0222 GMT - There's a good chance the deal between Australia's Regis Resources and Vault Minerals will close as proposed, according to MA Financial analyst Paul Hissey. He reckons the structure of Vault's business--with one large and two much smaller operations--would limit competing interest from a global miner. Genesis Minerals "remains the obvious third party with clear strategic benefits in the Leonora region," Hissey says. "However, it feels to us like this ship has sailed," with Genesis well advanced with its own expansion plans. To be sure, the implied offer price for Vault of A$4.98 a share falls short of MA's target of A$7.70. That suggests there "would be additional value available should someone else arrive with a higher bid," Hissey says. Regis's shares are down 5.0% at A$6.81. Vault is up 4.4% at A$4.70. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0159 GMT - The agreed takeover of Vault Minerals by Regis Resources comes as a surprise to Macquarie. Benefits from the deal are "tied to improved scale, tax synergies, balance-sheet strength and diversification across a larger asset base," the bank says. No asset-level benefits are specified, it says. "While the transaction implies an 11% premium for VAU, the door may not be closed for further action where stronger asset-level synergies may be available for VAU," says Macquarie. The bank has an outperform rating on Regis, with a A$9.50 target. Regis shares are down 5.2% at A$6.80. Vault shares are up 3.8% at A$4.67. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)

0050 GMT - IDP Education keeps its bull at UBS but the investment bank's analysts drop it from their list of top picks due to uncertainty over policy, the geopolitical backdrop and global inflation. Maintaining a buy rating on the student placement provider, the analysts flag weak student visa data in Australia, Canada and the U.K. They tell clients in a note that the operating environment for IDP has become materially worse in recent months, calling out the Middle East conflict and rising cost of living in key markets. The analyst say the stock's steep recent fall leaves it with an undemanding valuation, but acknowledge that some investors will remain cautious. UBS cuts its target price 36% to A$5.15. Shares are down 1.6% at A$3.07. ([email protected])

0044 GMT - Navigator Global's bulls at UBS say the Australian alternative-asset manager's increased scale and diversification comes at the cost of added complexity. Maintaining a buy rating on the stock, the investment bank's analysts tell clients in a note that there is limited detail about how Navigator and new strategic partner Stable Asset Management might collaborate on inorganic opportunities. They also flag earnings opacity around performance fee structures, adding that Navigator also has limited engagement with its 17 new portfolio companies. However, value appeal remains strong given Navigator's earnings growth profile. UBS lifts its target price 5.6% to A$3.80. Shares are up 6.4% at $2.63. ([email protected])

0036 GMT - Westpac's tightening of its technology cost guidance and its improving productivity are the key positives in its 1H result for Citi analyst Thomas Strong. Noting that credit-quality and capital metrics were disclosed ahead of the result, Strong draws clients' attention to Westpac's outlook for spending on its so-called Unite technology project. It now expects to spend A$850 million-A$900 million, compared with its previous guidance of A$850 million-A$950 million. He writes in a note that an additional A$50 million in anticipated productivity benefits is another positive. Citi has a last-published neutral rating and A$39.00 target price on the stock, which is down 0.3% at A$39.39. ([email protected])

0019 GMT - National Australia Bank keeps its bull at UBS despite management's caution over the outlook for credit quality and the broader Australian economy. Looking past the tone of management commentary, analyst John Storey maintains a buy rating on valuation. "NAB's share price is down 20% peak to trough in CY26, which we view as overly harsh and not reflective of underlying and expected business momentum," he writes in a note. Storey acknowledges investor concern that NAB's large exposure to business banking could expose it to economic headwinds but thinks that NAB's underlying earnings trajectory, margin outlook and franchise momentum are stronger than the share price suggests. UBS trims its target price 4.0% to A$48.50. Shares are up 0.4% at A$39.34. ([email protected])

0001 GMT - Westpac's seasonally better cost performance offsets the Australian lender's small miss relative to first-half revenue expectations, Jefferies analysts write in a note. They point to lower costs as the reason why the bank's first-half cash earnings beat their forecast by about 1%. However, they think that seasonal factors are behind the outperformance on costs and see this unwinding over the remainder of the 2026 fiscal year. Westpac's first-half revenue of A$11.28 billion was slightly ahead of Jefferies' A$11.21 billion forecast, but lagged consensus for A$11.38 billion. Jefferies has a last-published hold rating and A$34.92 target price on the stock, which is at A$38.50 ahead of the open. ([email protected])

2346 GMT - Viva Energy's update in the aftermath of the Geelong refinery fire suggests that restarting the Residue Catalytic Cracking Unit will take around one month longer than originally signaled, Jefferies says. Viva Energy says the RCCU and associated units are likely to be operational again in June. Production will rise to more than 90% of capacity once the RCCU is back online. Analyst Michael Simotas says the implied delay largely affects gasoline volumes, which are generating relatively low margins currently. "Middle distillate crack spreads remain very high, and will be a more important driver of earnings and cash flow than volume," Jefferies says. It retains a hold call and A$2.25/share price target on Viva Energy, which ended Monday at A$2.42. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2340 GMT - Bell Potter retains a bullish call on the drinks-to-hotels group Endeavour, despite slowing sales, as the Middle East conflict rattles consumer confidence. Endeavour, which owns the Dan Murphy's and BWS brands, said retail sales in the second half of the 2026 fiscal year so far were 0.7% higher than a year earlier. But that represented a slowdown on the 2.9% growth achieved in 3Q. "Although the outlook for consumer spending has weakened due to the Middle East conflict and a worsening rate environment, we believe market expectations are low for the company's strategic refresh, leaving greater room for upside potential," analyst Baxter Kirk says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2333 GMT - A2 Milk's product recall in the U.S. could reverberate elsewhere. The company is recalling three batches of infant milk formula products sold in the U.S. due to the presence of cereulide. Analyst Jonathan Snape suggests a2 Milk could need to step up brand investment in China to reassure customers there about product safety. "The timing of the recall is also less than ideal as a2 Milk is already short product on ground in China and hence already needed to potentially invest to recapture customers that had switched to alternative suppliers," Bell Potter says. It retains a hold call on a2 Milk and cuts its price target by 19% to A$6.75/share. On the ASX, a2 Milk's shares ended Monday at A$6.55. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2216 GMT - Citi sees increased risk that Lottery Corp. misses 2H consensus estimates. That's because the company needs 25% on-year growth in lottery turnover in May and June to hit market forecasts. "This appears very difficult given the cycling of large jackpots in the prior corresponding period and a recent deceleration in the Powerball jackpot sequence," analyst Adrian Lemme says. Still, it thinks negative sentiment about recent trading could be offset by Lottery Corp.'s defensive appeal right now. Also, the company could deliver positive updates on its digital operations and cost savings at an investor day scheduled for the middle of this year. "We therefore retain our 'neutral' rating and A$5.10 target price," Citi says. Lottery Corp. ended Monday at A$5.46. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires