@Lisa_Llama ... someone should ask Howie what he considers is a fair value based on fundamentals for a firm that never generates free cash. IMO the market is pricing a reasonable likelihood of that scenario. I do feel somewhat for this management team, as they have to put a brave face on things, while not really holding any cards.

It is too early to rule out that sales continue to build progressively to reach a meaningful 4-year plataeu, but I don't have much confidence that will happen. Still, it is worth keeping half an eye on for 5-minutes each quarter because if it does, a 3 cent share can quickly become a 10-15 cents one. But equally, it can become a 0.3 cent share or worse.

I said they don't hold any cards, but that's not true. They hold $50.8m pro forma cash and they have a skilled derma sales force and platform.

If they are going to act perhaps they need to strike before the cash dwindles materially again. So I reckon Howie is trying pretty hard to license in another drug, so that they can leverage the cost base and skill of the sales force. Of course, any seller can see they are a "distressed buyer" (if there is such a thing), so it will be a tough negotiation to get something that is immediately accretive on an operating cash flow basis, and there's little margin for error. Watch this space, I guess.

I think they are maybe hoping to get enough traction that the options with the last raise are worth taking up and that would effectively give them another 45m?

Any gain from the new API won't be seen for a long time as they are sitting on 30m of inventory, should still be noted that in the last 4C when they didn't purchase any API they still had big product costs.

They still have the Kreos debt facility payments to deal with as well, unless they can keep it interest only a bit longer.

There was an ok uptick in the symphony script numbers the last month or so, maybe the breakout but it needs to come a long way to get to break even. I would be thinking some snouts need to be removed from the management trough, if they were going to add to the platform you would think they would have done it already.

They will probably burn another 10m next Q and be on the borderline of <2Q of funding remaining with another raise. Remember when they were asked about a raise in the Jan webinar, kept quiet and then proceeded with the house of horrors discount + options mega dilution raise.

"My scenarios are also almost certainly influenced by a negative stance on this business and the fact I have no skin in the game." I would have to say I am in the same boat, trying to adopt a glass half full but when I go through the long list of deceiving statements from management I wouldn't give them any benefit of the doubt.

what value do all the top-level management give when they are essentially running a steady state single product sales show into the ground? They sure have given a lot of value so far unless you award points for destruction of company.

only half positive is they kept the scripts the same level during the colder months but they also added 25 reps over that period.

Preview of the next update: