Forum Topics News Summary DJ Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk 01 May 2026 15:00:55
Jimmy
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0202 GMT - South32's higher-than-anticipated capital expenditure estimate for its Hermosa project is the "key drag" from the miner's project update, according to Citi analyst Ephrem Ravi. Otherwise, "revised timelines, unit costs and sustaining capex are largely in line to conservative assumptions we had baked in our model," he says. Ravi reckons there remains potential for higher production at Hermosa following upgrades to reserves and resources. As a result, the bank keeps its net present value estimate for Hermosa largely unchanged. It also leaves its price target unchanged at A$5.40/share and reiterates a buy rating. "We remain buyers of the stock as aluminum tailwinds in the near-term driving earnings, while long term growth prospects are underpinned by the attractive valuations," says Ravi. Shares are up 2.5% at A$4.13. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0112 GMT - ResMed's 3Q result is greeted warmly by its bull at RBC Capital Markets. Analyst Craig Wong-Pan tells clients in a note that the breath-tech provider delivered a slight beat to his and consensus forecasts across a majority of metrics. He likes that gross margin continued to improve, beating consensus forecasts by 30 basis points. Less positively, he acknowledges that 5.9% Americas revenue growth from devices fell short of an average analyst forecast of 9.1%. The announcement that CFO Brett Sandercock is retiring may also hit sentiment, he adds. RBC has a last-published outperform rating and US$314.00 target price on ResMed's U.S.-listed stock, which closed at US$213.81. ResMed's Australia-listed stock is down 2.6% at A$29.00. ([email protected])

0055 GMT - The share-price drop that followed Woolworths' latest trading update generates some cautious optimism on the stock at Morgans. Analyst Alexander Lu raises his recommendation on the Australian supermarket operator to accumulate from hold, telling clients in a note that management's decision to absorb higher fuel costs and invest in product pricing is the correct one from a long-term perspective. He acknowledges this will weigh on margins in the near term, but stresses the importance of brand perception among consumers. "Woolworths' dominant market position and relatively defensive characteristics should support steady and resilient earnings growth," Lu adds. Morgans keeps a A$37.30 target price on the stock, which is up 0.4% at A$34.53. ([email protected])

0049 GMT - Ord Minnett trims its earnings outlook for dairy producer Bega, citing near-term headwinds that include higher farmgate milk prices. Milk processors are also likely to face rising energy, fuel, and transportation costs, alongside significant increases in packaging costs and potential resin shortages. These pressures are likely to weigh on margins, analyst James Casey says. "With cost pressures building across the food and dairy supply chain, companies will likely need to pass these through to consumers to protect margins," Ord Minnett says. It downgrades FY 2026-FY 2028 earnings forecasts by 2%-4%. Ord Minnett retains a hold call on Bega, which is down 0.7% at A$5.46. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0044 GMT - Pallets supplier Brambles will be able to pass on the impact of higher fuel costs to its customers, just not right away, Jefferies analysts say. The CHEP brand operator's contracts allow it to recover costs through pricing, but the analysts tell clients in a note that they expect some lag in timing. They think that Brambles will experience fewer deliveries from North American recyclers in a high fuel-cost environment because the fees it pays them are fixed. This would mean Brambles needs to organize more of its own pallet collections, they add. Jefferies trims its target price 1.8% to A$21.02 and keeps a hold rating on the stock, which is up 0.4% at A$22.72. ([email protected])

0025 GMT - ANZ's first-half result looks largely in line with expectations at Citi despite the Australian bank's revenue miss. Analyst Thomas Strong tells clients in a note that there are a lot of moving parts to the result, with cash profit about 2.5% ahead of consensus forecast, thanks to lower-than-expected bad and doubtful debts. Costs are also better than expected, but he says this is offset by weaker net interest income. On the whole, Strong reckons the broader investment thesis is unchanged. He likes the lender's strong balance sheet and on-track strategy. Citi has a last-published buy rating and A$36.65 target price on the stock, which is down 0.3% at A$36.55. ([email protected])

2347 GMT - There were several positives in Coles's 3Q update, but RBC Capital Markets expects the market to downgrade EPS forecasts regardless. Coles signaled that sales trends in its supermarkets have extended into 4Q. For analyst Michael Toner, this is a positive. RBC anticipates Woolworths' market share outperformance versus Coles will narrow in the near term. RBC was also upbeat about the absence of an explicit downgrade to Coles's earnings outlook relative to consensus. "Cost commentary is qualitative in nature, and we anticipate consensus cuts to FY 2026 EBIT forecasts for Coles today based primarily on Woolworths's update yesterday and broader sector trends, though this was anticipated regardless of today's print," RBC says. It had a neutral call on Coles ahead of the 3Q update. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2346 GMT - A US$1.1 billion cost overrun and one-year delay at South32's Hermosa project lead bull Macquarie to slash its target price on the stock by 22%, to A$4.50/share. Adjustments for capital expenditure, a new mine schedule and higher operating costs drive a A$5.1 billion--or 55%--reduction in the net present value Macquarie attributes to the project. "With the increase in capex effectively taking us back to the project's sanction case for 5% less production and 9% higher real costs, productivity-driven cost creep has been the key disappointment," says Macquarie. "The delay also erodes value, pushing first zinc to 2028." Macquarie keeps an outperform rating on the stock, which fell by 5.4% Thursday to A$4.03. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2329 GMT -- Poultry producer Inghams loses a bull in Bell Potter as headwinds strengthen. Analyst Jonathan Snape points to commentary from other Australian companies, which suggests foodservice and out-of-home channels weakened in March-April due to a more skittish consumer. This coincides with intensifying cost pressures in plastics, distribution and feed. Bell Potter says large retailers are freezing prices on products such as chicken. "The risk is rising that these pressures are pushing the recovery in the Inghams base business to the right," Bell Potter says. "While valuation is not particularly stretched, periods of disruption in foodservice/wholesale markets have traditionally been difficult to manage." It downgrades Inghams to hold, from buy, and cuts its price target 27% to A$2.00/share. Inghams ended Thursday at A$1.885. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2327 GMT - Liontown's lithium recovery should increase moving forward as underground ore makes up a higher proportion of its feed mix, Citi analyst Jack Whelan says. Reported 3Q recovery--averaging roughly 61%--missed consensus by 9%. That was because of a higher proportion of open pit stockpile material through the plant, Whelan says. Liontown "noted average recoveries of [circa] 70% have been achieved across the first three weeks of April," he says. Liontown is, however, yet to achieve its target grade of 5.2%, with 3Q grade averaging 5.1%, Whelan adds. Citi has a "neutral" rating and A$1.65 target on Liontown. Shares ended Thursday at A$2.35. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

2321 GMT -- Supermarket owner Woolworths is particularly constrained in its ability to pass on higher fuel costs and indirect inflation to customers, Macquarie says. That's because of its relative pricing perception. It also has to repair some trust issues with customers, Macquarie says. So, it assumes the headwinds that Woolworths is experiencing early in 4Q of FY 2026 linger into the following fiscal year. Macquarie cuts its EPS forecast for FY 2026 and FY 2027 by 2.4% and 5.7%, respectively. "The lift in inflation has occurred at unfortunate timing as Woolworths seeks to rebuild its value proposition/pricing trust with customers," Macquarie says. "However, top-line strength still points to relative resilience in an uncertain market." It retains a neutral on Woolworths. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

Wildcat Resources should be on the radar of investors as lithium tailwinds strengthen, says Euroz Hartleys. Lithium's appeal has grown as the Middle East conflict drives demand for electric vehicles and batteries. Spodumene prices have rebounded to US$2,450/ton in China, from below US$1,000/ton in November. Analyst Michael Scantlebury points out that PLS Group is at an all-time high among lithium producers, while Liontown Resources now has a market value of A$7.5 billion. "In our view, the more compelling opportunity sits in high-quality developers such as Wildcat," Euroz Hartleys says. At spot spodumene prices, Wildcat's net present value is A$1.49/share, or A$2.9 billion. Euroz Hartleys almost doubles its price target for Wildcat to A$1.21/share. Wildcat ended Thursday at A$0.585. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2315 GMT -- While confidence is building in Boss Energy's new approach to its Honeymoon uranium mine, more technical clarity is needed to drive a re-rating in its shares, Citi analyst Tom Wallington says. Boss "talked up its sophisticated data-driven approach to inform the revised development" alongside its 3Q production result, says Wallington. But he says Citi remains cautious. "We will need to see more evidence to de-risk the revised concept," he says. Citi has a neutral rating and A$1.60 target on Boss. Shares ended Thursday at A$1.39. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0734 GMT - Centurion Corp. stands to benefit from its acquisition of two assets in Western Australia, CGS International analysts say in a research report. Its acquisition of worker-accommodation assets in Karratha and in South Hedland mark a strategic pivot into a higher-yielding market, the analysts say. With around 90% financial occupancy supported by mostly corporate leases and net-property-income margins of roughly 70%, the assets are expected to generate low double-digit yields, the analysts estimate. Beyond earnings accretion, these acquisitions establish a strategic beachhead in Western Australia. The brokerage raises the stock's target price to S$1.89 from S$1.84 with an unchanged add rating. Shares are unchanged at S$1.63. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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