{"id":5487,"date":"2025-09-12T11:15:10","date_gmt":"2025-09-12T00:45:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/?p=5487"},"modified":"2025-09-12T11:15:10","modified_gmt":"2025-09-12T00:45:10","slug":"the-signal-in-simplicity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/the-signal-in-simplicity\/","title":{"rendered":"The Signal in Simplicity"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cIt&#8217;s the mark of a charlatan to try and explain simple things in complex ways, and it&#8217;s the mark of a genius to explain complicated things in simple ways.\u201d<br>\u2014 <\/em>Naval Ravikant<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>I don\u2019t think many of us would disagree with Naval\u2019s sentiment. But if we\u2019re honest with ourselves, most of us are still drawn to sophisticated-sounding speech. Big words, technical jargon, and polished presentations tend to convey intelligence and expertise, and who doesn\u2019t want to feel like they\u2019re dealing with someone who knows what they\u2019re talking about? Especially when our money is on the line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It isn\u2019t just about language either. A confident-looking person behind a big oak desk in a glass-walled tower naturally seems more credible than a hoodie-wearing YouTuber streaming from their bedroom. One screams \u201cprofessional,\u201d the other \u201camateur.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are social creatures, wired to pick up on subtle cues like posture, clothing, vocabulary, and even office d\u00e9cor. These signals often serve us well as quick heuristics for trust and competence. But they are not foolproof. In fact, they can backfire, sometimes spectacularly, especially in investing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Take broker and analyst reports. They are often filled with precise forecasts, granular industry statistics, and elaborate discounted cash flow models, all wrapped in mathematically intimidating language. On the surface, this level of detail feels reassuring. But it is a false precision that masks just how uncertain the world really is. No matter how many decimal places you add to a projection, no one can predict earnings in 2028 with any real accuracy. They certainly can&#8217;t predict the market&#8217;s mood. Generally speaking, these complex models exist less to forecast reality and more to signal authority: \u201cLook how deep in the weeds we are, trust us!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CEO interviews and glossy investor presentations can be just as seductive, especially when a company is working on bleeding-edge technology. Founders and executives can speak passionately and confidently about breakthroughs, and it is easy to get swept up in the excitement. But there is a vast difference between a cool technology fresh out of the lab and a commercially viable business model. History is littered with examples where the former never became the latter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is not to say jargon is inherently bad. It exists for a reason. It can condense complex ideas into shorthand and make communication between experts more efficient. But there is a test worth applying: if someone cannot explain their idea in plain, simple language, as if to a 12-year-old, they probably do not understand it well enough themselves. When someone truly grasps the fundamentals, they can strip away the complexity and still make the core insight clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Simplicity, when grounded in genuine understanding, is far more powerful than complexity. As people like Carl Sagan, Morgan Housel, and (of course) Uncle&nbsp;Warren&nbsp;have shown, true genius is not about sounding smart, it is about making complex ideas simple enough for anyone to understand. That kind of clarity is rare, and it is worth seeking out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Complexity often feels safe because it looks rigorous. It can create an illusion of certainty, but certainty in markets is a mirage. <strong>The best investors are comfortable admitting what they do not know and focusing instead on what can be known. They strip away noise, reduce things to first principles, and make decisions based on the simplest possible explanations.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When someone can take something complicated and make it clear without dumbing it down, pay attention. That is where the real signal lies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-very-dark-gray-color has-very-light-gray-background-color has-text-color has-background has-normal-font-size\"><em>Strawman is Australia\u2019s premier online investment club. <br>Members share research &amp; recommendations on ASX-listed stocks by managing Virtual Portfolios and building Company Reports. By ranking content according to performance and community endorsement, Strawman provides accountable and peer-reviewed investment insights. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button aligncenter\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-very-light-gray-color has-tertiary-background-color has-text-color has-background has-text-align-center wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/member\/landing\/signup\"> Create your FREE Strawman account<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-cyan-bluish-gray-color has-text-color\"><em><strong>Disclaimer\u2013<\/strong> Strawman is not a broker and you cannot purchase shares through the platform. All trades on Strawman use play money and are intended only as a tool to gain experience and have fun. No content on Strawman should be considered an inducement to buy or sell real world financial securities, and you should seek professional advice before making any investment decisions<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-cyan-bluish-gray-color has-text-color\">\u00a9 2025 Strawman Pty Ltd. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">| <a href=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/member\/landing\/privacy\">Privacy Policy<\/a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/member\/landing\/terms\">Terms of Service<\/a> |<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cIt&#8217;s the mark of a charlatan to try and explain simple things in complex ways, and it&#8217;s the mark of a genius to explain complicated things in simple ways.\u201d\u2014 Naval Ravikant I don\u2019t think many of us would disagree with Naval\u2019s sentiment. But if we\u2019re honest with ourselves, most of us are still drawn to sophisticated-sounding speech. Big words, technical [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":5489,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-general"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Signal in Simplicity - Strawman Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/the-signal-in-simplicity\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Signal in Simplicity - Strawman Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u201cIt&#8217;s the mark of a charlatan to try and explain simple things in complex ways, and it&#8217;s the mark of a genius to explain complicated things in simple ways.\u201d\u2014 Naval Ravikant I don\u2019t think many of us would disagree with Naval\u2019s sentiment. But if we\u2019re honest with ourselves, most of us are still drawn to sophisticated-sounding speech. Big words, technical [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/the-signal-in-simplicity\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Strawman Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-09-12T00:45:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/simpe.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"474\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"312\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Andrew Page\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@sage_simian\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Andrew Page\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/the-signal-in-simplicity\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/the-signal-in-simplicity\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Andrew Page\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c19fbf9f9087255d8072b447b883fdea\"},\"headline\":\"The Signal in Simplicity\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-09-12T00:45:10+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/the-signal-in-simplicity\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":711,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/the-signal-in-simplicity\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/09\\\/simpe.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"General\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/the-signal-in-simplicity\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/the-signal-in-simplicity\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Signal in Simplicity - Strawman Blog\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/the-signal-in-simplicity\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/the-signal-in-simplicity\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/09\\\/simpe.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-09-12T00:45:10+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c19fbf9f9087255d8072b447b883fdea\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/the-signal-in-simplicity\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/the-signal-in-simplicity\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/the-signal-in-simplicity\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/09\\\/simpe.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/09\\\/simpe.png\",\"width\":474,\"height\":312},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/the-signal-in-simplicity\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The Signal in Simplicity\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/\",\"name\":\"Strawman Blog\",\"description\":\"The Last Straw\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c19fbf9f9087255d8072b447b883fdea\",\"name\":\"Andrew Page\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/a0a16ac2ef38545ecd749eab8ad8d66208f6371c4bf77ba739eb5380c82279a6?s=96&d=robohash&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/a0a16ac2ef38545ecd749eab8ad8d66208f6371c4bf77ba739eb5380c82279a6?s=96&d=robohash&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/a0a16ac2ef38545ecd749eab8ad8d66208f6371c4bf77ba739eb5380c82279a6?s=96&d=robohash&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Andrew Page\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/sage_simian\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/strawman.com\\\/blog\\\/author\\\/andrew\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The Signal in Simplicity - Strawman Blog","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/the-signal-in-simplicity\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Signal in Simplicity - Strawman Blog","og_description":"\u201cIt&#8217;s the mark of a charlatan to try and explain simple things in complex ways, and it&#8217;s the mark of a genius to explain complicated things in simple ways.\u201d\u2014 Naval Ravikant I don\u2019t think many of us would disagree with Naval\u2019s sentiment. But if we\u2019re honest with ourselves, most of us are still drawn to sophisticated-sounding speech. Big words, technical [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/the-signal-in-simplicity\/","og_site_name":"Strawman Blog","article_published_time":"2025-09-12T00:45:10+00:00","og_image":[{"width":474,"height":312,"url":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/simpe.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"Andrew Page","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@sage_simian","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Andrew Page","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/the-signal-in-simplicity\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/the-signal-in-simplicity\/"},"author":{"name":"Andrew Page","@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/c19fbf9f9087255d8072b447b883fdea"},"headline":"The Signal in Simplicity","datePublished":"2025-09-12T00:45:10+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/the-signal-in-simplicity\/"},"wordCount":711,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/the-signal-in-simplicity\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/simpe.png","articleSection":["General"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/the-signal-in-simplicity\/","url":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/the-signal-in-simplicity\/","name":"The Signal in Simplicity - Strawman Blog","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/the-signal-in-simplicity\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/the-signal-in-simplicity\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/simpe.png","datePublished":"2025-09-12T00:45:10+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/c19fbf9f9087255d8072b447b883fdea"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/the-signal-in-simplicity\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/the-signal-in-simplicity\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/the-signal-in-simplicity\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/simpe.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/simpe.png","width":474,"height":312},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/the-signal-in-simplicity\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The Signal in Simplicity"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/","name":"Strawman Blog","description":"The Last Straw","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/c19fbf9f9087255d8072b447b883fdea","name":"Andrew Page","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a0a16ac2ef38545ecd749eab8ad8d66208f6371c4bf77ba739eb5380c82279a6?s=96&d=robohash&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a0a16ac2ef38545ecd749eab8ad8d66208f6371c4bf77ba739eb5380c82279a6?s=96&d=robohash&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a0a16ac2ef38545ecd749eab8ad8d66208f6371c4bf77ba739eb5380c82279a6?s=96&d=robohash&r=g","caption":"Andrew Page"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/sage_simian"],"url":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/author\/andrew\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5487"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5487\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5489"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/strawman.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}