Pinned straw:
Bridge of Expectations
As someone not unaccustomed to small exasperated voices demanding “are we there yet?” or “how much longer?” I’m actually developing an empathy for CEO Wayne Paterson when things just don’t pan out the way they are supposed to.
Q2 and, by extension half-yearly, results both out here today and overnight in the US have given few surprises.
The preparation for the trial to date has cost $41 million USD in the past 6 months, so we are averaging a 20.5 million USD burn per quarter with $28 million USD left for Q3 which we are near the middle of already.
Unfortunately, we are still no clearer on when the Oracle of the FDA will finish their examination of the newts innards, cross-referenced with the astrological charts, and declare that the tidings are indeed positive for science to begin.
In equity terms this is a most expensive time for delays. Presently at only 36 million shares and nearly no debt, one of Anteris’ strongest qualities could be eroded away in the matter of quarters if things aren’t rectified. It’s a bit like that period where a non-property investor is holding onto their old house after they’ve settled on the new — that bridging period just can’t be over quickly enough, and it’s definitely not sustainable in the long term.
If the special meeting in September doesn’t pass the proposal for the ASX waiver the board will have one more small 15% raise at low prices (generating only enough for a further quarter) before being entirely reliant on luck (in the form of options coming into the money), debt finance, or the collective wisdom of shareholders.
There is a brave and determined face to the filings — and that we now have 130 patients implanted is also impressive — but something really needs to break Anteris’ way. Like Wayne Paterson, every other shareholder, and Shaboozey all I really need is a little good news. Surely at some point fate has got to be left holding nothing but a hot deck, whereupon odds are that it shall indeed rain, amen.
Less than 6 months ago, and fortunes have indeed turned. I’ll have to buy Wayne a double shot of whiskey if I ever meet him. Well played.