Forum Topics PAR PAR Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Added a month ago

About time for an update on this one… I’ve been following this (and holding for gods sake) for more than 5 years. It’s finally approaching the proper binary event that is phase 3 trial results. Looks as though the interim results will be released in August. If they are positive I expect a massive spike in share price which will no doubt be followed by a cap raise to see them through the rest of the trial etc. given my confidence in the drug itself I might accumulate a little more between now and then.

The market cap sitting at 100mil for a business I believe is on the cusp of a disease modifying drug for OA is in @Strawman’s terms ‘an asymmetric bet’. That said, it’s a binary outcome and that’s enough to reasonably keep plenty of people on the sidelines.


‹ Paradigm Achieves 50% Patien...

PARAIGM

BIOPHARMA

ASX RELEASE

31 March 2026

V

Paradigm Confirms 50% of Patients Dosed in Phase 3 OA Trial

Enabling Progress Toward Interim Analysis

Key Highlights

  • 50% of patients now dosed in the global PARA_OA_012 Phase 3 study, which is on track consistent with the company's previously announced time schedule.
  • Interim dataset is on schedule to undergo independent statistical analysis, with results expected in August 2026.
  • Phase 3 study design closely aligns with the patient population and protocol of the successful PARA_OA_008 trial, while strengthening data quality and managing placebo response.

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals Ltd. (ASX: PAR) ("Paradigm" or "the Company") a late-stage drug development company focused on delivering new therapies to address unmet medical needs, is pleased to announce that 50% enrolment in the global Phase 3 PARA_OA_012 clinical trial has now been achieved, with dosing of the final participants required for inclusion in the interim analysis dataset having commenced.

Participants are followed from first dosing through the Day 112 assessment period in accordance with the study protocol.

Following completion of the Day 112 assessments, the interim dataset will undergo data cleaning and independent data monitoring committee (DMC) statistical analysis, which is expected to take approximately four to six weeks. Based on the current study timeline, Paradigm expects the interim analysis results to be delivered in August 2026.

The PARA_OA_012 study is designed to enrol 466 participants globally, with patients randomised to receive injectable pentosan polysulfate sodium (iPPS) or placebo. The primary endpoint of the study is the change in weekly average of daily pain at Day 112, with secondary endpoints including improvements in physical function, imaging-based structural outcomes, and safety assessments.

Patient recruitment continues across Paradigm's global network of clinical trial sites spanning Australia, the United States, Europe and Asia, as progression toward 100% enrolment is expected in the coming months.

The PARA_OA_012 Phase 3 trial has been designed to closely align with Paradigm's earlier PARA_OA_008 study, which demonstrated clinically meaningful improvements in pain and function. The two studies utilise a comparable patient population, the same dosing regimen of injectable pentosan polysulfate sodium (iPPS), and similar study duration and endpoints. Maintaining this consistency in trial design is intended to reduce development risk and support comparability across the clinical program.

Importantly, the PARA_OA_012 protocol also incorporates key learnings generated across Paradigm's earlier clinical studies, including the PARA_OA_002 dose-ranging study. These

Karmast
Added a month ago

I share your patience @GazD and am also eagerly awaiting the trial results in a few months. Given how far under water I am now it is an “asymmetric “ bet for me too from this point. Thesis still in tact - just a lot slower than first anticipated!

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Karmast
Added a month ago

I share your patience @GazD and am also eagerly awaiting the trial results in a few months. Given how far under water I am now it is an “asymmetric “ bet for me too from this point. Thesis still in tact - just a lot slower than first anticipated!

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Summer12
Added a month ago

That makes three of us underwater on this company.

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GazD
Added 4 weeks ago

Listening to Scott and Andrew/@Strawman on my run this morning and they were talking about when a business represents the best risk adjusted return.

my thoughts wandered to PAR. There is a world where the interim result is released is strongly positive and the share price doubles. If that happens the market cap will be ~ 200 mil for a business with positive interim phase 3 trial results for one of the most common conditions on earth.

I’m even if you don’t hold it might (emphasis on the might) pay to take a look at this stock. If you can work out what would constitute success at interim results you could be ready to buy in (if the market doesn’t recognise the importance of the results for example)…

for example if the weekly pain scores are statistically significantly different at the interim readout and the market cap ‘only’ doubles I’ll be loading up

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mikebrisy
Added 4 weeks ago

@GazD I agree with you. I’ve held a small RL "research" position since the last Brisbane meet up, when in a discussion at the end of the evening I was alerted to $PAR by either @Karmast or @Chagsy … I’ve forgotten which. Anyway, as a result of that discussion, I looked at the historical data and liked what I saw.

While the earlier trials lacked "power" the results are very encouraging, and I intend to modestly increase my position ahead of the interim read out, simply because that result, if positive, will likely (as you indicate) put this on the market’s radar, and my current 0.5% RL position is not enough to be worthwhile.

With the SP having fallen to $0.23 I’m thinking about adding now, as it will reasonably run up in anticipation of the interim readout.

Disc: Held

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GazD
Added 4 weeks ago

Thanks @mikebrisy The only two clouds on the horizon from my perspective are that they somehow can’t fund (but I understand they have the cash to get to interim so as long as results are good this shouldn’t be an issue) AND the chance that the results are poor. If the results are poor it’s zero in my view and time to sell for whatever cents in the dollar are left…

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mikebrisy
Added 4 weeks ago

Yes, when I last looked they can get to the interim. If that’s good, the SP will pop and then they’ll raise.

Like you I’ll sell if the interim is poor. I’m also treating it as a binary bet, even though they will try other things, if they can get the money.

If the interim is good, there’s a decent chance it gets taken out, for all the usual reasons.

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