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Pinned straw:

Last edited a month ago

Never tell me the odds…

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[ASX Announcement 28/04/2026]

When a company makes a price sensitive announcement after the end of trading it’s an odds on chance that it is going to shift the price one way or another upon next opening. This one happens to be good news. However, there have been times I’ve held on too tight to Anteris in the past — and I’m kind of just enjoying taking a hands-off approach to the equity markets for the first time in a long time this year. It has shone through in the diminished quality of my research though, an example of which is as follows:

Pablo E. Bruh: In less than 50 words tell me how much of a big deal is Anteris securing CMS reimbursement for the Paradigm trial.

R2D2: It’s a very big deal. CMS reimbursement de-risks the PARADIGM trial Anteris, validates clinical credibility, lowers cost barriers, and signals a clearer path to U.S. adoption—materially boosting Anteris Technologies’ commercial prospects and investor confidence.

Pablo E. Bruh: On a scale of 1 to 10. 10 being highest. To nearest two decimal points.

R2D2: 9.20

Pablo E. Bruh: Explain your work…in less than 35 words.

R2D2: CMS backing for the PARADIGM trial Anteris reduces funding risk, validates evidence quality, and accelerates U.S. adoption pathways—major catalysts for Anteris Technologies, though not full approval (hence <10).

The NASDAQ tonight will show whether Wall St analysts feel the need to move on this quickly, or if they will just wait to see if it actually does cause the US trial centres to move faster. It can be hard to tell sometimes what is actual news and what is something these experts have already factored in.

As for me, I’ve already placed my bets a long, long time ago. I still think I’m on a winner, and this sort of news is always positive and thesis-affirming. It is just taking much longer to play out than I anticipated.

mikebrisy
Added a month ago

@PabloEskyBruh I’ve not caught up with this properly, but isn’t this what the company has always said it expected to happen? I.e. it was expected by the market. Because TAVR is standard of care with established reimbursement, and DurTAVR is a "next gen" TAVR, then approval during a pivotal trial is not uncommon. That said, now the approval is in, it derisks trial timeline, so there should be a positive reaction.

I’ve been meaning to add to my initial research position, but looks like I might need to wait. If I can get in tomorrow sub $8, I might add some. But there is a long way to run on this one, so it’s important to me not to overpay.

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PabloEskyBruh
Added a month ago

To some extent @mikebrisy, but I think this was more of a “would be nice to have”, rather than being essential or guaranteed. I think the plan was always for insurance companies to pay for at least the Sapien and Evolut operations and perhaps just the hospital costs of the DurAVR ops at most. I think this also makes it more economical for the DurAVR procedures themselves — as well as opening up recruiting to otherwise uninsured older Americans. I’m unconvinced that it was guaranteed, and hence factored in, but we will see.

Probably sensible to wait. However, I feel the stage is set for a large inflection point soon (in the relative scale that is my 10 year investment) and I don’t trust my ability to either time it or predict the exact development which is the one to cause the re-rate.

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