@twee interesting perspectives. A few quick thoughts from me.
ANPR Sites
I always attributed the shift from Total Sites to Total ANPR Sites as being down to the acquisition of Peak. The acquired Peak had manual sites and its choice as an acquisition target was its geographic footprint (states with a regulatory environment suited to ANPR technology) and management team, and not the legacy sites it had. So, ever since acquistion, management have been clear on the progress of ANPR Sites as the key measure, because those are the only ones that are core to the $SPZ strategy and business model. Anyway, that's how I saw it.
CEO Relocation
I do consider the CEO location move as significant. Paul Gillespie is very attuned to how important the local leader is to the progress of the business. He's been quite candid (in SM meetings, I think) about how they struggled to make early traction in Germany because they did not have the right guy in place. On the one hand we could see this as a negative flag, in that he may be moving to manage succession with the founder of Peak moving on once he's fully cashed up. Hopefully, by doing this proactively, it won't affect US momentum.
Alternatively, it could be a purely proactive and positive move - because the US market potential materially exceeds the rest of the group portfolio combined. So it really does make sense for the CEO to be there. Peak are now operating in several states, and perhaps the US CEO needs more leadership support to drive the business forward.
Whether positive or negative, I believe it is significant. Paul is Melbourne-based, indicating that he has been happy for Jo Hiney to drive the UK business since 2021, as the UK GM (she's been with $SPZ since 2015). So, I don't draw any inference about the UK from Paul's move to the US. If anything, once in the US, it's actually easier to get to the UK!
Recent SP Movement
Like others here, I have been puzzled regarding the selloff. In part, I've seen it as i) the penny dropping a bit slower than the rest of the software tech sector - obviously because $SPZ is more than software, ii) the general outlook for higher interest rates impacting growth companies (outside of those in the core AI theme, which has driven the NASDAQ - hyperscalers, chips, storage etc.) I also had a third point - the 1H FY26 PBN number and reliance on pulling the collections lever to drive revenue growth, which was a puzzling result. And then of course, once the selldown starts, momentum does its thing until there is material new information to the contrary.
Other Disclosures in the Presentation
- On sites: 1852 (Dec-25) to 1943 (Mar-26) to 1979 (Apr-26) is pretty decent
- UK PBNs returning to growth is positive, but as others have noted, let's see what the collections look like at the FY.
- Germany - Jan breakeven is not bad, but I don't know what significance to attach to a monthly datapoint
- NZ seems OK - still strong
- US 19 ANPR sites, whereas it was 13 "live" ANPR sites in the 1H FY26 presentation.
So, the US ANPR site additions seems a bit underwhleming, and therein I think lies the clue for the US CEO relocation. The next clue is that they are growing sales capability in 7 cities across 5 states. That sounds like quite a big management task. The stakes are high and perhaps Paul has made the call that he needs to be closer to this very significant investment to drive culture and performance. So, it could be a good and very proactive thing.
My Holding
In RL, I was uncomfortable that $SPZ had become my largest holding and so I have been selling down slowly starting at $0.94 in Sep-25, and as high as $1.34 in Nov-25,... more on portfolio balance considerations, than any concern about valuation.
I didn't want my position size to become too large because there is still a large regulatory exposure to the UK, and I was getting uncomfortable that at its peak, $SPZ made up 14% of my RL ASX portfolio. (We are yet to hear UK Goverment response on the parking code/regulation consultation - but I don't think anything has leaked on that.)
In summary, over time I have sold down more than my cost base in $SPZ and now have a 6% position for me in RL, which I am happy to hold and to continue to see how the business progresses over the medium term.
It will be interesting to see how the US plays out.
Disc: Held