Forum Topics VBTC VBTC Bear Case

Pinned straw:

Added 4 months ago

What a difference a few weeks can make.

After threatening to break out earlier in the year, Bitcoin has now quite decisively broken down below its post-election breakout range (around $90k at the lower end).

That opens up the pre-election highs (around $74k).

Highly volatile asset of course, so breakouts and breakdowns can quickly be invalidated in just a day’s price action, but skews bearish from a technical perspective.

The Trump-dump after the Trump-bump. Just like the man himself :)

BigStrawbs70
Added 2 months ago

$100K....we are back baby :) I’ll start by saying: DYOR.

I’ve been following Raoul Pal for a while now, and his content is excellent. What I particularly like is how he takes the broader economic environment and links it to what it means for Bitcoin. He’s not just some random guy throwing numbers around, there’s real data and reasoning behind his views. When you go back and look at what he’s said over time, his predictions do seem to play out directionally.

He explains his framework here. It’s 2.5 hours long, but really interesting and worth a watch even if you are not into Bitcoin, his views on the broader economy and how the debt cycle, liquidity, etc works (or doesn't work?) are worth listening to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6IraYngzgo

His latest update on where Bitcoin is at is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9wLPSqjTuM

You'll notice he’s also involved in the Sui and Solana space, although Bitcoin remains the basis for his views. So there’s a lot of good, or as the cool kids say, alpha.

Things could get interesting over the coming period of time.

DISC: Bitcoin is my largest holding, so my views are full of self-interest and extremely biased.

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wtsimis
Added 2 months ago

Thanks @BigStrawbs70 ill check this out.

Price action is looking very bullish and interest and adoption from mainstream coming from so many angles is so interesting when you have such a limited supply.

I have been diversifying (haha) with MSTR and MSTY as a income yield over the past couple of months .

Enjoy the ride .



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Saasquatch
Added 4 months ago

Volatility is vitality


Ones man's sell is another man's opportunity.

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Strawman
Added 4 months ago

No one said it would be easy.

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thunderhead
Added 4 months ago

Yes. Only it doesn’t do much psychological good if you buy, say 10-20% on the way down and watch it careen another 50%+ from there (been there, done that).

Still bullish longer term (and I couldn’t resist adding a bit to my position near current lows), but it could get more bumpy before it smooths out and finds its footing. That’s the message from the price action as things stand.

Needs to get back into that consolidation range to adopt a more neutral stance, and a decisive breakout to new highs will be bullish.

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thunderhead
Added 4 months ago

New three month low as things stand heading into the US open, and no sign of a sustainable bounce. Looks like I pulled the trigger a bit early, though it can all change again by Monday morning.

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thunderhead
Added 4 months ago

Sure enough...Hail Donnie Drumpf as the announcement of a strategic crypto reserve for the US caused a bounce big enough to send it well into its post-election trading range.

Not out of the woods, but looks a lot better than it was heading into the weekend.

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Mujo
Added 4 months ago

I have a feeling someone who funded Trump or on his staff pushes him whenever it starts falling. A lot of coincidence otherwise...

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thunderhead
Added 4 months ago

It will be totally in keeping with his grifter-like character.

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thunderhead
Added 2 months ago

Bitcoin had a good week to follow up an uncorrelated week with equities when markets were weak the previous week.

Above that key $90k odd level, and looks good to test its all-time highs again over the coming weeks.

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thunderhead
Added 2 months ago

It's been a while between drinks, but $100k has been reached again. TA-based bull thesis on track.

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