Forum Topics ILA ILA Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Added 2 months ago

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Chagsy
Added 2 months ago

Hi @RMKD

as with all of these early stage biotechs that seem promising, how much cash have they got and how much are they going to burn through to get to where they need to go?

I believe they have <$7m with a trailing cash burn of $2.5m annually. But running a trial, even if small, costs a motza and takes a long time.

Any investment case needs to consider these numbers and the current deterioration in FDA processing times.

Their Marburg drug looks great, but…there are only ever 10s of cases worldwide and all in sub-Saharan Africa. So, for treatment of the disease is never going to make money. What happens if Western Governments decide not to have a strategic stockpile for something that might never happen?

In the US, long term thinking and planning for such events doesn’t seem to be in vogue.

C

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RMKD
Added 2 months ago

I did see a figure somewhere for the cost of the trial. At least this one wont need lots of humans! Ill see if I can find it. I think they need to replicate the earlier study rather than a typical human trial where you might start with 100 people and then need to expand it to 1000 in the next stage, for example.

Yes I dont think this is really intended to treat the limited number of cases in Africa. The angle is to counter bioterrorism.


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