content according to performance and community endorsement, Strawman provides accountable and peer-reviewed investment insights. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button aligncenter\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-very-light-gray-color has-tertiary-background-color has-text-color has-background has-text-align-center wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/member\/landing\/signup\"> Create your FREE Strawman account<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-cyan-bluish-gray-color has-text-color\"><em><strong>Disclaimer\u2013<\/strong> Strawman is not a broker and you cannot purchase shares through the platform. All trades on Strawman use play money and are intended only as a tool to gain experience and have fun. No content on Strawman should be considered an inducement to buy or sell real world financial securities, and you should seek professional advice before making any investment decisions<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-cyan-bluish-gray-color has-text-color\">\u00a9 2025 Strawman Pty Ltd. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">| <a href=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/member\/landing\/privacy\">Privacy Policy<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/member\/landing\/terms\">Terms of Service<\/a> |<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How much is a share really worth? There&#8217;s no one answer, but you can approach the question intelligently by employing the humble PE ratio and making a few assumptions. How this calculator works:Enter your assumptions for each scenario \u2014 including forecast earnings per share (EPS), the price-to-earnings (PE) multiple, time horizon, and discount rate. The calculator projects a future valuation [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":5409,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[39],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5385","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Super Simple Valuation Model - Strawman Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/valuation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Super Simple Valuation Model - Strawman Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"How much is a share really worth? There&#8217;s no one answer, but you can approach the question intelligently by employing the humble PE ratio and making a few assumptions. How this calculator works:Enter your assumptions for each scenario \u2014 including forecast earnings per share (EPS), the price-to-earnings (PE) multiple, time horizon, and discount rate. The calculator projects a future valuation [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/valuation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Strawman Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-06-17T00:10:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-06-17T01:07:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/valuation-tool.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"471\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"298\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Andrew Page\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@sage_simian\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Andrew Page\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/valuation\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/valuation\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Andrew Page\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c19fbf9f9087255d8072b447b883fdea\"},\"headline\":\"Super Simple Valuation Model\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-06-17T00:10:09+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-06-17T01:07:21+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/valuation\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":490,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/valuation\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/06\\\/valuation-tool.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Featured\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/valuation\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/valuation\\\/\",\"name\":\"Super Simple Valuation Model - 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