Hi Barney
Well written on Aurizon
I looked at it and had some similar observations and invested into it earlyier this year.
I havnt written down the valuation on strawman but I came to but I came out with approx 11% pa return over a number of years with big margin of saftey.
I'd have to look at home for my write up again However I think for a long term buy and hold it offers alot.
From memory
I think its interesting as a large amount of their coal is transported for steel production as opposed to power generation.
the majority of the coal goes to India and they have long term 6 to 10 year contracts from mining companys so they get paid regardless of the commodity they carry.
To note they have won a green company endorsement award I forget the specifics as they are alot cleaner company than people generally imagine Think of the savings of the cost of fuel road congestion for transport on road.
Note im not talking about coal or any of the comodities they carry and realise that this is not in this equation.
I came to the conclusion that long term this is definetly a great company to walk alongside as a long term holder.
I beleive they made a key acquisition in Queensland now being able to take their track straight to the harbour. Before they had to transport by road the remaining few kms So they do make smart acquisitions to benefit the company for the long term.
The average working life of a track is forty years Yet they are simply not just about coal transport. As the needs arise they can transport the needs of the country as its required agriculture mining and any goods etc.
I note the links for mining on the board back to Rio or Bhp id have to look again on my notes at home.
I'd be interested in reading your valuation if you write it down.
Thanks again Barney for taking the time to share
have a great day