Forum Topics OCC OCC ASX Announcement

Pinned straw:

Added a month ago

Regenerative devices company $OCC announced an important step forward in the US today with approval from across the DoD and Veterans Affairs Health organisation for Remplir.

ASX Announcement

Orthocell has secured approval for its Remplir peripheral nerve repair device to be sold across the U.S. Department of Defence and Veterans Affairs hospital networks, comprising 51 DoD military hospitals and 170 VA medical centres. This is a meaningful US channel expansion, adding to the 32 Value Analysis Committee approvals already secured (covering 115+ hospitals) and 57 further VAC applications pending. The company's existing 17-state U.S. distributor network will be the primary vehicle for reaching military and VA surgeons within these newly accessible facilities.

The announcement leans heavily on recently-announced, real-world validation from Ukraine, where Remplir was used in 23 surgical procedures on injured soldiers across both primary and secondary nerve repair indications. Orthocell frames this combat-theatre experience as direct evidence of the device's portability, ease of use, and suitability for the trauma profiles typical in military healthcare. While this might be argued a logical and credible narrative for this particular channel, it is important to remember that the lion's share of the VAH is directed at veteran's and their dependents, often long after they have left the service. So the announcement should, to my way of thinking, be considered in the context of a large public health opportunity, rather that the conflict-linkage to Ukraine.

From a commercial momentum perspective, the release is careful to note that this approval arrives alongside what management describes as "increasing revenue traction" in the U.S. market more broadly. The key execution question, as always with OCC, will be conversion: approval and access are necessary but not sufficient conditions, and the density of the existing distribution footprint across the 221 newly accessible facilities will determine how quickly this translates into incremental revenue.

Now, the 221 "accessible facility" opportunity is significant. For comparison, in early 2025, $OCC indicated that Remplir was being used in 169 facilities in the ANZ market. So this one approval arguably unlocks an even larger TAM in one go.

The market has responded strongly today, SP up anything from 10%-20%. But here a note of caution should be applied. The blanket DoD and VAH approval essentially puts Remplir on the formulary list. However, DoD and VAH isn't a monolithic, centrally controlled organisation. From my understanding, individual facilities or local groups of facilities will have their own VACs which will require a local clinician champion to apply for approval. So this really still comes down to how good is the distributor network works together with the small $OCC US-based team to drive adoption.

My Overall Takeaway

I'm OK with today's SP reaction, mainly because I think the market is undervaluing $OCC. However, I consider the SP reaction reflects a naive view of what the VAH approval means in practice. Proof of my investment thesis relies on the quarter-by-quarter momentum of sales and other leading indicators I have written about at length before.

Good news, but it doesn't change the key measures I'm tracking.

Disc: Held

Lisa_Llama
Added a month ago

I'm kicking myself. I (thought) I had put a top-up order in yesterday. After seeing the 'upward volatility' today, I realised I mustn't have hit the confirm button to submit my order.



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mikebrisy
Added a month ago

@Lisa_Llama I'm not sure there's any hurry to buy this one. The Q3 metrics are pretty much all out there, ... the US growth is at a very early stage, so there is a big open question as to whether the product get's real traction in the US market. I wouldn't at all be surprised if in the day's and week's after the Q3 webinar, SP slowly falls back. I don't yet think they have the evidence for it to beak away.

One Bear Thesis I have is that Remplir got good traction in ANZ because Axogen didn't have a very switched-on agent. From what I've been able to learn, Axogen and others are more well-establised in the US. Although $OCC say that they are competing for the suturing "white space", my hypothesis is that a significant portion of the market will come from existing device users who are prepared to try Remplir to get better outcomes claimed by $OCC. So that means product-to-product competition, which means the distributors will be influencing switching decisions, which is a harder sell. In that scenario, Remplir's US revenue build is harder than we've seen in ANZ, and so the question is whether partial coverage of a 7-10x market is enough to drive favourable business operaring economics. Maybe, maybe not.

$OCC is my current small cap medical devices bet, .... I have a 6% RL ASX position after today and am still below my average weighted cost at today's close. I'd be prepared to add quite a bit more, but only if there are strong signs that the thesis is playing out. And those signs aren't there yet.

The key metrics I am watching now are:

  • # US hospital accounts and VAC approvals
  • # US surgeons using, and strong % repeat users
  • # units sold per quarter


If $OCC is going to be a winner, then we need to see significant acceleration on these over the next 2 quarters. With limited data flow, I think there is going to be significant opportunity for the marker to lose patience over the next 6-months.

The prostate indication is a wild card, and depending on how strong the early patient data on that is, then that could strengthen the Bull Case.

I think we are very much in a place where patience and vigilence will be rewarded, that it unless one or more instos. start trying to build a position.

The ASX is littered with serial underperforming medical device companies!

I believe that CY 2026 is a critical one for $OCC. For me the jury is still out.

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Lisa_Llama
Added a month ago

I agree with your assessment, & fully appreciate that in the long run it will have negligible impact. But there's still a psychological bruise when you see a 24% jump that you missed from your own lapse in attention.

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