Forum Topics ARB ARB Chart Update & Historical char

Pinned straw:

Added a month ago

Mon 12th Jan

@Bear77 You peaked my interest. W3 is historically the strongest wave up. I noted you comments on US Trade tariffs.

Note: These charts are not time projects just levels they should hit or surpass all going well.

1 month chart

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3d, 1d Chart

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Bear77
Added a month ago

I don't follow technical indicators beyond basic uptrends, downtrends and trading range channels @Saiton - what I would say regarding Q3 for ARB is that their sales have progressively increased across the northern hemisphere over the past 20 years, with Google telling me just now that: In the financial year 2025 (FY2025), ARB Corporation's export sales accounted for 36.6% of total revenue. This figure includes all international markets, encompassing the northern hemisphere (e.g., USA, Europe, Middle East, Thailand), but a specific percentage solely for the northern hemisphere is not detailed in the available financial reports.

The reason I mention that is that because they sell predominantly 4WD vehicle accessories I do believe they would likely be busier leading into the Australian Summer and the Christmas/New Year holiday period, so their Q2 and then through summer into autumn Q3, however that's just Australia where ARB are fairly mature, still growing, but not in a mad rush, their main growth is now coming from overseas expansion, where obviously in the Northern Hemisphere the seasons are reversed. However, ARB also provide gear for snow treks etc so it's hard to say what the actual impact of seasons and weather is really having on ARB as they currently are.

They are rolling out stores in selective US' southern states, as shown below:

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That is why I said that there is a perception that US tariffs could negatively affect or even derail their US store roll-out, because ARB mostly manufacture their products in Melbourne, Australia and in Thailand, and those products are imported into the USA, and they also import some products from China into their warehouses globally, including the USA.

ARB currently own 50% of 4WP and ORW, being the stores being rolled out in the USA, however it is expected that ARB will buy up the other 50% of 4WP/ORW at some point in the future to become 100% owners.

I personally don't believe it's a significant issue, but I reckon it could be a factor contributing to the recent ARB share price downtrend.

For anyone who isn't familiar, here's a snapshot of how ARB has grown over the past 50 years:

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Disclosure: I recently increased my ARB position (on Friday) in my SMSF so ARB are now the largest position in my SMSF and my 3rd largest position across all of my real money portfolios. I also hold ARB here on SM.

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