0336 GMT - Qantas's bull at Macquarie reckons that the Australian carrier has the flexibility to adapt to any lasting impact from the Iran conflict. A note from one of the investment bank's analysts highlights the airline's ability to accelerate the retirement of older planes, which use more fuel and require more maintenance. The note also flags Qantas's ability to partially offset about A$700 million in additional fuel costs with up to A$250 million in extra revenue, including from price rises. Macquarie trims its target price 2.7% to A$11.00 and keeps an outperform rating on the stock, which is up 1.7% at A$9.135. ([email protected])

0308 GMT - Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the key debate over the pressure on Qantas Airways' near-term earnings is not whether it is cyclical, but how long it will last. The MS analysts tell clients in a note that recovery is likely. The Australian carrier's March-quarter update was better than they had feared, with Qantas showing both pricing and capacity discipline. They think the lack of clarity on how long the Iran conflict will elevate jet fuel costs and supply is the key source of both risk and opportunity. Fiscal 2027 earnings visibility is limited, but ultimately, they think investors will look past near-term risks. Target price falls 12% to A$11.00. Shares are up 1.7% at A$9.135. ([email protected])

0251 GMT - Westpac's response to the Iran conflict's impact on the Australian economy is seen by Jefferies analysts as a step toward major banks rebuilding their provisions toward pandemic-era highs. Jefferies had already updated estimates to reflect this scenario, and the investment bank's analysts say Westpac's new portfolio overlay for energy intensive sectors supports this expectation. They tell clients in a note that Westpac's provisioning will be just 8 basis points short of its pandemic-era peak. This is about 55 basis points above fiscal 2018 levels, they add. Jefferies raises its target price 0.1% to A$34.92 and keeps a hold rating on the stock, which is down 0.8% at A$41.14. ([email protected])

0250 GMT - Macquarie analysts see risk that increased provisioning in response to the Iran conflict offsets Australian banks' improved margins. They raise their margin forecasts across the sector in response to market expectations of two more interest-rate rises by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The positive impact is crimped by lower credit growth, but they nonetheless raise their FY 2027 earnings forecasts for the major banks by between 3% and 4%. However, they warn clients in a note that any deterioration in credit quality will be punished more severely and continue to see downside risk for the sector. National Australia Bank remains Macquarie's preferred exposure, supported by a share-price pullback and potential earnings upside. ([email protected])

0235 GMT - Qantas's bulls at Jarden say investors are right to look through near-term risks to the carrier from the Iran conflict. Maintaining a buy recommendation on the stock, Jarden's analysts tell clients in a note that the Australian airline has demonstrated capabilities to both reprice and lower capacity, which they see as rational responses to higher jet fuel costs. They think that Qantas has the balance sheet and flexibility on capital expenditure to ride out near-term volatility, citing its decision not to begin its A$150 million share buyback. Jarden cuts its target price on the stock by 11% to A$11.25. Shares are up 1.5% at A$9.12. ([email protected])

0005 GMT - Lithium demand continues to improve, but there is merit in taking profits from the sector, says Morgan Stanley. The bank has been overweight on lithium since December 2024 because it expected demand to surprise positively. "That remains the case, driven by accelerating Chinese electric vehicle exports and strong Energy Storage System demand," analyst Rahul Anand says. "However, improving Zimbabwe exports and possible Chinese licensing regime easing could add some relief." MS downgrades PLS to equal-weight, from overweight, with the stock above its revised price target of A$5.25/share. It stays underweight on IGO. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0003 GMT - Evolution Mining might slightly underperform peers after reporting higher-than-expected 3Q costs, says Ord Minnett analyst Paul Kaner. Evolution's 3Q all-in sustaining cost of A$2,220/oz is 9% higher than the broker expected and 16% above consensus, he says. Still, gains in gold prices overnight could offset the miss "given the large/liquid/relative operational delivery appeal in the name," says Kaner. The broker has an accumulate rating and A$13.10/share target on the stock. Shares are up 4.7% at A$13.81. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2352 GMT - Macquarie expects a solid 1Q performance from Woodside Energy, driven by liquefied natural gas output that likely beat market forecasts. Macquarie pencils in 1Q production of 43.7 million barrels of oil equivalent, ahead of consensus hopes of 42.5 million barrels. It points to data suggesting LNG output from the North West Shelf facility was strong in January, with the Pluto plant strong in March. "Focus will be on Woodside's ability to capture the commodity cycle (coming at a highly opportune time), and any offsets that could exist," Macquarie says. It retains a neutral call on the stock. "Meaningful upside in Woodside from here would require significant escalation in war impacts," Macquarie says. Woodside ended Tuesday at A$33.96. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2346 GMT - Virgin Australia's update points to consensus Ebit revisions of low single digit to mid single digit percent, says Citi. Virgin Australia signaled a A$30 million-A$40 million rise in its fuel bill due to the Middle East conflict. But it's benefiting from an acceleration in growth of revenue per average seat kilometer in 2H, albeit on lower capacity. "As a result, we estimate the net movement in revenue is minimal, and revisions in profit largely to the lower end of the fuel guide," analyst Samuel Seow says. He notes current consensus expectations are for Ebit of A$749 million. "With refining hedging reducing to 15% in 1H27, the question now is how far higher fuel costs will drag on in FY27," Citi says. It has a neutral call on Virgin Australia. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2341 GMT - Bank of Queensland's 1H earnings are likely to fall materially, says Morgans. But its share price is being supported by investors anticipating a capital return from the sale of its A$3.7 billion equipment finance book to Challenger. Analyst Nathan Lead downgrades BOQ to hold, from accumulate, noting the stock is trading broadly in line with Morgans's revised A$7.39/share price target. "BOQ's asset base is more concentrated than the major banks in the highly competitive home lending market," Morgans says. But it has scale, funding cost and technology disadvantages compared with the major banks. BOQ's 1H result on April 22 is likely to show a 15% sequential decline in EPS, Morgans says. BOQ ended Tuesday at A$7.40. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2313 GMT -- The 11% drop in Cleanaway Waste Management's share price since Feb. 27 looks overdone to Jefferies, especially when compared to a 2.5% drop in Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index over that time. Analyst Amit Kanwatia has little concern that Cleanaway's operations will be disrupted by fuel shortages. Trading conditions remain resilient. Cleanaway yesterday lowered its guidance range for FY26 Ebit by A$20 million, citing higher fuel and logistics costs. Jefferies expects Cleanaway to recover higher fuel costs using contractual pass-through mechanisms. "Cleanaway is forecast to deliver an EPS compound annual growth rate of 14.6% over FY25-28 and trades on an attractive 12-month price-to-earnings of 19.4x," says Jefferies. It retains a buy call on the stock. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires