Based on the record FY26 results just released, I am updating my valuation for Catapult sticking to my preferred simple approach.

Since the company blew past expectations and hit US$133m in ACV this year, we are starting from a much higher base. Will still has that US$1 billion ACV target in his sights, and while the total growth was a massive 28% percent this year (including acquisitions) I will keep my growth assumption at a steady 20% going forward to stay conservative. At that rate, they would actually hit the US$1b mark in about 11 years, which brings our target year forward to 2037.

Assuming that ACV approximates revenue by then and management hits that 30% EBITDA margin they have been targeting, the business would be doing US$300m in EBITDA in 2037. If we apply the same 12x multiple and discount it back by 10% per year, we get a present valuation of US$1,262 million in today's money. I have adjusted the projected share count too, noting the historical dilution 3-5% annually excluding M&A, so assuming it grows to 430m shares by 2037 feels about right.

To convert this into Australian dollars, I have used a 72c exchange rate instead of the previous 63c one. This brings the valuation to roughly A$1,753m. When you divide that by the 430m shares, the valuation lands at $4.08 Australian dollars per share.