Weighing in on the $COH discussion, although I tend to focus a lot of my time on the medtech/healthcare sector, I've never been excited by $COH as an investment.

With such an established business, I ask myself three key questions:

1. What has the EPS growth rate been over the long run (5-10 yrs)?
2. What in the company strategy, incl. technology and market positioning indicates that the future might be different from the past?
3. Where does the valuation and multiple sit with these in mind?

In the case of $COH, FY16-FY25 EPS growth was around 7%. Yes, it was hit by COVID and the supply chain aftermath, but then it was also able to benefit from the recovery period, so that FY25 is a reasonable point in time for the recovery to be complete (comparing to the similar fortunes of the other manufacturers in the healthcare space, such as $RMD).

In terms of the strategy and market positioning, while $COH has proven to have a strong moat evidenced by its remarkably durable market share, and the oligopolistic market structure (top-3 players c. 90% market share), the business has more of the characteristics of a stable /defensive nature, than necessarily a strong growth narrative.

Which brings me to the 3rd point - valuation. At end of FY25, the P/E was around 50, which I considered grossly over-valued given the answers to 1. and 2.

With a forward P/E now in the ballpark of 20x, $COH clearly now warrants a harder look. However, I don't believe it necessarily reflects compelling value. I'm more inclined to view the 9yr EPS growth rate of 7% than the figure you get from more recent years (10-11% last 3 years). And that's because the starting point of the shorter timeframe is right in the middle of aftershocks of the pandemic.

If you believe that in the future (FY26 aside) it will sustain an EPS annual growth rate of >10%, then at $100 $COH represents a great investment today. However, if you think long term its performance will revert to the mean of more like 7%, then the decision is more finely balanced. I do not have a sufficiently developed understanding of $COH or its product market to be able to discriminate between the two, so I'm not a buyer today.

Unlike the product recall incident years ago referred to by @Bear77 in that case the decision was easier. Provided you believed that the recall root cause did not reflect a systemic operational weakness in the business or a fundamental product flaw, it would be fair to have believed the market over-reacted, and a valuable entry opportunity was presented. Here it took a few weeks for the SP to bottom out, with a few "dead cat" bounces along the way. I say, this was an "easier decision", but that is with the benefit of hindsight. In medical devices product recall issues can be near-existential threats. For example, the Phillips CPAP product recall shock waves have rippled for years, and the business has still not yet recovered, and perhaps it never will.

Back to value, heading into the product recall, $COH's P/E was around 23x and, even with the short term suppression in earnings included, the P/E fell to 16-18x - not representing a "deeply distressed" price, but it certainly represented value for investor willing to take a long term view.

I'm not sure how much effort I will put into $COH, but perhaps it would be an interesting candidate to "Spotlight". There might be value on offer here, but I don't see it as a slam dunk, and that's partly because I don't full understand reasons for those elements of the downgrade that aren't attributable to Fx, and Middle East etc. Understanding customer behaviour and any trends there sound pretty important to me.

Disc: Not held

My 2c, i was at the WAM gabfest today, my first and maybe my last......so just listened to the COH recording

COH downgrade about $135m npat, -30%, restructuring -$20m, FX -$25m, still plenty in operations, apparently upgrades were fine, so the weaknesss is in the core cochlear implants and it is huge.

mentioned US and European hospitals downgrading priorities on implants due to capacity--the obvious question is when will that end--the answer dont know, china eliminating rebates, ME war (of course), and also poor consumer sentiment reducing the pipeline, that is people dropping out.

COH mgt mentioned that thye do not believe they are losing share, so implying a market issue not a competior issue, that has to be true to consider buying the stock. idk

the thing that has always intrigued me is that COH had the most fragile consumer exposure of the aussie health stocks but traded at the highest Pe, the consistency of growth was the lowest. that means that discretioanry demand is more important. most others companies are saying the US consumer is still strong....I would need more evidence of a braoder downturn.

when i look back at my biggest misatkes over the last couple of years they crowd into buying into earnings downgrades of quality comapnies, because those issues last a lot longer and if i dont accurately pinpoin the issue or other issues emerge, and in fatc the remedy is much more complicated, it ends up a disaster.

i ahve owned COH in the past, ill let it stew for a while longer thsi time.

The real question for me is how low can it go this time around, fundamentally I think it is still a great company, down 40% in a day starts screaming a buy to me. Or are we looking at the falling knife scenario?

In the last 9 years we also had covid @Strawman , i am thinking this as a cyclical headwind, which are middle east , a reduced implantation in usa.

its competitors also reducing their guidance.

another thing is in europe there were employees striking for higher wages in hospitals i guess it as spain & germany