Pinned straw:
I agree @Chagsy and @Seymourbutts A good win and cheering for more.
I've added a small amount today to my small position. Here's hoping I get to experience this "buying on the way up" thing I hear successful investors talk about.
@Seymourbutts Agree this is a solid win.
I’ve been watching ALC from the sidelines for many years waiting for some traction to get them consistently into +ve FCF, and gain traction with some bigger wins.
I think this is it and have taken a small position today. As you point out, not much will be represented in the numbers this FY, so suspect there will be plenty of other buying opportunities.
My AI assisted modeling gives me a broad range of outcomes depending on module uptake rate, time to implementation, ongoing software development costs etc
However, even base case predictions would produce a consistently profitable medium term. Downside from contract losses are likely low given the stickiness of their product and the nature of government contracts. Upside could be significant if they secure another large contract or upsell of existing smaller contracts.
On balance, I think the Upside potential outweighs the low probability of a downside event. The major issue is valuation and that’s where I run into difficulties one needs to assume a rosy future and a medium time frame to make 11c a good buy - another reason for a small starter position
Let’s see if they can kick a few more goals.