Forum Topics OCC OCC ASX Announcement

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

Prostate surgery effects.pdf

This could be a serious bump in use case. Have not heard it reported before (maybe I have not read widely enough). Prostate surgery is massively common and negative side effects are also massively common, much of it due to nerve injury. If Remplir can potentially reduce some of these side effects (incontinence, erectile dysfunction) it could become commonplace in urological surgery.

Nessy.

Disc - held IRL

mikebrisy
Added 3 months ago

@nessy this is great news, and my reading of the release is that this application is a genuine extension of the addressible market, as I haven't heard it referred to before.

Management are not the best at helping us to value the opportunity, so I've had a go as follows.

  • Let's say that over time, they can get 20% of the RARP market.
  • Now I'm not sure what the revenue per procedure is, but based on the US reimbursement code for collagen nerve wraps, it would be anywhere from AUD300 - 1000. Let's be reasonably conservative and say AUD500.
  • So if they get to 20% x 12,000 x $500 in Australia, that's $1.2m revenue per year. For the US we can easily say 15x that, so $18m. And so eventually, globally, that's probably a $40-$50m incremental revenue opportunity, over say, 5 years, Maybe more.


That doesn't sound much. But this is a company currently doing $7-8m in FY25.

It is too early to pop any corks on that one. We'd need to see the comparative outcomes data. But it is really encouraging seeing how hard the business is working with surgeons to pursue expanding the indications, even before we've had the first US sales report.

It just adds to my growing sense of positivism for this business. I'm not adding more yet. I want to stay disciplined and see the first US sales report as well as other metrics on numbers of accounts, number of procedures and numbers of re-orders etc.

Fortunately, $OCC isn't large on the radar screen yet, so I'm hoping the hype-cycle will stay away for a bit so I can build a decent position based on more data.

But, no question, good news.

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