Where I added that red line is where Albo and his merry band of halfwits were elected (2022), just for further reference. You can bet on another spike in this next budget, with 'cost of living measures' as the 'justification'.

The NDIS explains about half the increase, budgeted for ~$49b in 2024-25 this is 2-2.5% of GDP per the graph @tomsmithidg shows, so around half of the uplift from the dotted red line average. It’s implementation and expansion start the trend with Rudd/Gillard/Rudd, Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison did nothing to fix it and Albanese has let it rip.

Key NDIS Implementation Milestones:

• March 2013: The NDIS Act 2013 was passed in Parliament.
• 1 July 2013: Initial trial sites began in SA, TAS, NSW (Hunter), and VIC (Barwon).
• 2014-2015: Additional trial sites launched in the ACT, Northern Territory, WA, and more areas in NSW.
• 1 July 2016: The official, phased national rollout began.
• 1 July 2020: The NDIS became fully available to all Australians. 

I can accept the need for the services and some increase in spending to deliver, but the political cowardice on managing it and saying yes to everything for fear of criticism has lead to it being totally out of control. 

Easy to keep spending other people’s money and keep your job – incentives matter.

Anthony "let it rip" Albanese

He's letting the NDIS and immigration rates face off for biggest increase YoY