0257 GMT - Morgan Stanley analysts raise their impairment charge forecasts for Australia's major banks and expect cautious commentary from the lenders over the next month or so. MS analysts trim their loan volume forecasts by an average of 1% across the big lenders and now expect impairment charges to be an average 33% higher than previously forecast. They tell clients in a note that Westpac's announcement ahead of its May 5 1H result that it will increase its collective provision coverage is consistent with this thesis. They expect ANZ, National Australia Bank and Commonwealth Bank to follow suit. ANZ and NAB are scheduled to report 1H results May 1 and May 4, respectively. Commonwealth, which is on a different reporting schedule, will publish a 3Q trading update May 13. ([email protected])

0221 GMT - Australia's job market remained solid in March, but things should weaken from here, says Abhijit Surya, economist at Capital Economics. The labor market is downstream of economic activity, and it could take a while for cracks to show up, he says. The pressing concern for the RBA will be the continuing surge in price pressures, he adds. Indeed, with inflation on track to approach 5% by midyear and inflation expectations rising in tandem, the case for further policy tightening remains compelling. Capital Economics expects the RBA to deliver two more hikes, taking the cash rate to a peak of 4.60% in 3Q. ([email protected]; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0108 GMT - CSL's bulls at UBS continue to see valuation support for the stock despite challenges from pricing, demand, and energy costs. The investment bank's analysts keep a buy rating on the vaccine and blood-products manufacturer, citing structurally sound demand for immunoglobulin and unchanged medium-term growth assumptions. They tell clients in a note that temporary oversupply in the U.S. is weighing on pricing but expect subdued plasma collections to help address this. Less positively, they see little evidence of the recovery in Chinese demand necessary to improve albumin sales growth. Cost inflation is also an emerging headwind, they add. UBS cuts its target price by 13% to A$205.00. Shares are down 2.1% at A$136.58. ([email protected])

0100 GMT - Virgin Australia's bulls at UBS reckon that the domestic carrier's revenue per seat kilometer is still growing faster than its capacity. Maintaining a buy rating on the stock, the investment bank's analysts tell clients in a note that they expect the airline's June-half revenue per average seat kilometer to grow by 5%. This compares with their prior forecast of 3%-4%. At the same time, they pare their capacity growth forecast for the same period to 1%, from 2% previously. They say that Virgin Australia's response to uncertainty over fuel costs and supply hasn't changed their positive investment view. They see valuation as attractive relative to larger rival Qantas. Target price rises 1.2% to A$4.15. Shares are up 1.0% at A$2.545. ([email protected])

0052 GMT - Xero's bulls at UBS see several potential catalysts for the stock to rerate despite ongoing worries about AI-driven disruption. Reiterating their buy rating on the stock, analysts Lucy Huang and Ailsa Lei tell clients in a note that the accounting-software provider's fiscal 2027 guidance and any positive news on growth at its Melio payments unit could spark the stock. Xero is expected to issue guidance next month when it reports its fiscal 2026 result. UBS forecasts fiscal 2027 revenue of NZ$3.59 billion and Ebitda of NZ$884 million. The latter is about 2% ahead of consensus. Huang and Lei add that the market is not fully appreciating Xero's defensiveness against the threat of AI or the value in Melio. UBS cuts target price by 27% to A$127.00. Shares are up 5.9% at A$79.56. ([email protected])

0013 GMT - Nufarm's annual earnings could positively surprise, signals Morgans. Nufarm pointed to 1H underlying Ebitda of A$239 million-A$244 million, up 17% on a year ago at the midpoint of the range. Nufarm has benefited from higher Crop Protection margins, growth in Hybrid Seeds and a stronger performance from its emerging Omega-3 and bioenergy platforms. It's also targeting an additional A$50 million of cost savings. "Given the appreciation in active ingredient and fish oil prices, Nufarm's previous FY26 guidance could prove to be conservative," analyst Belinda Moore says. Morgans keeps a buy call on Nufarm, partly on expectations that the crop-chemicals industry will continue to consolidate in coming years. It wouldn't be surprised if Nufarm becomes an M&A target. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0000 GMT - Virgin Australia's bulls at Jarden think investors should gain confidence from the carrier's rational response to uncertainty over fuel costs and supply. They point out that Virgin could have leveraged its strong financial and strategic position, derived from its conservative hedging strategy, to extract profits or drive incremental domestic market share. Instead, they see it navigating a challenging industry environment by managing capacity and pricing. Jarden's analysts tell clients in a note that this rationality, which they also see at larger rival Qantas, can underpin investor optimism for the 2027 fiscal year. Jarden cuts its target price 5.0% to A$3.80 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is at A$2.52 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2355 GMT - Genesis Minerals appears to have posted a solid quarter, says MA Financial analyst Paul Hissey. Production, costs and cash flow are better than MA's estimates, Hissey says. "Better head grades look to have driven the production beat, so we'll need to dive into the minutiae to see where additional material has come from and what that may mean for the coming quarters," he says. Hissey sees little risk it disappoints on FY 2026 guidance now. A five-year outlook does appear to have slipped into 1Q FY 2027, but that's unlikely to unsettle investors given the strong gold-market backdrop, he adds. "Ultimately, this stock remains a market favorite for the consistency of delivery and this quarter appears no different." MA has a buy rating and A$8.40 target. Shares ended Wednesday at A$6.73. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2349 GMT - Crop-chemicals supplier Nufarm's trading update was encouraging, says Jefferies. Nufarm signaled 1H Ebitda of A$236 million-A$244 million. Analyst Ramoun Lazar says that is in line with consensus forecasts of A$240 million. Also, Nufarm pointed to positive momentum into April with supply chains operating normally. Still, Jefferies sticks with a hold call on the stock when raising its price target by 3.1% to A$2.66/share. "While positive, leverage remains high for a business with volatile earnings, and we would like to see more evidence of stabilization in crop-protection markets given pressured farmer profitability," Jefferies says. "Nufarm is heading in the right direction, but shares are already priced for further improvement." Nufarm ended Wednesday at A$2.47. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

Jefferies takes a more bullish view of liquefied natural gas prices. Since the Middle East conflict began, average Japan Korea Marker prices have risen to US$20 per million British thermal units, from US$11 per million British thermal units in January and February. Analyst Amit Kanwatia says Origin, which has a 27.5% stake in the Australia Pacific LNG export project, benefits from LNG prices staying higher for longer as a result of the dislocation in global energy markets. "Japan Korea Marker assumptions increase to US$14.4/mmbtu (+28.7%) in FY26, US$14.5/mmbtu (+43.7%) in FY27 and US$12.1/mmbtu in FY28," Jefferies says. Higher LNG prices drive an average Ebitda uplift of 6.3% for Origin over the next three years, it estimates. Jefferies has a buy call on Origin. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires