Pinned straw:
@jcmleng that's a great write-up and I think you have grasped the key issues - and the big questions.
At this stage, I am not extrapolating the DSV-Tango risk across the industry, however, I now perceive it as much more of a risk than I did a few months ago. Over the last couple of decades, many if not most of the logistics service providers and transportation companies, have decided that software development is not their thing, and we've seen the development of a vast ecosystem of IT system providers, who over time have largely embraced cloud solutions.
But to challenge this assumption, I've recently done a deep dive into this topic (assisted by BA) and the summary findings are included at the bottom of this post, below the dashed line.
My sense from the research is that across the logistics and supply chain services industry has pretty much every conceivable combination across the spectrumfrom "pure in-house" through "hybrid" to "pure outsourced" of core software architectures. Of course, it is wrong for me to frame this as a one-dimensional continuum, as there is a large universe of business processes that have been systematised, and many, many systems and collections of system and modules, with various integrations. Arguably, the system architecture of every operator is as unique as each fingerprint!
But looking at some of the names in the summary below (some of whom are CargoWise customers) led me to conclude that operators as a collective have retained more systems development capability that I had hitherto considered was the case.
The DSV case is therefore imformative. DSV acquired DB Shenker, who had developed Tango in-house. After a few years, they've have made the decision to roll out Tango to DSV, and not deploy Cargowise from DSV into DB Shenker. With that direction apparently now set, you are right to point out that should they acquire future CargoWise customers, then Tango would be similarly deployed into them. Given the continuing industry consolidation, it is only a matter of time before DSV does the next acquisition. And so one part of the $WTC thesis is under threat. That part of the thesis was that, CargoWise, as the dominant system for Global Freight Forwarders would expand its industry share, as the larger, and more successful firms acquired other firms, and replace their legacy systems with CargoWise.
DSV, as well as some of the other firms identified below, have clearly retained sufficient software development capabilities that they will no doubt also benefit from reduced software maintenance and development costs enabled by AI. Will they be as good as integrating AI agents into their platforms and software specialists like $WTC? Perhaps not, but I can't say for sure.
Not all logistics players will have the strategic option available to DSV. Many - in fact - most, have been "hollowed out" in terms of software development capabilities. Coming back from this would be a journey years in the making, should they decide to, even in an AI age. More generally, I think any overall trends in the industry from outsourced to insourced software development is going to evolve over years, and possibly decades. How much AI and Agentic AI proves to accelerate any potential change remains to be seen.
However, this case has been an orange flag for me. You see, information is what enables logistics and supply chain services firms to function. The more firms can leverage information across the supply chain, the better and more value-adding services they can offer customers. Given this, it should come as no surprise that several logistics and supply chain firms have retained in-house software development capabilities, and spent decades developing their own systems.
My Current View on $WTC
With the recent upheaval in the SaaS sector, I have made major changes in my RL portfolio, and I now have a very small position in $WTC (less than 1%)
Disc: Held (less than 1%)
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Summary of Research (by ChatGPT, edited by Mikebrisy)
A review of publicly-available sources shows that genuinely proprietary, operationally material systems do exist among major logistics companies, but they are less common than marketing language about “digital platforms” might suggest.
The clearest large-scale cases are C.H. Robinson’s Navisphere, Expeditors’ internally designed technology platform now surfaced as EXP.O NOW and related applications, J.B. Hunt’s J.B. Hunt 360°, UPS’s ORION family, Delhivery’s CoreOS logistics operating system, Yamato’s Yamato Digital Platform, Nippon Express’s proprietary WMS/DCX WMS, DP World’s CARGOES suite and Zodiac terminal operating system, and CJ Logistics’ proprietary WMS / end-to-end logistics IT stack. DHL Global Forwarding’s myDHLi and Kuehne+Nagel’s myKN are also important, but for those firms the public sources reveal the customer-facing layer more clearly than the full internal operating backbone.
The strongest evidence comes where official sources explicitly use terms such as proprietary, self-developed, in-house, or connected to our own TMS. Under that standard, Delhivery, C.H. Robinson, Nippon Express, GEODIS, CJ Logistics, DP World, UPS and Yamato disclose the most direct language. Expeditors sits slightly differently: its 2023 annual report says the platform is “designed, coded, tested and implemented” by Expeditors’ logistics and technology personnel, while also noting that the stack includes proprietary, third-party and open-source technologies; that still qualifies as an internally built operating platform rather than an outsourced freight-forwarding package.
A second major finding is that “proprietary” rarely means “isolated.” Even the strongest in-house platforms are built to interoperate with customer TMSs, partner networks, APIs, EDI, middleware, devices, and sometimes external financial or customs ecosystems. The differentiator is not total technical isolation; it is whether the logistics company owns and controls the operational core, the data model, the workflows, and the roadmap for the principal activity. That pattern is especially visible at C.H. Robinson, J.B. Hunt, GEODIS, Kuehne+Nagel, Delhivery, Nippon Express, DP World and CJ Logistics.
A final analytical point is that many leading firms have evolved from a first generation of quote-book-track portals into a second generation of broader operational systems that add analytics, carbon reporting, visibility, optimization, AI, and partner collaboration. The best-documented examples are myDHLi, myKN, IRIS 3.0, J.B. Hunt 360°, Navisphere’s recent Lean AI expansion, Delhivery’s CoreOS, and UPS’s progression from ORION to UPSNav and Dynamic ORION.