Forum Topics SPZ SPZ SM Meeting

Pinned straw:

Added 2 months ago

@Strawman I really appreciate the "deep dive" on UK regulatory risk. Everything Paul said was consistent with my own research, other than his first hand view on it made me feel much more comfortable about the risks, i.e., low likelihood of an adverse outcome and the reasons for it.

Specifically, how the fines and recovery fees for local council car park escalate astronomically, as a strong reason why as adverse ruling is unlikely. Also, the shift in the consultation paper from referring to GBP50 PBNs historically now to GBP100 as a baseline.

It sounds like a change from 6 year recovery time to 3 years is one adverse outcome we might see, but I can't imagine the lost revenue would be material, unless it creates an incentive in the public to draw out their appeals / evasion of paying the PBN to run the clock down.

My bottom line is I have come out of the Strawman meeting reducing the likelihood of an adverse UK regulatory outcome. Which is a relief because, despite my selling down some, $SPZ remains my largest RL position.

Fascinated that Paul think US could surpass the UK in 1-2 years. Surely a slip of the tongue? But he did tease us referring to an update on the US in the New Year - presumably he'll reveal the metrics leading to the earnout result.

I was also really interested to hear Paul's accounting of the German experience. The country head appointment is a key decision, and it sounds like it took them some time to "remediate" a not-so-good decision. It will be interesting to see if the trajectory of Germany turns up going forward, as the market potential is significant.

Overall, a great meeting. Thanks!

GazD
Added 2 months ago

Just lfinished listening. Yes the thing you do at 230 in the morning when you can’t sleep.


anyways agree with the reduced chance of regulatory risk as cited by @mikebrisy significantly affecting the business because

1) the consultative processes don’t seem to be leading that way and

2) the data demonstrates a reduction in fine from 100 pounds to 70 pounds leads to a doubling of ‘contraventions’ In this setting revenue would actually be expected to increase!!!


more generally the growth runway has me excited about this business and it was also impressive to hear about the learnings which came from the (in retrospect) failed recruitment process in Germany

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Silky84
Added 2 months ago

The US revenue surpassing the UK almost made me spit out my coffee. It was said with rigor and conviction too so i actually dont think it was a slip of the tongue!

he also reaffirmed my belief that whilst the short term target is 3000 ANPR sites that the longer term goal is indeed much higher- he mentioned the number of 10 countries and 10,000 sites! Fascinating answer to andrews question about “what does everyone miss” paul specifically said what is missed is the long term growth runway!

fascinating stuff- SPZ genuinely has an opportunity to be a much bigger company in 10 years time.

i will be adding over the coming months


disc- held in RL 14% (3rd biggest position)

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Strawman
Added 2 months ago

A agree @Silky84 @mikebrisy --some good reassurances in the chat.

I'll share the transcript and notes later today.

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NewbieHK
Added 2 months ago

If US surpasses UK revenue within 1-2yrs then we are sitting on a sleeping giant. I guess the NY update on the US might shed more light on this comment!

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