Forum Topics Thought provoking snippets
Bushmanpat
Added 4 months ago

I'm scrolling through the AFR while waiting at the airport, reading an article about optimists getting ignored in the news cycle while pessimists grab the headlines when this paragraph jumped out at me

So, you should ignore pessimists, right? No, they are nearly always worth listening to. They challenge the status quo and highlight what’s unsustainable – which, more often than not, is where the greatest opportunities lie. Those are the exact things that will likely change through innovation and drive markets forwards.

CBA anyone?

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Bushmanpat
Added 4 months ago

Optimism is not about a blind faith, oblivious to investment risks. It’s a belief in human progress and a willingness to invest in it.

As US tech investor Nat Friedman says: “Pessimists sound smart. Optimists make money.”

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Solvetheriddle
Added 4 months ago

@Bushmanpat i don't mind the pessimists that point out a flaw in a business model, or accounting issues, company-specific or industry-specific issues, i don't like the constant whine about bubbles, potential macro disasters and/or fiscal monetary collapse etc. I've lost plenty in the former but nothing that i can recall in the latter.

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Bushmanpat
Added 4 months ago

@Solvetheriddle the article did point out pessimists are useful for exactly the first reason you stated.

But they do get a lot of air time for correctly calling seven of the last two crashes.

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Strawman
Added 4 months ago

Pessimism definitely has an allure..and definitely agree it tends to sound smarter than optimism, which can come across as naive or Pollyanna-ish.

I forget who said it, but permanent pessimism is just another form of denial -- one that flatters itself with sophistication.

But I think there’s a big difference between those who are habitually pessimistic, and those who take a pessimistic view when the facts warrant it. The former can be exhausting, but the latter is entirely reasonable.

I liked how Morgan Housel put it: "Being skeptical is healthy; being cynical is lazy"

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BkrDzn
Added 4 months ago

I think with investing one has to be a glass half full cynic/skeptic.

In the smaller end of town or in story sectors like small tech/resources, one has to know when negative things matter as the market can ignore those aspects for a while. As an example, in resources in a case where even if the minerology looks tough (i.e. potential met risk) but during a resource expansion drill out, it doesn't matter for a while and good money can be made before that risk or "truth telling" matters.

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