A collection of references and sources on key statistics, facts or considerations that are relevant to Biotech companies in general for investors doing analysis.
Please add to the forum topic any credible sources with information that helps study Biotech investments, these are key resources that I find helpful to forming mental or detailed value models for most Biotech companies:
Source: https://go.bio.org/rs/490-EHZ-999/images/ClinicalDevelopmentSuccessRates2011_2020.pdf
Synopsis: Provides % success rates for clinical progression from Phase 1 to NDA by Phase and disease area. Large sample size and from 2011 to 2020.
Source: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8854317/#CR16
Synopsis: Study of value & investor returns based on development stage, orphan status, number of indications and disease. Shows orphan status (7.2x, 46%), multi indication (2.9x, 21%) and oncology (4.3x, 26%) provided the higher values and investor returns. Data also on Phase values, times and probability of success.
Source: https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/examination-clinical-trial-costs-barriers-drug-development-0
Synopsis: Section 3 has clinical costs (USD) averages by Phase, this is old (2014) so doubling these due to inflation and increased base costs is needed, but only source found that provides general guidance on these costs in the US (Australia is cheaper and RnD Rebates reduce actual cost further).
Alternate Source: Same results. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/293640487_Key_cost_drivers_of_pharmaceutical_clinical_trials_in_the_United_States#pf5
Source: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2702287
Synopsis: Trial study from 2015-16 for Phase 3, Table 2 is interesting as it shows cost by disease, end point, design, Patient numbers and treatment duration.