Forum Topics SPZ SPZ Q3FY26 Update

Pinned straw:

Last edited a month ago

A brief Q3 update from SPZ was released last night after the market closed. Probably needs to be taken with a grain of salt given the lack of any critical questioning but reads to me like we might get a decent SP pop this morning

  • Total ANPR sites has increased from 1,852 (Dec 2025) -> 1979 (Apr 2026). Interestingly the growth was almost entirely UK based, with 115 new sites in the UK. 43 new sites added in NZ. Not sure how the math works there, a few sites lost somewhere? Also not many new sites added in the US in the first 4 months, currently 19 ANPR sites vs the previous update of 12.
  • The mysterious lack of growth in UK fines (PBN's) for the 1H that they blamed on cost of living has reverted to growth, with +10% in UK PBN's vs PCP. Total fines issued for the group is up 19% on the PCP. As @mikebrisy always mentions though this fails to strip out the Peak Parking acquisition in March last year
  • CEO Paul Gillespie is relocating to the US in H1FY27 to help push the growth agenda. This ties in with the hiring of sales teams in Austin, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Indianapolis, Seattle and Tampa
  • The transferred systems from QLD to NZ are paying off with +31% PBN's in NZ vs PCP
  • Germany reported +52% in PBN's vs the PCP, although this was off a low base. Germany has now moved into profitability after a slow start which will help subsidise some losses from the new Switzerland operations.


Overall, another strong update from a management team that doesn't put many feet wrong. I'm slightly surprised at the slow growth in US sites given it's been over a year of ownership, but it sounds like they are really prioritising that with the new sales teams and the CEO moving, so hopefully those results shine through over the rest of the year.


twee
Added a month ago

Some orange flags in the reporting in the presentation. The growth in sites has slowed for Fy26 vs Fy25 but this is downplayed in the presentation. There's a change in how they report sites from total sites to total sites with ANPR.

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There's a clear shift in narrative for the business with the CEO moving to US. In my opinion, this also implies lower growth expectations for other geographies, especially the UK. The preso mentions some 'site rotations' in US, is this losing sites? The total US location numbers are not stated but were 139 at H1. A cynic might say that's why they changed to total ANPR sites, so they don't have to state the decline in US sites but they can count the increase of 19 US ANPR sites. Does the CEO move indicate underlying issues in the US? Have the earn out incentives for Peak parking lead to some short term focus rather than long term? 

With the share price decline, it's no longer priced for perfection, but I think it's still reliant on US for me to earn a good return from here. There are a few risks and unknowns re the US side of things plus UK moving parts plus the ever present regulatory risk. Add to this the need to look beyond all the numbers and management statements and it's not a obvious one for me and especially not prior to the full year results. Disclosure: I did sell some of my holding recently so that may colour my thinking.

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mikebrisy
Added a month ago

@twee interesting perspectives. A few quick thoughts from me.

ANPR Sites

I always attributed the shift from Total Sites to Total ANPR Sites as being down to the acquisition of Peak. The acquired Peak had manual sites and its choice as an acquisition target was its geographic footprint (states with a regulatory environment suited to ANPR technology) and management team, and not the legacy sites it had. So, ever since acquistion, management have been clear on the progress of ANPR Sites as the key measure, because those are the only ones that are core to the $SPZ strategy and business model. Anyway, that's how I saw it.

CEO Relocation

I do consider the CEO location move as significant. Paul Gillespie is very attuned to how important the local leader is to the progress of the business. He's been quite candid (in SM meetings, I think) about how they struggled to make early traction in Germany because they did not have the right guy in place. On the one hand we could see this as a negative flag, in that he may be moving to manage succession with the founder of Peak moving on once he's fully cashed up. Hopefully, by doing this proactively, it won't affect US momentum.

Alternatively, it could be a purely proactive and positive move - because the US market potential materially exceeds the rest of the group portfolio combined. So it really does make sense for the CEO to be there. Peak are now operating in several states, and perhaps the US CEO needs more leadership support to drive the business forward.

Whether positive or negative, I believe it is significant. Paul is Melbourne-based, indicating that he has been happy for Jo Hiney to drive the UK business since 2021, as the UK GM (she's been with $SPZ since 2015). So, I don't draw any inference about the UK from Paul's move to the US. If anything, once in the US, it's actually easier to get to the UK!

Recent SP Movement

Like others here, I have been puzzled regarding the selloff. In part, I've seen it as i) the penny dropping a bit slower than the rest of the software tech sector - obviously because $SPZ is more than software, ii) the general outlook for higher interest rates impacting growth companies (outside of those in the core AI theme, which has driven the NASDAQ - hyperscalers, chips, storage etc.) I also had a third point - the 1H FY26 PBN number and reliance on pulling the collections lever to drive revenue growth, which was a puzzling result. And then of course, once the selldown starts, momentum does its thing until there is material new information to the contrary.

Other Disclosures in the Presentation

  • On sites: 1852 (Dec-25) to 1943 (Mar-26) to 1979 (Apr-26) is pretty decent
  • UK PBNs returning to growth is positive, but as others have noted, let's see what the collections look like at the FY.
  • Germany - Jan breakeven is not bad, but I don't know what significance to attach to a monthly datapoint
  • NZ seems OK - still strong
  • US 19 ANPR sites, whereas it was 13 "live" ANPR sites in the 1H FY26 presentation.

So, the US ANPR site additions seems a bit underwhleming, and therein I think lies the clue for the US CEO relocation. The next clue is that they are growing sales capability in 7 cities across 5 states. That sounds like quite a big management task. The stakes are high and perhaps Paul has made the call that he needs to be closer to this very significant investment to drive culture and performance. So, it could be a good and very proactive thing.

My Holding

In RL, I was uncomfortable that $SPZ had become my largest holding and so I have been selling down slowly starting at $0.94 in Sep-25, and as high as $1.34 in Nov-25,... more on portfolio balance considerations, than any concern about valuation.

I didn't want my position size to become too large because there is still a large regulatory exposure to the UK, and I was getting uncomfortable that at its peak, $SPZ made up 14% of my RL ASX portfolio. (We are yet to hear UK Goverment response on the parking code/regulation consultation - but I don't think anything has leaked on that.)

In summary, over time I have sold down more than my cost base in $SPZ and now have a 6% position for me in RL, which I am happy to hold and to continue to see how the business progresses over the medium term.

It will be interesting to see how the US plays out.

Disc: Held

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Noddy74
Added a month ago

I like your take @twee

It does feel like they have a simple grid dashboard with regions on one axis and metrics on another - sites, PBNs, $s per PBN etc. - and they've overlayed a RAG analysis. Then they've, first, given us all the Greens and, second, said of what's left what will we be slaughtered for if we don't disclose. Personally, I'd prefer that if you're not going to be consistent about quarterly, just disclose twice a year. If Green jelly beans are your favorites [see sidebar] fair play, BUT if you love green jellybeans I've got no sympathy.

It IS interesting that Paul is moving to the US. I'm not sure whether this is signal or noise. The US is important to their growth story but is it reinforcing their most promising region, propping up an awkward acquisition or just where they want to live? I'm not qualified for that one.

[Sidebar: I asked Gemini it's favourite colored jellybean and it's clear that LLMs have started smoking crack cos it went with blueberry. Not even a color. Your aspirations of becoming Skynet are a long way off sister! My favourite? Purple. Red is next. Here's where it gets controversial. I go black, and once you do you can't go back. If you're walking down the supermarket isle and pass the licorice section wondering who under the age of 80 is buying those - it's me! If you're a jellybean and you're not one of those, then you're just making up the numbers. Blues are ok. You could do worse than whites and oranges. But the only purpose of green jelly beans is to remind you that better beans exist.]

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Strawman
Added a month ago

Good insights team, and nice catch on the ANPR site reporting @twee

I know the US is the shiny new thing at the moment, but it does look like Germany is (finally) hitting its strides after a rough start. Worth remembering that the addressable market there is double the UK's TAM so having crossed into profitability and posting 52% PBN growth (albeit off a small base) is noteworthy. IF they've got the right team in place and they can sustain momentum, there's a long way to run.

As with anything, it's not without its risks, but i think management have a good business model and track-record, and am happy to take advantage of the pullback.

Oh, and i'm 100% with you on the black jelly beans @Noddy74. The bean of choice for those with a refined palate.

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Dangles
Added a month ago

A few thoughts on SPZ this morning:-

  • Firstly, the most likely reason in my mind for the CEO moving to the USA is because as he told the Strawman community himself, they see massive potential in the US market and it could easily be their biggest earner over the medium-term! As a shareholder, I am thrilled that the CEO is moving over to help focus and allocate resources in the companies' biggest market opportunity. And as @mikebrisy mentions, he's now significantly closer to their current largest market (UK) and the other growth markets (Germany, Switzerland, etc). Is there a possibility that we will find out about Peak Parking executives departing or management changes shortly due to the end of the earn out? Certainly, but this is a completely normal occurrence when taking over a business. I also think that if you were a Peak Parking executive, the market opportunity ahead of you is kind of massive and as long as SPZ is incentivizing these exec's appropriately, there would be a pretty appealing business case to staying on and being apart of a business that's adding sales teams in multiple major US cities.
  • SPZ Changing their reporting from total sites to total sites with ANPR should be encouraged. The business opportunity for SPZ is in minimal labour, automated ANPR managed parking lots versus traditional managed lots which are far less lucrative. It is entirely possible that there has been some churn in the non-ANPR peak parking lots which would be an orange flag as has been suggested, but over the longer run, ANPR sites is the critical measure.
  • Finally, my last point is that this is a business where zooming out from the quarter-to-quarter minutiae is I think very important. Total ANPR sites is currently just under 2,000 sites. Total TAM of the USA is apparently 2 billion car parks (lol), as well as 45,000 sites in the UK and 90,000 sites in Germany. It is not at all difficult to foresee this business basically doubling in total sites under management in the next two years if we're disappointed by a quarter with only 120 new sites. And that's before any potential M&A activity as the existing business continues to spit out FCF at an attractive rate. This is a business with a big market opportunity, what seems to be a mild amount of competition? very sticky customers with the one negative being potential regulation from populist style governments, but even in that negative, the current risks seems pretty moderate, the management team is conservative and has done a very good job it seems of quietly lobbying their cause in their major market the UK. Overall, this is a business I would love to be holding in 5 years time - it's hard to see a competitor coming in that will hammer their existing market share, they are currently growing and investing further in a bigger sales team and even better they are diversifying themselves, to limit the downside of their biggest negative being regulation.


Disc - Held

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Stevie_B
Added a month ago

Whilst I remain south of 80 years @Noddy74 my long-standing affection for the black arts was abruptly terminated last month when my partner “helpfully” informed me that glycyrrhizin — found in some black jelly beans and liquorice — has an inconvenient tendency to elevate blood pressure.


May your la confiserie noire intake stay comfortably this side of an avoidable ambulance ride.

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Rocket6
Added 3 weeks ago

Sorry for my delay in commenting here folks. Life has been busy of late.

@twee thanks for your comments, they made me reflect. I disagree with some of your analysis though, mainly around the addition of total sites with ANPR being an orange flag and lower growth expectations.

Management has demonstrated now, over many years, that they will intentionally restrict growth of sites (where relevant) by facilitating the removal of sites that are not economical. By adding ANPR into their metrics, yes it slightly alters their reporting, but they are choosing to highlight their bread and butter i.e. the sites with their technology installed. This allows management to better articulate changes occurring in the US (and there will be plenty of questions as sites decrease in the US, most will wonder WTF?). Ultimately this market is very different from their other markets, so I think that reporting change is absolutely fair enough. We saw in H1 that they removed some underperforming/uneconomical sites, let this practice continue if you ask me! But it is not new for them.

In H1 reporting, we got some insight into the split: "1,982 total sites (comprising 1,852 ANPR sites and 130 USA sites) under management as at 31 December 2025". I think it is almost beneficial to start from 0 with US sites (at least in my head). Management will slowly shift some across to ANPR, but ultimately they will remove plenty -- probably a majority.

Yes, perhaps they are 'reliant' on the US doing well, but some of their other jurisdictions are equally important. I do think they are spreading themselves pretty quickly throughout the US, but the CEO moving there for me -- which we can speculate either way -- suggests he sees an opportunity or the need, for one reason or another. He has typically been very measured in his approach to growth, so ultimately I will back him.

I also don't think it implies lower growth expectations in their other regions, either. In fact this is where my primary disagreement comes from. While the US is (obviously) important, Germany is the current sleeping giant for me at the moment. We didn't get much insight into site increases in their recent update, but from H1 FY25 to H1 FY26 sites nearly doubled. They do appear to be profitable now in this market too. Not to mention the UK is also still growing nicely, 115 new live sites from Jan to April 2026 demonstrates this.

I wouldn't personally look too much at the share price decline. That is consistent with a good portion of the 'alleged' tech market. Ignore the valuation noise; this has served me well with Smart Parking over many years. But I also acknowledge that some of their reporting will be lumpy in parts, particularly when upfront Capex is being made, macro conditions impact them (which they can do), or they make acquisitions. We have obviously seen them make their biggest one ever, but I think they deserve time to get it right. Ultimately this wasn't an add on, or about trying to increase their reporting metrics, it is about them getting access to a reasonable baseline to grow from in the US. Was it worth $50m AUD, which should be maximum consideration, to make this investment, or were they better off going alone like they have in other jurisdictions and slowly building out their business? Who knows. Acquisitions normally backfire for shareholders, but ultimately if their US enterprise is spitting cash in five years time, similar to their UK operation, perhaps the initial acquisition investment will look like a no brainer (hope so!). I lean more towards, looking backwards, it will one day look like a really good piece of business. But I could be wrong.

I will make one comment/prediction (a mugs game, I know), but Smart Parking results typically outperform in H2, for various reasons. But I expect H2 will be no different with the exception of the US site figures. I think we will see some positive $$ figures reported for both their NZ and Germany operations. Despite the tough operating conditions at the moment (cost of living in the UK etc), I suspect their UK operations will show more resilience than people think too.

Disclaimer - Smart Parking is currently a 42% weighting in my portfolio. Very concentrated and not for everyone, I know, but I am normally pretty concentrated in my portfolio outside of super. That said, I would be a buyer at today's share price if my weighting wasn't already this high!

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Jarrahman
Added a month ago

I've been trying to reconcile the ~35% decline in share price in the last little while and haven't really got any answers.

If consumers are tightening their belt, the rational response would be for the businesses they spend their money at to wanting a greater turnover of customers. A good way to do that is to get monitor parking out the front door so that there is the appropriate turnover.

If consumers are spending more, then the same thing applies...

There has been no material announcements since 17 Feb yet it's slid 35%.

The only thing I can't see in this presentation is the conversion of PBN to cash. They highlight the increase in PBN, but that doesn't mean stuff all if they're not being paid.

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tomsmithidg
Added a month ago

You called it @Dangles up over 11% so far as I type this.

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