Forum Topics CCA CCA Guidance upgrade

Pinned straw:

Added 4 months ago

Management just upgraded FY26 EBITDA guidance by 15%. A very timely call as your stock pick of the year on Friday @Wini! https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-03048884-2A1649665&v=undefined

Change Financial Limited (ASX: CCA) has announced its H1 FY26 results and upgraded its FY26 guidance.


  • H1 FY26 revenue (unaudited) of US$9.3m (A$13.9m), up 29% on H1 FY25

  • Rolling 3-year revenue CAGR increased to 25% for the period ended H1 FY26

  • Underlying EBITDA (unaudited) of US$1.8m (A$2.7m) for H1 FY26

  • FY26 revenue now expected to be between US$17.5m (A$26.1m) to US$18.5m (A$27.6m)
  • FY26 Underlying EBITDA expected to be between US$3.1m (A$4.6m) to US$3.8m (A$5.7m), a 15% increase at the midpoint compared to previous guidance

  • Expected to be net cash flow positive for FY26


Held IRL

twee
Added a month ago

Q3 update. Revenue of $4.3m down form $4.7m in prior December quarter mainly due to lower lumpy License & Professional Services (seasonal).

Platform revenue was only down $0.1m on the busy prior quarter. Q2 is seasonally high but also Q3 probably benefited from improvement in aud/usd. Active cards are growing well but transactional volume is flat (prepaid card growth rather than debt card growth). Overall, platform revenue is growing but only slowly and it remains a small component of revenue. The growth due to Sharesies is small, more client wins required to keep thesis intact. Addition of pipeline slide sometime to track in future.

I'm confident they will hit revenue guidance of $17.5-18.5m USD. I'd say unlikely they will exceed revenue guidance, so likely to meet expectations but not surpass them. Longer term there is perhaps more threat of competition from Cuscal in New Zealand too.

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twee
Added 4 months ago

Was pleasing, a very modest upgrade though. I was hoping for some more info on the platform usage metrics nothing on that yet.

Earlier today I did see some sharesies advertising for the 1% cash back card, keen to see if this has an effect in H2.

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Wini
Added 4 months ago

Better to be lucky than smart @Rick!

A guidance upgrade wasn't a bold call though, after the great 1Q if the seasonally stronger 2Q maintained that momentum they were run-rating above guidance.

I daresay that even the new guidance looks like it could be beaten, though it will require the lumpier licensing revenue to stay strong which is harder to forecast so I appreciate management's conservatism for now.

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