Forum Topics GOLD GOLD Strawman GOLD Buy — Hedge or Heresy?
Colflan
Added 4 months ago

@Strawman — saw you picked up the GOLD ETF. Thought you were all-in on Bitcoin as the “money is broken” hedge? ???? Curious what’s driving the move — diversification, lower vol, or just tipping the hat to gold’s track record? Would love to hear how you see it sitting alongside BTC in today’s macro mess.

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Strawman
Added 3 months ago

Purely a function of the initial 20% weighting cap for positions on Strawman @Colflan. If I could up my weight in BTC, I would. But it's a similar thesis in that it should do well in a period of accelerating debasement -- even though that's a thematic I expect to play out over many years. Not that that's an expectation for the end of days, just recognition of the maths. There's just more US debt than can be serviced without rolling over and issuing new debt, and the private market wont be able to (nor want to) absorb all the necessary supply. Ultimately that means debt monetisation or, more simply, money printing (ie QE, yield curve control, open market operations and other euphemisms). It's necessary to keep the wheels on without outright default (which is unthinkable) and in some ways desirable (from the government's perspective) as it should help inflate the debt away over time. It's a tried and true playbook, even if it slowly screws over a lot of people.

BTC is my preferred exposure to this idea as it not only has the scarcity factor, which it shares with gold, but we just happen to be at this really unique point in history where it's also moving through an adoption S-curve. In the process, i suspect it also steals a good deal of gold's market share.

So it's really just that, as well as having excess cash in the portfolio i'm not (yet) sure where to deploy. I dare say it'll be the first position to be sold down if i do need to free up some cash for another buy.

Hope that helps and, as always, open to any push back on the thinking.

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