Seems we had a couple of fizzers in the past 24hrs. Albo's much to do about nothing and DJT's usual circular narrative going nowhere in particular, flavored with the usual threats and ultimatums!!

Anyway, here's Chatty's view of the effect on markets for what it's worth. My view, hold tight if you're a long-term investor and good luck if you want to day trade this mess!!

Global Market View (Post-Address)

The key takeaway

Markets are not buying the “mission accomplished” message.

Instead, they’re pricing:

• Ongoing conflict risk
• Potential escalation
• Uncertainty around oil supply

In plain terms: risk is still elevated

1) United States (Wall Street)

Equities — cautious / slightly negative

• S&P 500 → soft / flat to down
• NASDAQ Composite → weaker (risk-off hits tech harder)
• Dow Jones Industrial Average → more stable

Why:

• Tech = sensitive to interest rates + risk sentiment
• War uncertainty → investors reduce exposure

Energy — outperforming

• Oil-linked stocks rising globally
• Reflects ongoing concern around supply disruption

Safe havens — rising

• Gold ↑
• US Dollar ↑
• Bonds ↑ (yields easing slightly)

Classic “flight to safety”

2) Australia (ASX)

Broad market — mildly negative

• S&P/ASX 200 → drifting lower

Sector breakdown:

Energy — strong

• Benefiting directly from higher oil

⛏️ Miners — mixed

• Bulk commodities (iron ore) holding up
• Growth commodities (like lithium) weaker

Financials — soft

• Economic uncertainty weighs on outlook

Consumer stocks — weak

• Higher oil → inflation pressure → spending risk

3) Europe

• Broad indices (like STOXX Europe 600) → slightly down
• Heavily impacted by:
• Energy dependency
• Proximity to geopolitical instability

Europe is more sensitive to oil shocks than the US

4) Asia

• Mixed to negative
• Export-heavy economies reacting to:
• Global slowdown fears
• Energy price risk

5) Oil — the centre of everything

This is the single most important market right now.

• Prices elevated
• Highly volatile
• Driven by risk to the Strait of Hormuz

If that route is disrupted:

• Oil spikes sharply
• Global equities likely drop further

6) What’s driving all markets right now

Three forces:

1) War vs “short war” narrative

• Trump: “Nearly done”
• Market: “Not convinced”

2) Inflation risk (via oil)

• Higher oil → higher inflation
• Central banks may delay rate cuts

3) Growth fears

• Conflict → trade disruption
• Energy costs → economic drag

⚖️ Market Interpretation (This is the important bit)

Markets are effectively saying:

“Even if this ends soon, the path between now and then is risky.”

That’s why you’re seeing:

• No panic crash ❌
• But no relief rally either ❌

Instead: defensive positioning

What would change sentiment quickly?

Bullish (markets go up):

• Clear ceasefire or negotiations
• No disruption to oil supply
• Faster-than-expected US withdrawal

Bearish (markets fall):

• Escalation (especially infrastructure strikes)
• Any issue in Hormuz
• Oil spike → inflation shock

Bottom line

Globally, markets are in a “wait and see, but lean defensive” mode:

• Not panicking
• Not reassured
• Positioned for continued uncertainty