0433 GMT - ASX gets a new bull at UBS, where analysts say a strong revenue outlook more than offsets the market operator's rising costs. Raising their recommendation to buy from neutral, the analysts acknowledge that ASX has raised its fiscal 2026 cost guidance three times. However, they see potential for ASX to beat consensus EPS forecasts for the June half thanks to volatility from the Iran conflict. They tell clients in a note that the outlook for futures trading is brightening and that they anticipate higher sustainable volumes and upside from ASX's new equity post-trade revenue model. UBS lifts its target price 11% to A$65.20. Shares are up 4.9% at A$60.69. ([email protected])

0410 GMT - UBS analysts see operating headwinds buffeting Australian childcare operator G8 Education into its next fiscal year. The investment bank's economists expect the country's central bank to keep raising interest rates through 2026 in an effort to restrain consumer spending. This will put pressure on G8's occupancy levels, the analysts write in a note. Occupancy in fiscal 2026 is already down by 7.9% from a year earlier and the analysts now incorporate further underlying headwinds of 1.5% for both the fiscal second half and the first half of fiscal 2027. UBS slashes its target price 50% to A$0.19 and stays neutral on the stock, which is flat at A$0.165. ([email protected])

0303 GMT - An AI-driven selloff of Australian tech stocks looks indiscriminate to Morgan Stanley analysts, who tell clients in a note that many have underappreciated defensive characteristics. The MS analysts acknowledge that AI tools have materially reduced coding time and costs, but tell clients in a note that many software products have layers that cannot be easily replicated. Citing REA Group, WiseTech, CAR Group, Xero and Pro Medicus as their key picks, the analysts highlight proprietary data, integrations and network effects as important differentiators. REA is 61% owned by News Corp. News Corp is the parent company of Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. ([email protected])

0256 GMT - Australia's real-estate owners would be largely unaffected if department-store operator David Jones ceased trading, Morgan Stanley analysts say. With local media reports suggesting that the 188-year-old chain is struggling, MS analysts tell clients that a collapse of the Anchorage Capital Partners-owned retailer would have no earnings impact on ASX-listed REITs, including SCentre, Vicinity Centres and GPT. This is assuming that landlords backfill the capacity with smaller or specialty tenants, they write. The analysts point out that shopping-center landlords have been managing department-store rationalization for years, with SCentre even growing sales at six malls that have repurposed department-store space since 2020. ([email protected])

0211 GMT - WiseTech Global's bull at Citi expects Danish freight-forwarder DSV is close to revealing how much of its business will head the way of the Australian logistics-software provider. Analyst Siraj Ahmed says his base case scenario is that DSV will shift much of its needs from WiseTech's CargoWise platform to the Tango platform that came with its 2025 acquisition of DB Schenker. He expects DSV to clarify its plans at its May 12 capital markets day. Ahmed adds that DSV could continue to use the Australian logistics-software provider to manage its customs compliance. Citi has a last-published buy rating and A$65.35 target price on WiseTech shares, which are up 5.0% at A$43.38. ([email protected])

0152 GMT - Mineral Resources reports a "constructive quarter that de-risks delivery despite near-term disruption," says RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker. Volumes are softer on quarter, but that is largely explained by weather and the timing of shipments, he says. Annual volume guidance is upgraded across Onslow, lithium and mining services, Peker notes. "More importantly, lithium pricing was strong (marginally beat), and these added volumes are being delivered into a strong market, driving earnings upside and accelerating deleveraging," he says. RBC has an outperform rating and A$65.00 target on Mineral Resources. Shares are up 6.3% at A$65.77. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0115 GMT - South32's improved scale, mine life and resource confidence at its Taylor development is overshadowed by a roughly $1.1 billion capex increase and one-year delay, says RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker. The miner's update on the project "is a clear capital reset," he says. Peker says returns remain acceptable, with an estimated internal rate of return around 19%, albeit on higher commodity prices. "While remaining capital risk is lower from here, the damage to capital efficiency and returns is already done, shifting Hermosa firmly into the higher-risk, longer-dated category," he says. RBC has an outperform rating and A$4.70 target on South32. Shares are down 7.5% at A$3.94. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0110 GMT - Jefferies had expected cautious commentary from Woolworths given the political environment, but not an earnings downgrade. Woolworths said it still expects Australian food EBIT to increase by mid- to high-single-digit range percent in FY 2026, but no longer at the upper end of the range. The downgrade appears driven by the final two to three months of FY 2026, says analyst Michael Simotas. That implies a very weak run rate into FY 2027. "Woolworths appears to be planning to absorb material component of inflation, suggesting the industry won't be as defensive as most think," Jefferies says. "We expect circa 4% FY 2026 consensus downgrade with larger FY 2027 downgrade and multiple compression." Woolworths is down 6.3% at A$34.94. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0106 GMT - Codan's trading update pointed to stronger-than-expected profit margins in its communications business. Still, UBS says Codan's lofty valuation keeps it neutral-rated for now. Codan now expects communications revenue growth at the top end of its 15%-20% guidance range for FY 2026. It also says the division could achieve 30% profit margin in FY 2026, a year earlier than previously thought. Analyst Evan Karatzas likes Codan's exposure to three macro themes: gold price strength, defense investment and public safety. "We estimate these end-markets will help underpin a strong three-year cash EPS compound annual growth rate of 37%," UBS says. But with the stock currently trading on a FY27 price-to-earnings multiple of 41X, UBS thinks it is fairly valued. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0057 GMT - Mall owner Scentre loses a bear in UBS as it moves to overhaul some of its debt. Analyst Solomon Zhang expects Scentre's tender offer for some A$1.8 billion of subordinated notes to drive stronger earnings growth in FY 2027. UBS now expects Scentre's earnings in FY 2027 to rise by 4%, double the pace it had previously forecast. "We estimate that a full refinance of the sub notes would drive 4.5% earnings accretion," UBS says. It upgrades Scentre to neutral, from sell, and raises its price target by 8.6% to A$3.80/share. Scentre is up 0.6% at A$3.67. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0053 GMT - Woodside Energy's new business review is likely to focus on its Australian operations, UBS says. Woodside is on the hunt for efficiency benefits that can improve how it deploys capital. Analyst Tom Allen notes Woodside's International division currently accounts for one-third of annual production. The remainder comes from Australia. "However, by the early 2030s this ratio flips, requiring Woodside's focus and capability to grow in the International division," UBS says. So, most efficiency measures are likely to come from its Australian operations. "Despite not yet factoring in savings, we highlight potential for modest EPS upside from these measures from 2H26," UBS says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0049 GMT - Woolworths's downgrade to earnings guidance for its Australian food business surprises RBC Capital Markets. That's because of the "very strong top line trends which have continued through the 2H,"analyst Michael Toner. Woolworths said it still expects Australian food Ebit to increase by mid to high single digit range percent in FY 2026, but no longer at the upper end of the range. It cited higher costs tied to fuel prices in 4Q, and investments to help customers struggling with cost-of-living pressures. Woolworths is down 6.0% at A$35.05. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0659 GMT - Cochlear's bull at Jefferies doesn't think the volume pressures experienced by the hearing-implant maker are structural. Maintaining a buy rating on the stock, analyst David Stanton tells clients in a note that rising U.S. Medicare costs and authorization procedures from commercial insurers are delaying volume demand for the Australia-listed company. Most Americans with private insurers are on high-deductable plans, while the growing view among patients and insurers is that cochlear implant procedures are semielective, he adds. However, he says the market remains underpenetrated and Cochlear's volume opportunity is large. Soft demand might be extended but it is merely cyclical, he believes. Jefferies has a A$137.00 target price on the stock, which closed 3.2% lower at A$90.00. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires