06-May-2026: BTR's MD Alex Rovira continues to devote time to spruiking the company and it's "bright" future to potential investors, this week at the RIU Sydney Resources Round-up at the Hyatt Regency, Darling Harbour, Sydney, which claims to now be the largest and busiest investment resources conference on Australia’s east coast.

See here: RIU Sydney Conference Presentation.pdf [today, 6th May 2026]

Sample Slides:

They've done their DFS, they've made the FID, their finance is all sorted, they've contracted GNG to build the plant, the process is underway with onsite construction beginning in the current quarter and first gold due to be poured in the first half of next year (2027), so it's all happening, and they're going to be a new Australian gold producer in around 12 months' time. Correction: They're already producing gold through a toll treating agreement with Genesis Minerals (GMD) who are processing parcels of BTR's ore at their (GMD's) Laverton mill, however in a year BTR will be operating their own mill.

So what's not to like? Well, two things, firstly punters might be expecting a lack of positive newsflow until they pour their first gold next year, and secondly, and I think more importantly, there's this:

Based on the gold they have already found there around this particular site, they have projected total LOM (life of mine) production of 457 thousand ounces of gold (koz Au) at an average projected production rate of around 75 koz per year. So, small scale production compared to a lot of other gold producers and gold project developers out there. They also expect their AISC (costs) to be around A$3,000/ounce, which is high.

While the gold price stays over A$6,000/ounce, as it has been (currently A$6,489/oz as I type this), they can rightfully claim that this will be a "high-margin, short-payback" operation, as they have at the top of that slide above, but it is true that there are other projects out there with superior economics, so with even higher margins than BTR (lower costs), mostly due to higher grades of gold.

Disclosure: I hold BTR (and GNG who are building their Laverton plant), and I hold them because of a few things, including:

1. This Laverton gold project is only one of two main projects that Brightstar are actively progressing right now, with the other being their Sandstone project, and Sandstone is shaping up to be bigger and better than Laverton. This is important because they are going to keep drilling and keep announcing results, most of those being related to Sandstone, which is at an earlier stage than Laverton. So I do expect continued positive newsflow relating to those drill results at a time in which the gold price may well be rising again (as it is today - see here).
2. BTR have now hit the low point on the Lassonde Curve (see below) that comes just before plant/mine construction begins, and the normal trend would be for their SP to rise now that they are actually building a mill.
3. Sandstone, their next gold project, is emerging as a high-grade development asset, with recent drilling yielding results like 7m at 17.7g/t gold, while the Laverton/Menzies hubs currently contain lower-grade ore, such as 2.51g/t Au they achieved from ore being toll treated at Genesis' (GMD's) Laverton mill last year. Sandstone is intended for long-term development with higher-grade potential, whereas current Laverton operations focus on near-term cash flow. (Sources: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/stockhead/content/brightstar-lands-higher-gold-grade-and-recovery-in-first-parcel/news-story/289ee387b1cb53f616b24809ddad37b0 + https://www.bullsnbears.com.au/post/brightstar-resources-jags-higher-gold-grade-with-more-ounces-from-wa-mill + https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/stockhead/content/brightstar-resources-serves-golden-volley-as-sandstone-drilling-delivers-more-highgrade-hits/news-story/e5b043c391fe903babd969658aff021b).
4. Sandstone should also be lower cost than Laverton due to both scale and the shallow depth of the gold-bearing ore. The total combined Sandstone and Montague project comprises over 1Moz, primarily near surface.
5. BTR has smarter money than mine on their register, including Lion Selection Group (LSX) who have BTR at the top of their list of current holdings in their May 2026 Investor Update (released to the market this morning) - see immediately below - note that LSX highlight there that Sandstone is going to be a MAJOR growth project for BTR.

Source: LSX May 2026 Investor Update [06-May-2026]

BTR explain the relevance of Sandstone's scale on slide 5 of their May 2026 Presentation (presented at the RIU Conference in Sydney today, link at the top of this post):

So that's why I hold BTR. The market is overlooking or bypassing them for now - they closed at 38 cps (cents per share) today, and they were 60 cps 12 months ago, so their share price has been going in the wrong direction, but I think that will change once the market realises what they're likely to be worth in 5 years from now, if they don't get taken out at a decent premium by a larger goldie between now and then. Always a possibility. Even the larger ones can be swallowed, as Regis (RRL) is currently trying to do to Vault (VAU) - it's an agreed "Merger" but VAU shareholders are going to get RRL shares; it's an all-scrip deal. Judging by today's RRL & VAU SP moves, the market isn't overly enthusiastic about that one. M&A is even more prevalent at the smaller end, such as Genesis (GMD) acquiring Magnetic (MAU) recently.

I hold BTR in my SPF (speculative companies portfolio).

About the Lassonde Curve:

Source: https://www.mpcmarkets.com.au/understanding-the-mining-investment-life-cycle-the-lassonde-curve/

This one probably explain it better:

Source (image above and everything below): https://microcap.com/de-risking-the-mine-how-the-lassonde-curve-guides-investment-decisions-in-junior-mining/

The Lassonde Curve illustrates the different stages of a mining project’s development and the corresponding changes in its theoretical value over time. While each project is unique, the curve highlights common phases and their associated risks and rewards:

1. Concept/Exploration Stage (High Risk, High Potential Reward):

• Characteristics: This initial phase involves generating exploration targets, acquiring land, and conducting early-stage exploration activities like geological mapping, geochemical sampling, and geophysical surveys.
• Value Drivers: Success hinges on identifying promising geological indicators and securing prospective land positions. Early discoveries, even minor ones, can generate significant excitement and share price appreciation.
• Risk: This is the riskiest stage. Most exploration projects do not result in an economic discovery. Companies are often pre-revenue and rely heavily on speculative capital.
• Investor Profile: Investors in this phase are typically risk-tolerant individuals or specialized funds with expertise in geology and exploration.

2. Discovery Stage (Highest Risk, Highest Potential Reward):

• Characteristics: Drilling commences, aimed at confirming the presence of a significant mineral deposit.
• Value Drivers: Positive drill results that indicate a potentially economic deposit can lead to a dramatic increase in the company’s valuation. This is often where the most substantial gains for investors are realized.
• Risk: Drilling is expensive and uncertain. Negative results can quickly decimate a company’s share price.
• Investor Profile: Similar to the exploration stage but may attract more investors due to tangible results.

3. Feasibility Stage (De-risking Phase):

• Characteristics: The company conducts detailed studies to determine the economic viability of the deposit. This includes:
• Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA): An initial, high-level study of the project’s potential economic viability.
• Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS): A more detailed study with greater accuracy in cost estimations and project design.
• Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS): A comprehensive study that provides the highest level of confidence in the project’s economic viability, often required for securing project financing.
• Value Drivers: Positive feasibility studies reduce the project’s risk and increase investor confidence, potentially leading to a higher valuation. Permitting and environmental approvals are initiated during this stage.
• Risk: Studies may reveal that the project is not economically viable, or permitting may be problematic, leading to significant share price declines.
• Investor Profile: Attracts a broader range of investors as the project becomes more defined and risks are better understood.

4. Development/Construction Stage (Capital Intensive Phase):

• Characteristics: The company secures financing and begins construction of the mine and related infrastructure.
• Value Drivers: Progress on construction, on-time and on-budget performance, can positively impact the share price.
• Risk: This phase is capital-intensive, and cost overruns or construction delays are common. Financing can be challenging to secure.
• Investor Profile: May attract larger, more risk-averse investors as the project moves closer to production.

5. Production Stage (Cash Flow Generation):

• Characteristics: The mine begins operating, producing and selling the targeted mineral.
• Value Drivers: Revenue generation, profitability, and operating cash flow become the primary drivers of value.
• Risk: Operational challenges, fluctuating commodity prices, and mine life limitations can impact profitability.
• Investor Profile: Attracts investors seeking stable cash flows and dividends. The company is no longer considered a “junior” and is now a producer.

6. Closure and Reclamation:

• Characteristics: The mine eventually reaches the end of its productive life. The company is responsible for closing the mine and restoring the site to an acceptable environmental standard.

The Lassonde Curve’s Importance for Junior (Penny Stock) Mining Investors:

The Lassonde Curve is particularly relevant for investors in junior exploration and development companies because it:

• Provides a Framework for Assessing Risk and Reward: The curve helps investors understand that the risk/reward profile changes as a project progresses. The highest potential returns (and highest risks) are typically found in the early stages.
• Highlights Key Value Inflection Points: The curve identifies critical milestones, such as discovery, feasibility studies, and permitting, that can significantly impact a company’s valuation.
• Guides Investment Decisions: Investors can use the curve to align their investment strategies with the stage of development of a particular project. For example, investors seeking high-growth potential might focus on companies in the exploration or discovery phase, while those seeking lower risk might prefer companies closer to production.
• Emphasizes the Importance of De-risking: The curve visually demonstrates how value is created by successfully advancing a project through each stage and progressively reducing risk.

Conclusion

The Lassonde Curve is more than just a theoretical model; it’s a practical tool for understanding the life cycle of mining projects and making informed investment decisions in the junior mining sector. By understanding where a company sits on the curve and recognizing the risks and rewards associated with each stage, investors can better navigate the inherent volatility of microcap exploration stocks. While the allure of early-stage discoveries is undeniable, the Lassonde Curve reminds us that successful mining investments require a long-term perspective, a focus on de-risking, and a thorough understanding of the many challenges that lie on the path from exploration to production. It also helps investors realize that during the early stages of exploration and development, a company is burning through cash and needs investor support to advance.

Engineering Phase: The Valley of Death

• If a company does make a promising discovery, it enters the engineering phase, where studies and planning for mine development take place.
• This phase can be quite “boring” for investors, as there’s less news flow and the focus shifts to technical details and financing.
• The stock price often stagnates or declines during this period, as investors become impatient and move on to other opportunities.
• However, this phase is crucial for separating the wheat from the chaff. Companies that can successfully navigate the engineering and permitting process and secure financing for mine construction are more likely to create long-term value.

Mining Phase: Revaluation and Production

• Once a mine is in production, the company begins generating revenue and cash flow. This is when the company and the stock are often revalued, as investors recognize the actual value of the asset.
• However, even during the production phase, challenges can arise, such as operational issues, commodity price fluctuations, and mine depletion.
• Microcap investors who can identify companies with promising projects and have the patience to hold through the “Valley of Death” can potentially reap significant rewards during the production phase.

Key Takeaways for Microcap Investors

• Be wary of hype: Don’t get caught up in the excitement of early exploration results. Do your own research and focus on the fundamentals of the project.
• Understand the cycle: Recognize that junior mining stocks go through distinct phases, each with its own risks and opportunities.
• Be patient: Don’t expect overnight riches. Successful mining projects take time to develop, and the biggest rewards often come in the later stages.
• Manage risk: Diversify your portfolio and be prepared for setbacks. Not every promising exploration project will turn into a producing mine.

By understanding the lifecycle of a junior miner and the psychological factors that influence investor behavior, microcap investors can make more informed decisions and increase their chances of success.

Source: https://microcap.com/de-risking-the-mine-how-the-lassonde-curve-guides-investment-decisions-in-junior-mining/