Forum Topics C79 C79 C79 Trading Update

Pinned straw:

Added 2 months ago

Discl: Held IRL 7.88% and in SM

Have been quite surprised by the C79 price action following yesterday’s Trading Update as I thought it had a lot of positive news in it, with possibly 1 downside.

RECORD SAMPLE VOLUMES

Record 1m + samples processed in a single month in consecutive months of March and April 2026 - this is really positive as it represents (1) continued growth in uptake of photon assay and (2) drops straight into Additional Assay Charges (AAC) revenue and profitability.

Not only has it been steadily rising month-on-month this FY, the volume of samples processed is a huge 50-100% jump from the prior corresponding month in FY2025.

AAC was 27.1% of revenue in 1HFY26, up from 11.2% 1HFY25 - the full-year FY26 number could end up being higher if this 1m+ monthly volumes are sustained in May and June.

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NEW PHOTON ASSAY AGREEMENTS

There has been a noticeable acceleration in NEW Photon Assay agreements signed - this is hugely positive

  • 19 were signed in FY26 YTD, with 5 since 1HFY26, these 5 being:
  • ALS added 2 units, 16 in total, 4 of these relate to entering new regions for C79
  • Bureau Veritas added 1 more unit
  • Allied Gold added a 2nd unit plus one more miner-contracted unit

This diversification across customers and contracting models is healthy

To put this in perspective:

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DEPLOYMENTS

Probably a source of market disappointment, if it was indeed disappointed.

Only 1 unit was deployed since the 1HFY26 Update and it would appear only 1 further unit, currently installing, will be done by EOFY FY26 (8 weeks installation time) - that is only par for the course really

But was very encouraging was the deployment pipeline:

  • 4 are ready for installation, from the ‘awaiting site readiness” comment, it looks like the issue is not on the C79 end, but rather on the customer end
  • 4 are being shipped to site

This means that FY27 should see a minimum of 8 units deployed - that is not a bad place to be at all.

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CASH & DEBT

At ~$4m per unit, funding does not appear to be an issue, with little risk of a capital raise, with the $200m debt facility coming soon.

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GUIDANCE

No change to FY26 guidance, but C79 is now tracking to the upper end of the guidance range from the contribution of sustained high sample volumes:

  • Revenue: $80m to $90m
  • EBITDA: $20m to $27m


CHART REVIEW

Since breaking the green uptrend line and the 200 SMA line, in mid-Mar 2026, the C79 price has bounced between $6.68-$6.79 and $7.88 to $8.01 - my partial top up at $7.30 on 20 Mar 2026, per the last Chart Update, was not optimal as it turned out.

The price today successfully tested and stayed above the $6.68 to $6.79 support level - this appears to be a reasonably strong support level given the number of times it has held up in the past 6 to 8 weeks.

Given that the news is mostly positive, I suspect the price should continue to stay above, but bounce around these levels. If this level does not hold, then ~$6.15 is the next level down.

On the upside, the price will likely bounce around ~$7.29, then run into resistance between $7.88 and $8.01, which also happens to where the medium-term uptrend line is.

Will be looking at ~$6.68 to top up the remaining allocation to complete buying back into the parcel I sold at $9.98.

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Raseekingalpha
Added a month ago

Hi @jcmleng why the stock is falling now closer to 6 is their any new news, or is tpurely sentimense & technical

Thanks

Ram

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jcmleng
Added a month ago

Have no idea @Raseekingalpha. The last Trading Update was all the news there is that I am aware off and it was a positive one.

Gold mining continues to happen. C79 continue to record monthly sample volumes, all of which drip to the bottomline as cost is already recovered through the subscription of the units - this is pure honey on top. Deployment is slower than I would like, but for all deployed units, subscriptions continue and really cannot go backwards. New units to be deployed are where they physically need to be, at or near customer sites. New contracts are being signed at a faster clip. Plenty of cash and debt to fund deployment, can't see a need for capital raise at all. Guidance at the top end of the range.

Can't see anything not to like or any near term risks.

I didn't follow through with my ~6.68 thinking, thankfully, just picked up a small top up lot at 6.05 today.

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