Forum Topics Stock Spotlight
Strawman
Added a month ago

We've just wrapped up our first Stock Spotlight session, where we talked through our thoughts on Nova Eye Medical (ASX:EYE).

The recording is on the Meetings page and the transcript is here: Nova Eye Spotlight Transcript.pdf

I wanted to say a special thanks to the incomparable @mikebrisy. It would have been a much less valuable session without your input and hard work mate. THANKYOU!

In the next week, i'll put everything together into a final report. I'll email it out when done.

In the meantime, what company should we deep dive into next? You can add your suggestions here

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Strawman
Added a month ago

I need more suggestions here people -- what stock do we want to focus on for our next deep dive?

Add your suggestion here

Given what's happened with ProMedicus, and the fact it has generated so much interest, i'm tempted to go with that. It really does seem like it could be a great buying opportunity.

At the same time, we already have a load of content on that, so maybe there isnt much left to say that has already been said?

For that reason, maybe we should go with something which the community hasn't spent much time on..

I'm torn. So need as much feedback as i can get!

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Bear77
Added a month ago

I'd vote for Pro Medicus @Strawman - from the very small and speculative end of health care / biotech (EYE) to the very large end (in Australian company terms at least). It would be good to talk about a company who are not cum-capital-raise and who do have clear market differentiation in terms of superior technology and user interface, etc, and with their recent sell-down which seems to mostly have been SaaS-related rather than company specific concerns, although there were some minor growth rate concerns clearly with PME, which is going to happen when they were priced for perfection-plus!! ...it's a great time to be discussing them because they are much more likely to be considered a buy here than they were last year when they were over double their current share price.

I'm not sure I can contribute anything of value to the discussion myself because health care is not within my sphere of competence (/wheelhouse), but I would imagine that you're going to generate more interest across the membership with a company like PME than you would with a much more speculative and riskier investment proposition like EYE.

P.S. Can you do this without a CEO/CFO/MD interview/meeting, coz not sure PME would have anyone available for a group like us...

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Karmast
Added a month ago

@Strawman If you were to do Pro Medicus, I'd love to hear the likely case for how investors can do well, even at the current price. It's on about 100 times earnings if you exclude the 4DX gain (as one should in my view). Yes, that's a lot lower than 300 times earnings a few months ago. And yes they are growing market share a lot and yes it's a wonderful business.

But it is a fairly stable, consistent business now - not one that has just turned profitable.

So, how likely is it that one could generate a market beating return owning Pro Medicus at 100 times earnings? How many times does that happen given the average market multiple is around 20, once one gets beyond the first couple of years post inflection? Is it a 50% chance or a 1% chance of working for part owners at this point in time?

I'm not suggesting it couldn't work out well but I can't make a case for it still, with any margin of safety...In my observation no stocks escape gravity for ever.

Just my humble opinion and happy to be proven wrong.

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mikebrisy
Added a month ago

@Strawman I’d also be up for a deep dive on $PME.

If we do, I want to do an update deep dive on the competitors, which is on my post-earnings season task list.

My recent valuation requires market leading performance for a long time. That’s not without precedent for a market leader, but it is a bold assumption.

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Strawman
Added a month ago

Just a quick update on this.. I'm close to nabbing someone from a company I know a lot of people will be interested in. Beaten down like many, but one of the best long term records on the ASX (over a very long time). If i can lock them in, i'm making a captains call in the next stock spotlight :)

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Bradbury
Added 4 weeks ago

@Strawman Thanks for putting this initiative together. Hopefully the next one lines up with when I have some more time to dedicate to it and can make it in person. Some potential unsolicited suggestions for the next spotlight?

  • Having some key topics / agenda to work around for the debrief session may help people come in slightly more prepared to be able to contribute? @mikebrisy did a fantastic job but having some structured topics highlighted before the session may help provide some jumping off points for those less confident?
  • Any chance of brining in a celebrity guest from your network of industry professionals?

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Strawman
Added 4 weeks ago

Yeah good ideas @Bradbury. I'll see what I can do


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jlozanol
Added 4 weeks ago

Just catching up on the report and posts over the weekend... massive effort Andrew and the team! Thank you for sharing.

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