Forum Topics Intro to valuation
Strawman
Added 6 months ago

Following on from our intro valuation session recently, I have built a version of the model we discussed and you can access it here:

https://strawman.com/blog/valuation/

I'm more than a little chuffed with myself. I have next to zero programming ability, but was able to put this together in under an hour with help from chatGPT. Everything from the HTML to the image to the tool tip text.

Software development is going to explode as this tech matures. The future is wild!

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SayWhatAgain
Added 6 months ago

Cool!

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lowway
Added 6 months ago

Give yourself a pat on the back @Strawman

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SayWhatAgain
Added 6 months ago

Hey @Strawman, just watched your intro to valuation, twas great! I recently dove headfirst into DCFs with Aswath's little book and YouTube videos, which are great, but I appreciate the (elegant) simplicity of the approach you showed. In keeping with Occam’s razor and the principle of parsimony, overly complex models with uncertain inputs tend to overfit and generalise poorly, so I wholeheartedly agree that “it is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong.” Please keep these coming, they’re very helpful for us newbies! Thank you!


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Clio
Added 6 months ago

@Strawman - thanks for the Valuation Basics workshop. I know we were all quiet - that's probably because, like me, everyone was busy taking notes! I really liked your simple approach. As an ex-scientist including higher maths, I long ago learned that the simpler a system is, the more likely it is to work. That your method involves only two variables to be estimated, and both can be predicated on real life inputs, is a real strength. Again, thanks for taking the time to share that.

And yes, I immediately went off to run the figures on four stocks I've got on my buy list and your approach has already been very helpful in firming up my intentions!

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lowway
Added 6 months ago

Yes, totally agree with the comments from both @SayWhatAgain & @Clio, thanks for the time and effort (and delay to your dinner) in taking everyone that was interested through the basics again. I never get tired of hearing the simple approach and the reinforcement of why such an approach, with some extracurricular research via AI and the web, is an option that is workable for a time-poor Nuffie like me!!

I remember reading your old blog and downloading the spreadsheet from the link in "Valuation for Beginners" 10th March 2023 @Strawman, but it was much nicer hearing it from the SM's mouth on this occasion. You got a big vote from me online for more educational content in a similar vein, so keep up the good work!!

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Strawman
Added 6 months ago

It was my pleasure, and all part of the service! It's always nice to receive a bit of praise but, honestly, these are the things you pay for and I see it as my obligation to try and deliver value as best we can. (It'd be better value if I cut back on all the waffle and prepared a more thoughtful structure..)

If there are other topics, or people want to go deeper down the valuation rabbit hole, I'm more than happy to schedule more educational sessions. Just drop a suggestion here or DM me and we'll make it happen.

Also, as mentioned, I strongly recommend the session by @Rick on the McNiven Valuation method: https://vimeo.com/914695836/f786859fe1 (you can get the associated material on the related forum thread here).

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Escapetrader
Added 6 months ago

Hi Andrew,

Is your 'intro to valuation' video available to view at a link?

Thanks in advance

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tomsmithidg
Added 6 months ago

@Escapetrader , it will be available under the Meetings tag, all the recordings are in that section.

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CheeseOnToast
Added 6 months ago

Thanks Andrew great session. Did you per chance make that Google Doc available anywhere?

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Summer12
Added 6 months ago

I was thinking the same thing, really enjoyed it, so informative and helpful.

Great meeting

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Strawman
Added 6 months ago

You bet -- you can access it here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k-N1qwr9Q8CN5E8udY2ZzHpMzNrN-FGnBvH0JlT1K0w/edit?usp=drive_link

It is set to view only, so once you're logged into your google account, go to file then "make copy" and you can play around and change it in any way you see fit.. Otherwise, go to download as Excel spreadsheet.



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