Polynovo Limited

ASX:PNV

Polynovo Limited

ASX:PNV
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$1.155 (-1.3%)
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#39
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28
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Forum Topics PNV PNV PNV valuation

Pinned valuation:
Parko5
Added 3 months ago
Justification

Current - 21 Jan 2025

  • I sold 90% of my PNV holding today on SM and RL.
  • I have had a quick look back at my previous valuations. @mikebrisy is correct. Growth is well below where we have modelled.
  • New products have not materialised
  • I think also that 2024 saw a bump up in sales, but this did not reoccur in H1 of FY25.
  • I will invest back into PNV if the SP drops below 1.80 (this stock get pushed around quite a bit...so this may happen). Or if there is a new product annoucement. Or if RoW has a material uptick (may happen with India?)
  • I have not done the research lately, but @mikebrisy had compared some of PNV's competitors...and they were similar in growth etc. I had invested in PNV due to its market leading tech. But it seems that surgeons are divided on what they like.


26 Aug 2024

  • Updated Valuation to $3.50
  • I have not re-run my model, but just adjusted in my head.
  • I think we are seeing not only the new markets, new accounts in exisiting markets, but also deeper penetration into existing accounts. This all will add to revenue.
  • I think also that we can factor in a small amount to the SP for these new products coming. Swami seems to have this under control with a clear timeframe in mind.


29 Feb 2024

  • Updating Valuation to $2.75
  • Based on same assumptions below, but hitting their targets earlier.
  • Also it seems that each Sales Rep is producing more revenue than I had originally had in my assumptions.
  • Still have not factored in new PNV products.
  • The PNV team also seem to be working really well...which bodes well.


Sept 2023

  • I think PNV will continue to achieve it’s growth strategy and see revenue continue to grow globally for it’s existing products. 
  • I think PNV will continue to add new products which will expand it’s revenue.
  • I think PNV is currently undervalue at $1.50 (22 August 2023) and should move up to about $2.20 by the early 2024.
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Parko5
Added 3 months ago

It is super humbling to re-read my previous valuations.

But this was super informative for me today with PNV. It made me see that alot of growth was to occur and new products to push the SP up to those valuations....but the reality was below these expectations. I think it was fair to give the PNV team time to execute. But at some point you lose faith and better to lock in the profit.

That being said, i will keep looking closely at PNV. Because if they can crack RoW and/or develop new products....it could re-rate up quite a bit.

24
mikebrisy
Added 3 months ago

@Parko5 I am rather more sanguine about my previous and long-held enthusiasm for the stock.

Before December’s revenue update and last week’s HY confirmation, I was on a valuation of $2.60 ($2.30-$3.50), with the higher scenarios showing sustained growth in US ahead of competitors driven by widening adoption across indications and strong sustained RoW growth with new markets picking up the slack as leading markets (ANZ, UKI, Ger) matured.

While I haven’t updated my SM valuation with the latest data, eyeballing it tells me that we are probably now looking at a range in the ballpark of $2.00-$2.50.

My preemptive sale move is to get in ahead of any potential downgrade cycle, which we know can be savage for this stock, or even worse a return of the shorter!

I’d like the luxury of re-assessing this stock and my thesis from the comfort of the sidelines. I can’t see any catalysts for a rapid move up now, so I think we have time.

Personally, I’m happy with my process and have acted swiftly in line with my emerging view and new data.

I’ll do a quick reset of my SM valuation as a placeholder and do a proper update after HY results.

24
Parko5
Added 3 months ago

I agree 100%

When i went back and looked at what we had factored in, in terms of growth etc.......the actual sales growth just didn't match. I had also fallen into the trap of just glancing over the last few annoucments...and on the surface it just look like it was all on track.

I think when the SP hit $2.70 ish......we were thinking that RoW was really going to fly. And it has not. I think we were also expecting some news on a new product.


I think we should work on some questions that we can send the board/DW. Or maybe even ask him in an interview. I'll kick off a new straw where people can add/amend questions.



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