The other thing that I have tried to quantify, is how much of a boost to Penthrox sales can be expected from paediatric approval in Europe.

Frustratingly, there is no data about what percentage of penthrox use in Australia is for children. Claude's best guess is 10 - 20%, but with poor data and high uncertainty.

Worldwide, only around 10% of ambulance call outs are for children. Plus penthrox is only targeting children aged 6 - 12, so that will be quite a lot less than 10%. But on the plus side, children are relatively more likely to present with trauma than adults. And devices providing pain relief without needles are relatively more attractive in children. Plus there is likely a familiarity effect, whereby the more opportunities medics have to use a device or treatment, the more comfortable they become with it and the more they use it. So availability in children might help drive increased adult use as well over time.

So the upshot is, paediatric approval is likely IMO to provide a significant, but not game-changing boost to penthrox sales in Europe. My best guess, conservatively, is somewhere in the 10 - 15% range.

Currently Penthrox sales in Europe are in the ballpark of $9 million per year. So maybe you could expect around $1 million extra annual revenue, although it might take several years to arrive.

But on the plus side, children are relatively more likely to present with trauma than adults.

That did make me giggle.

@Noddy74 The sad thing is that I wasn't even trying to be funny. As an MVP shareholder, I pray for a good ski season and the continuing popularity of mountainbikes :-)

Just came across this today in the local rag. Just another example of the potential for this device:

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/professional/green-light-for-green-whistles

Looks like the VIC government is making it available in all 20 of their Women's health hubs by mid this year for IUD's. Nil in other states however. May be a case of follow the government grants. If it gets a start in procedural analgesia within Australia this would signal a rather large change in market and potential revenue.

I can't find any case studies but there would be a risk of triggering malignant hyperthermia, if that did happen and there was a death then that could be an unlikely but pretty big hit to the company.

I remember having to draw the chemical structure for methoxyflurane for an examiner in 2013 in the depths of the Pullman, Albert park in melbourne. Still get chills if I ever have to walk into a Pullman.