Scroll down - latest updates are at the end of this.

09-Feb-2024: I reckon they're close to fair value at current levels (closed today at $1.56 today, and at $1.61 yesterday). People say there is a management premium built in already - as there should be - because it's been earned. However, give this company about three years and they should be a top 7 Australian gold producer in terms of ounces produced p.a. (at over 300 koz per annum) and I have no doubt that unless things really turned pear-shaped for Raleigh, GMD will STILL be one of the top 5 Aussie gold producers in terms of market capitalisation. And my price target at that point would be a minimum of $2.35/share, so that's what I'm going with today, with a three year time frame, so by February 2027.

They could easily overshoot that target, but that's a reasonable target I think.

The following three slides are all taken from the recent joint presentation by Red 5 (RED) and Silver Lake Resources (SLR) [Presentation - Red 5 and Silver Lake Resources to Merge 05-Feb-2024] highlighting the benefits of merging the two companies together. I am using slides 7, 10 & 15 from that Presso because they show where all of the main ASX-listed (and Aussie HQ'd) gold producers sit in relation to each other on various metrics.

I have highlighted Genesis Minerals (GMD) in green. In the first slide that shows Gold Production for FY2024), I have shown where they expect to be within the next 3 years (at the left end of that green line) - at over 300 koz Au p.a. (300,000 ounces of gold per annum) [Source: Corporate-Presentation---Ready-set-grow---Assets-and-people-in-place-for-+300koz-p-a-27Nov2023.PDF]

Since they put that presentation together in November, Genesis have bought more gold: GMD-to-acquire-the-Bruno-Lewis-and-Raeside-gold-projects-14-Dec-2023.PDF plus Kin-Completes-Sale-of-WA-Gold-Deposits-for-Cash-and-Shares-09-Feb-2024.PDF

And here is slide 15 (below) from GMD's November 2023 Corporate Presentation that I talked about above.

So what Raleigh Finlayson did with Saracen Minerals was he acquired a number of quality gold projects, got them all or at least most of them into production, which dragged Saracen up to #4 in terms of Aussie Gold producers, with only Newcrest (now owned by US-based Newmont), Northern Star (NST) and Evolution Mining (EVN) producing more gold per year than Saracen did (in terms of Aussie-based and ASX-listed gold producers), and then Raleigh and NST's Bill Beament orchestrated a merger of the two companies which was achieved via NST acquiring Saracen.

So Saracen is now part of NST, and with Newcrest having been taken out by NYSE-listed Newmont Corp last year, NST is now Australia's largest ASX-listed and Australian-based gold producer.

Not long after the merger, Raleigh left NST on agreeable terms, and set up Genesis Minerals with plenty of financial backing - he is highly respected and has an excellent track record of value creation so he has plenty of people, particularly insto's and HNWI's, with money who are happy to back his latest venture. Then Bill Beament left NST himself and went to run Venturex, now known as Develop Global (which I also hold shares in).

So, back to Genesis. Can Raleigh do it again? Well, so far, so good.

Only two Aussie goldies (NST & EVN) have a greater Mineral Resource than Genesis' 15 Moz (15 million ounces); That's a LOT of gold. Genesis are only currently producing from one mill (Gwalia at Leonora) which is not being fully utilised (running well below capacity), however they have a second, larger mill at Laverton that they are going to fire up soon (the gold mill/plant formerly known as Dacian Gold's Mt Morgans Mill) and they have a lot of gold in various projects that is still in the ground or in ore stockpiles awaiting processing. And they have plans to fill both mills to capacity (see their presentation - link above - between the last two slides).

In terms of Gold Ore Reserves, the GMD Presso (first slide up from here, put together in November) suggests that they are in 5th position behind NST, EVN, PRU (Perseus Mining) and RSG (Resolute Mining), but the more recent RED/SLR slide suggests that GMD are one spot higher than that with only NST, EVN and WAF (West African Resources) ahead of them with greater Reserves, because the latest Reserve numbers from PRU and RSG are lower, probably due to either depletion through mining, or asset sales, or a combination of both.

GMD's table doesn't have WAF in it for some reason. Possibly because their latest numbers weren't available at the time? WAF first produced gold at Sanbrado, in Burkina Faso (West Africa) in March 2020, so they've been producing for a few years now, so it's not as though they've just started producing.

That's something worth pointing out, I tend to avoid West African gold miners, even when they are Australian managed, Australian headquartered, and ASX-listed, because I think the risks associated with mining in West Africa do not justify the potential upside - for me. Those West African miners include WAF, PRU and RSG - so if you take those three out of it, there's just NST and EVN ahead of GMD in terms of Reserves and Resources, and if the RED/SLR merger goes through then RED might move up to challenge GMD for third best gold ore Reserves.

I already hold NST, and I've recently sold out of EVN due to their increased reliance on copper production out of both Ernest Henry and Northparkes which they use to make their gold AISC look reasonable. Without those copper byproduct credits they are NOT low cost gold producers, which is what they market themselves as, and I don't like that, and I think they're due for a big downward re-rate, so I'm out of EVN.

So Genesis (GMD) is the next logical goldie for me to own, and I do.

If you look at the fourth chart on the second last slide above, the one titled, "EV / Resource (A$/oz Au Eq)", you'll see Genesis is 4th from the bottom, with their current share price and market cap valuing their Gold Resource at just A$112/ounce, while the current spot price is over A$3,100/ounce. And Genesis have Zero Hedging; yep, they're completely unhedged and totally exposed to a rising spot price.

So, what does that mean? I would suggest that means that they are actually still quite cheap - there are only three goldies that are even lower than $112/oz, and one of those is Westgold (WGX) who look cheap across most metrics actually - and I am looking to get some exposure to Westgold in my SMSF shortly as it happens - plus there's also two of those three West African goldies (WAF and RSG) who trade with a risk-discount in their share price which always makes them look cheaper than many of their peers - but they are also riskier than most of their peers because of where their mines are located.

In summary, while GMD can look expensive based on their current production, they are about to ramp up production significantly, like more than double it, and they do NOT look expensive based on the gold that they own that is still in the ground.

And it's not low grade stuff either - have a look at this:

Tower Hill is just one of GMD's development projects and it's got higher grades than the world-class Tropicana open pit gold mine (30% owned by Regis, 70% owned and operated by AngloGold Ashanti) - and Tropicana is very profitable. Note - those mines in that chart are single open pit deposits only, so no underground mines or projects. And open pit gold is a lot easier and cheaper to truck out than gold is from underground mines.

So where is Tower Hill? Somewhere remote? A long way from Infrastructure? Yeah, Nah! It's just 2 km north of Gwalia:

Here's another look at a peer comparison based on gold reserves and resources from a September 2023 North American Investor Presentation by GMD:

In that slide the two ASX100 goldies (NST & EVN) have been removed and so have all of the West African and other goldies that do not have gold mines here in Australia - so they (GMD) are saying their "peer group" is small to mid-tier ASX-listed gold producers who have mines here in Australia.

Have a look at who is backing Genesis:

Below is that "Ownership Geographic" blown up so it's easier to read:

Insto ownership accounts for 70% of their shares on issue, split as follows: 52% owned by Australian Institutions, 10% North American insto's, 7% UK insto's, and 1% owned by European insto's (ex-UK). 29% Free Float (Retail) but it looks like the 2.4% owned by the Genesis Board and Management may be included in that 29%, so that leaves 26.6%. Not too bad, but it underlines how much institutional backing this company has because of what Raleigh Finlayson (GMD's founder and MD) managed to achieve with Saracen Minerals previously.

And it looks like he's on his way to doing something similar with Genesis.

Slides sourced from: INTRODUCING GENESIS - A growing Australian gold house - CORPORATE PRESENTATION - NORTH AMERICA - September 2023 and Corporate-Presentation---Ready-set-grow---Assets-and-people-in-place-for-+300koz-p-a-27Nov2023.PDF

See also: GMD-Quarterly-Activities-Report---December-2023.PDF

So, I see GMD as a no-brainer in terms of me choosing to have exposure to them at this point. There's plenty of upside from here.

And for those people with a higher risk tolerance, have a gander at the three projects within that 50km radius of GMD's Gwalia mill at Leonora (within the smallest circle) there that are named in Brown instead of Blue - meaning they are NOT already owned by Genesis - there's KIN's Cardinia project, Saturn Metals (STN's) Apollo Hill project, and Red 5's (RED's) KOTH (King of the Hills) mine and mill.

KOTH is already in play with the proposed SLR/RED merger, so I hope Raleigh doesn't come over the top with an even higher offer for RED than what SLR have proposed with their reverse takeover (RED acquiring SLR). Raleigh just doesn't need KOTH that badly - he wants it, but he doesn't need it, and if he clearly overpays for that asset, it could shake the market's confidence in both him and his company. It might not, but it might. But he doesn't need to do it - it would cost over $1 billion and it's really not a good acquisition at the price in my view.

And since that map was put together in September, GMD have bought part of KIN's Cardinia project, the Bruno-Lewis gold project and the Raeside high-grade gold project - see here: GMD-to-acquire-the-Bruno-Lewis-and-Raeside-gold-projects-14-Dec-2023.PDF

Here's the updated map (below) that GMD included in that mid-December announcement:

Now there's just RED's KOTH and STN's Apollo Hill left inside that 50km radius circle - that isn't already owned by GMD. If I was a betting man, I might take a small bite of STN - whose shares are trading at around 16 to 17 cents/share and whose market cap is only $30 million. RED's market cap is $1.14 Billion. GMD's is $1.76 Billion.

Of course RED has a working gold mine and working gold mill and STN just have a gold project that they are trying to develop, so it's like comparing an apple to a truckload of oranges. But I'd have thought that taking over STN or just buying Apollo Hill from STN would make a lot more sense than trying to trump SLR once again to attempt to takeover RED.

Acquiring Apollo Hill would also mean that Genesis would own every decent gold deposit between Leonora and Laverton, as that last map (above) shows.

There would still be Focus Minerals's (FML's) Laverton mill just north of Laverton, but Focus is now a 63% owned subsidiary of Shanghai-listed Shandong Gold International Mining Corporation, and I doubt they would sell to an Australian company unless it was at a very high price, and I doubt Raleigh would be interested in any of FML's assets anyway. He already has plenty of mill capacity at Laverton.

And his focus is really on Leonora - as the maps clearly show. Anyway, time to catch some Zzzz's. That'll do Donkey. That'll do.

Bill and Raleigh when the NST-Saracen merger was announced in early October 2020.

Raleigh Finlayson in March 2020 in the Saracen office (before the merger).

Same again below.

Shortly after the merger with NST.

Raleigh last year. Now running Genesis.

At the Genesis Minerals Office.

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/station-life-to-building-a-gold-mine-to-buying-half-of-the-super-pit-in-kalgoorlie-raleigh-finlayson-md-of-genesis-minerals-podcast

Raleigh and sister Marnie Finlayson, who is an executive at Rio Tinto and is also on the NST Board.

Marnie and Raleigh Finlayson: Rio’s lithium star and her Genesis CEO brother (afr.com)

(24) Raleigh Finlayson | LinkedIn

Genesis Minerals Limited | Perth WA | Facebook

https://genesisminerals.com.au/

11-Aug-2024: Update: This one was marked as stale, and the company is no worse now than they were when I last updated this - in fact they're looking better - and remain disciplined in terms of M&A, with a lot of opportunities around them for smaller bolt-ons, which they have so far resisted, and I'm also happy that Ral did NOT get involved in the SLR/RED merger where SLR have effectively taken over control of Red 5 without paying a management premium by way of a reverse takeover (so officially RED acquired SLR but the SLR management team are now running RED) - because the way that was structured, GMD buying into RED (who owned KOTH, the mine and mill near Leonora that would fit nicely into Ral's empire at GMD) wouldn't have made any difference because he would have needed a blocking stake in SLR to have scuttled that deal, and there's no way GMD want to own any SLR shares with all of their assets (prior to the SLR/RED merger) a fair way north west of Leonora.

So no movement from Ral to try to slow down or stop that one going through, unlike SLR/RED's Luke Tonkin's behaviour when he made multiple attempts to either halt or delay the GMD acquisition of Gwalia and the other Leonora assets from St Barbara in the first half of last year. There's no love lost between Raleigh Finlayson and Luke Tonkin, but Ral remains the superior human being, with the better business, and better business sense.

So Genesis (GMD) continues to deliver to plan, and they are the big growth story in the Aussie Gold sector and should remain so as they bring more projects online and fill up their Leonora (Gwalia) and Laverton (Mt Morgans) mills. There is a management and growth premium in the SP now, but it is well deserved. However, I can understand why Ord Minnett (OM) recently moved GMD from "Accumulate" to "Hold" based on their share price appreciation rather than any change in the outlook for the company.

I'd like to see Ral buy MAU (Magnetic Resources) for GMD (Genesis), because it makes strategic sense for their Laverton mill, but there's no rush as MAU already has a significant market cap for a gold project developer, so they wouldn't be buying them super-cheap here. There is a good chance he won't do that however, because Ral has made it very clear that consolidation of gold assets around Leonora remains his number one priority, and right now his main focus is developing what GMD already own.

Other companies on his radar would include Kin Mining (KIN, soon to be known as Patronus, it's a Harry Potter reference apparently, to do with magical transformation or the conjuring up or personification of a strong positive emotion - and comes after the acquisition of PNX Metals (PNX) so PNX will probably become KIN's new ticker after they officially become known as Patronus), and to a lesser extent Mt Malcolm Mines (M2M) - which is worth almost pocket change to Ral at this point and may well go into VA and become available for even less, and Saturn Metals (STN) whose Apollo Hill project is likely going to become a large scale heap leach project rather than a traditional gold mill.

I think Saturn (STN) is the LEAST likely to be an M&A target for GMD because Apollo Hill would not provide feed for Gwalia (GMD's Leonora mill) and while it's within the 100 km radius of Leonora that Ral is targeting, it's down to the south east of that circle and further away from Gwalia/Leonora than the other projects are - so it makes far less strategic sense than all of his other options (MAU, KIN/PNX, M2M).

But, as I said, I don't think M&A is still a high priority for Ral at this point - I think he has plenty to keep him busy for now - the only reason he would do further acquisitions in the near term would be (a) because he sees a good strategic opportunity that he does not want falling into somebody else's hands, and/or (b) he sees a cheap opportunity that is likely to become significantly more expensive if he waits and buys it later. I think under either or both of those scenarios he has the firepower and the will to make a move, but I don't think he needs to now - he's got plenty of projects to develop and two good mills already - one at each end of that area that Genesis own most of (Leonora across to Laverton) - or most of the gold deposits in that area (rather than most of the land in the area) - but, plenty to be going on with for now.

For context, Ral would have liked to have bought RED to get KOTH (King Of The Hills), but that chance has passed now, and he can only get KOTH now by buying the "new" RED which post-SLR-merger is now worth $2.3 Billion. On 21-May-24 RED closed at 49 cents/share (cps), they are now 35.5 cps with a sh!tload more shares on issue post the merger with SLR, but on 20-Feb-23 (18 months ago) they closed at 13 cps with far less shares on issue.

At 13 to 16 cps earlier last year - maybe even up to 20 cps - RED, with all of their assets relatively close to Leonora, made plenty of sense, but Ral had his hands full with trying to first merge with SBM and spin out their non-Leonora assets into a newco (which was going to be called Phoenician Metals) and then instead Plan B (after Ral realised just how dire SBM's own situation had become which allowed him to re-jig the deal in a major way to Genesis' benefit and St Barbara's detriment) was to buy the Leonora assets from SBM and leave SBM with everything else - which is what eventuated after a number of delays caused by Luke Tonkin's SLR lobbing in inferior bids. Then in September last year Luke Tonkin's Silver Lake Resources (SLR) bought 11% of RED as a "strategic" (blocking) stake and then moved to acquire the remainder of RED this year via the reverse acquisition I mentioned a few paragraphs up.

It should be noted however that while both SLR and GMD had no net debt and a big pile of cash, so both seemed to be well run gold producers, GMD have a history of only buying assets at good prices where the acquisitions made strategic sense, and SLR have a history of overpaying for assets that they could have bought much cheaper earlier (i.e. RED) and where analysts struggle to understand any strategic sense or how any synergies might be realised. So Luke Tonkin is an empire builder with not a lot of strategy - or at least his strategy is hard to fathom, whereas Ral has done this all before with Saracen Minerals (which merged with Northern Star Resources - NST - a few years ago) and is able to communicate his strategy clearly and get plenty of backers onboard and more than happy to throw money at him and anything he turns his hand to because he has such a great history of producing superior TSRs for his shareholders.

That's why I hold GMD shares (and currently also MAU, KIN/PNX and some STN for further drilling result upside - I intend to sell out of STN on their next decent spike up) but not RED (and I wasn't an SLR shareholder either).

In terms of gold producers, my current exposures, in weighting order are NST, RMS, GMD, EMR and PRU. My project developer exposure is significantly smaller because of the elevated risk of owning pre-revenue companies - so MAU, KIN and STN are smaller positions held for shorter-term gains.

I have raised my GMD valuation a little today based on the higher gold price and my outlook for an even higher gold price being reasonably bullish, and GMD being so well positioned within Australia's larger gold producers - and with multiple growth projects.

16-Nov-2024: Update:

I'm raising my price target for GMD to $2.77 based on their latest presentation (their 2024 AGM Presso, released this past week) and their outstanding growth profile over the next few years. They are very well positioned.

The larger the bubble size above middle and above right, the higher the Reserve/Resource Grades are.

However, the higher up the chart the bubbles are, the more expensive they are, so you're paying more for each ounce of (underground) gold that they own. Ideally, you want to hold companies towards the bottom right corner of those two bubble graphs, being cheaper (lower down) and with a higher gold Reserve (middle graph) or higher gold Resource (right graph), meaning towards the right side of each graph above.

On that basis, both Westgold and Genesis look really good right now. I've topped up my Genesis (GMD) shares (in my SMSF and here) and added a Westgold (WGX) position to my SMSF during the past week, after selling all of my Perseus (PRU) and all of the IOO ETF out of my SMSF. I rate PRU's management a lot more highly than WGX's management, as I've mentioned here before, but I think WGX probably offers a better risk/reward trade-off from current levels than Perseus does, at least for the next little while.

But Genesis is the goods. They've got it all. Top quality management who think and act like owners rather than managers, always making strategically sensible decisions with a goal of long term value (TSR) creation. No debt. Cashed up. Backed by everybody who matters, because Raleigh is so highly respected in the industry. Huge access to growth capital whenever they want to pull the trigger. Focused on what matters, increasing grades, decreasing costs, so creating a gold company that will outperform in all sorts of different gold price scenarios. Heaps of growth. Realistic goals and timeframes. A history of underpromising and overdelivering, both with Genesis Minerals and formerly with Saracen Minerals (which merged with Northern Star in early 2021).

Some more deets:

Skin in the game:

That map a bit larger:

Value creation being reflected by the share price rising within a nice channel:

That was a snapshot during Thursday this past week (14-Nov-2024).

And still finding more gold: Updated - Strong drill results support growth [12-Nov-2024]

The Aussie gold price is going to be volatile I think over the next little while, so opportunities to pick up quality gold miners at lower prices might well present themselves.

We've got a falling US dollar due to our commodities-based econcomy struggling as China faces a few headwinds, and the surging US dollar isn't helping Aussie gold miners who mine all of their gold here in Australia and sell it all in A$'s, like GMD do.

However, Trump's rediculous appointment choices in the USA for his upcoming 4 year Administration starting on January 20th, some of which won't go through, like Matt Gaetz as Attorney General, and Kristi Noem (the one who tried to appeal to gun owners by admitting in her autobiography to shooting her pet dog and her goat) for Secretary of Homeland Security, and "Fox & Friends" (a show on the US' Fox News network) weekend presenter Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defence - a guy who admitted on-air at the start of Covid (in 2020) - much to the amusement of his co-hosts - that he hadn't washed his hands in 2 years because germs aren't real because he can't see them, and some Trump choices which just might get up, like RFK Jnr as head of Health and Human Services and Marco Rubio for Secretary of State... are just another factor that points to a significantly increased level of volatility in 2025 that we probably haven't seen before, and in that scenario, gold certainly has the potential to rebound strongly and go substantially higher.

Many of the people who voted for Trump, and the millions who would have voted Democrat but instead stayed home because they weren't overly enthused with Karmala Harris' message and positioning, are now saying, "What the f@ck have we done?!?"

Not good for the US - like Trumps proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and 10% to 20% tariffs on most other imports - which will be worn by US consumers and will only increase their inflation - and likely see the previously expected interest rate cuts being less likely now.

And not good for the world, with Marco Rubio - Trump's pick for Secretary of State - being anti-United-Nations and an isolationist, as is Trump himself. Trump and his appointees are not interested in the rest of the world, or how the US is viewed by the rest of the world; their motivations are to do what is in their own interests.

Trump has significantly changed the political landscape over the past 9 years. Trust in the government and the media and traditional institutions and organisations is at an all-time low in the US, and he can say whatever the hell he wants with zero consequences.

People actually don't expect him to be honest and to do exactly what he says - even those people who voted for him. They understand that everything is a negotiation with Trump. He states a position but that is often not his final position on that particular subject. It's a starting position.

There is only one thing we can assume - and that is that Trump will do whatever he views as being in his own best interests, and to a lesser extent in the best interests of those who have supported him recently, but in terms of where that leads us, all bets are off.

If he establishes a Bitcoin reserve, or whatever you want to call it, because he's pro-Bitcoin, and his son is heavily into it, that could drive Bitcoin to even more rediculous levels, and have a negative effect on gold, but outside of that, next year should be another positive year for gold in my view, particularly as more and more large players exit or reduce their US Bonds and other US dollar investments and look for alternative stores of value that can't be erroded in the way that traditional currencies can.

It won't be up in a straight line, and we might see a decent pullback over the next couple of months first, but gold is not something I try to time, because nobody can accurately predict what gold will do, so it could tear higher at any time, for any reason; you just have to be in it before that happens.

Watching Friday's MoM podcast earlier today, I was reminded that you can't predict the gold price based on supply and demand expectations, because:

1. The vast majority of gold producers will sell every ounce of gold they produce, regardless of the price they receive, unlike in some other commodities where stockpiling during periods of lower prices is more common, so in that sense supply is fairly predictable with gold; but
2. Gold demand is entirely unpredictable because nobody NEEDS to buy gold every week, it's hugely sentiment driven, and sentiment can turn on a dime, multiple times in a single day in fact, let alone weekly and monthly.
3. Because such a tiny percentage of gold is used in ongoing industrial applications, i.e. used to make something else such as gold plated electrical components for example, and the VAST MAJORITY of gold is bought for investment purposes, the gold price behaves like no other metal on earth.

So, NO predictions, at least none with any sense of certainty or even a sense of comfort, but on the whole I feel it in my bones that gold goes higher over time from here.

And my preferred exposure to gold is via quality gold producing companies with excellent TSRs.

Northern Star (NST) has been the poster child for that in prior years, and with the Fimiston mill expansion (the Super Pit expansion) due for completion in the next couple of years, NST still have growth, and I hold NST both here and in my SMSF, but Genesis (GMD) is the pick of the crop for quality growth over the next 3 to 5 years, in my opinion, so I have a larger exposure to Genesis than to NST at this particular point in time.

19th April 2025: Update:

Raising my price target to $4.82 as Genesis shot straight through my old one. See here for my commentary around their latest (March 2025) quarterly report: https://strawman.com/reports/GMD/Bear77?view-straw=28349 - that will likely take you back to this GMD "valuation" of mine - which is more of a price target and investment thesis - and the straw will appear below it if you scroll down far enough - you can access the comments thread here (click on the word "here") which also includes that straw linked to above.

Still holding this and Ral (GMD's CEO and MD) is executing on his vision and guidance for Genesis, so they have further to run, IMO, despite a fair bit of future growth already being priced in up here, as long as Ral keeps delivering.

I also expect further positive M&A from Genesis, so we'll likely get organic and inorganic growth, to keep raising the bar / expectations in terms of future production (ounces of gold produced per annum). I think that while Vault's KOTH mill (surrounded on three sides by Genesis' tenements and located a little north of Leonora) is always at the forefront of commentators and analysts minds when it comes to Ral's future acquisition targets, it is far more likely (IMO) that Ral will first move on smaller players and assets around Laverton to fill up their Laverton Mill that they recently brought back online.

I've had a look at those possible Laverton targets, companies like Focus Minerals (FML) whose Laverton assets are for sale, Magnetic Resources (MAU) who are clearly for sale (many of us remember how MAU's MD, George Sakalidis blurted out during D&D last year that Magnetic already had at least two companies in their data room preparing offers, a level of disclosure which apparently scared those companies away at that time), and Brightstar Resources (BTR) who already have an Ore Purchase Agreement (OPA) with Genesis, which allows Brightstar to deliver, sell, and process up to 500,000 tonnes of ore at Genesis's Laverton Mill.

FML is majority Chinese owned - 63.19% of FML is owned by Shandong Gold International Mining Corporation Limited - so my best guess is that FML as a company is not for sale, despite their Laverton gold assets being for sale, however a full acquisition of BTR or MAU is always a possibility. However, I'm not positioned in those possible acquisition targets (i.e. I do NOT hold FML, BTR or MAU shares) because I've been caught out previously trying to anticipate M&A moves, and we don't have all the facts; we don't know how that pans out. Ral could make a move on one or more of those three, or not, or make a different move on an entirely different company or asset. My play is to just hold Genesis, and enjoy the ride.

And the gold price is certainly not doing Genesis any harm:

Source: https://goldprice.org/gold-price-australia.html [accessed at 11:50am Sydney Time, 19th April 2025, prices were current as at 5:15pm New York time on 18th April 2025]

That's a solid uptrend, and Genesis are one of the Aussie gold sector's best growth stories, so it's little wonder their share price chart is also in a similar uptrend.

GMD has outperformed the other 4 gold miners that together with GMD make up Australia's largest 5 gold miners by market capitalisation, and they've all thrashed the ASX200 TR Index (XJO):

Disclosure: I'm holding GMD, NST & EVN. NST are in the process of acquiring DEG.

7th May 2026: Update:

Raising PT to $9.75. They're bigger and better now - as expected - since my last update, and the gold price is higher too.

After acquiring FML's Laverton assets, GMD is now acquiring all of MAU (Magnetic Resources), so will also own the Lady Julie gold project providing even more high grade ore for their Laverton mill.

Here's how those MAU tenements fit in to GMD's Laverton Tenements - very nicely:

The yellow tenements are the MAU tenements.

I've just written a decent length straw about why I still like this company so much - so I won't repeat it all here, but yeah, I reckon their SP is heading further north and $9.75 within the next 2 years looks very achievable once they resume their previous uptrend:

So, yeah, I'm calling $9.75/share or higher for GMD by May 2028. [not advice].