Pinned straw:
No one tell @Strawman I've done this, but I sold 40% of my Bitcoin stack at around USD $111k on Sunday night.
In general the decision has been led by my belief that the US tariffs are going to drive a massive hole through their economy and asset values will fall for a period thereafter. Will Clemente on X shared the below chart over the weekend that further reinforced that thinking. The latest US economic data has been moving in a stagflationary direction and I'd be surprised if a 25 or 50 bp rate cut next week will be enough to turn the tide.
I'm nowhere near certain that this is the top of this cycle. But having ridden these buys up from June 2022 at USD $22k to $111k, it feels like a good time to harvest a portion of those gains and move to a slightly more defensive posture (Like buying some of that ASX blue-chip AIM lol)
On a longer-term view, I'm still highly convicted on Bitcoin and will be holding my existing stack with a view to buying back in at lower levels eventually.
hi @Dangles
I have more faith in Trump, or more to the point I have faith in his ego…...like what you are saying Bigstrawbs? Well, let me explain.
I lean towards the view there is no chance the American economy will have any lasting or material crash while Trump is in charge. Not only was the last cyclical recession (ignoring Covid here) back when the iPhone was first released but this ego maniac just won’t let it happen, even if the tariffs are not offset by very low interest rates, either from the current board or his soon to be appointed cronies into the Fed, he will just print more and more money to stop it. To be a bit fair, printing money like there is no tomorrow is what all recent presidents have done.
So reflecting on that, I ask myself if money printing is good or bad for Bitcoin? Further, even if market conditions stay about the same, the money machine is still running 24/7.
Does that mean I think Bitcoin is going up for the rest of the year? I have no idea but I do know that the conditions and reasons Bitcoin (and even Gold) has got to where it is today, which include but are not limited to money printing, are not decreasing, in fact I would suggest they are only growing.
Of course the number 1 rule always remains…do what makes you sleep at night! So if selling some and enjoying those gains helps with that, then ‘do you’ for sure.
Each to their own @Dangles, but I saw this on Twitter today which may (or may not) be relevant :)
Phil Fisher on the single most important lesson to be learned from his career as an investor
