Pinned straw:
Discl: Held IRL 3.45% and in SM
Have resisted the strong urge to top up WTC as it gradually fell off the cliff since Sep 2025. As it turns out, staying out all thi while was a really good thing as it has been nothing but falling knives since.
I thought WTC falling below the 43.23 level and below 40.00 was not a bad time to do a small top up of WTC at 39.56. But that level is now broken and the price is now moving to levels not seen for 4-5 years.
- The next level is 38.86 which goes back to May-June 2022
- After which 33.45, which goes back to July 2021
Given the volatility, am topping in very small bite sized chunks as each day brings new opportunity, but both these levels are my next top up points.
Great post @jcmleng here's my quick take!
WTC’s copped a hiding, but the core story hasn’t changed. It’s still the industry standard. Not perfect, not pretty, but deeply embedded — and that’s what matters.
The customer insights posted earlier were the real tell. A tech‑literate operator, already playing with AI, and still nowhere near replacing Cargowise. Not because he couldn’t build something, but because:
- it runs the whole operation
- it’s the system of record
- the business risk of DIY is too high
- AI helps around the edges, not at the core
- the cost is acceptable
That’s the moat.
Not hype — just inertia, integration, and the fact that nothing better exists.
AI doesn’t blow that up.
If anything, it makes the surrounding workflows easier, which only tightens the grip.
Price action is ugly, sure. Multi‑year levels, sentiment washed out. But nothing in the business has structurally shifted. Director buying isn’t gospel, but it tells you insiders aren’t seeing an existential problem.
For me, I’m adding below $40 in small, controlled bites. Not calling a bottom — just taking advantage of sentiment being out of whack with the fundamentals.
WTC is still WTC. That’s the whole point.
Disc: hold in real life, totally underwater about to hold in SM