@Raseekingalpha there are arguably worse case downside risks. In big pharma, R&D pipeline productivity and/or ability to make good molecule/platform licensing or acquisition decisions, is a major determinant of long term value creation. While I am not saying that $CSL will be unsuccessful there, I don't have a good conviction that they will. And if they are not, then they could be only part way through a longer term decline. That is enough of a reason for me not to own it, because (most of the time) everything I own is based on a long term thesis.

The prospect of another leadership transition (with another "CEO reset"), potential (deserved) future Board turmoil, an adverse current environment in the US for vaccines and vaccine research - for me - adds up to an unappealing cocktail when mixed with the base ingredient of questionable R&D success. This isn't a prediction, but it severely erodes my confidence.

I'll recap what I wrote before:

"In terms of valuation, it is entirely plausible to believe $CSL is now materially undervalued. I believe it probably is, although, as shown by @Strawman the business is not cheap for one with questionmarks over its growth prospects in the medium term, as well as questions about the productivity of its R&D portfolio and spend. For me, the question is as much what is the pathway for that value to be realised and recognised by the market. And I just see too many risks around that to have any conviction. It is better to rip the bandaid off."