Pinned straw:
Capital on Tap
This is probably the best (and most orderly) way I’ve seen Anteris raise capital yet:
$250 million USD agreement with investment bank TD Cowen. There’s no immediate need for capital (following the recent raise), but there are a number of good points to this that I can see:
- It goes some way to future-proof Anteris upon completion of the pivotal trial when negotiating scaling up.
- Makes us less dependant on Medtronic at that time. Any move in that direction helps keep the path open for a proper bidding war.
- Minimises dilution at low prices. On current prices I see a maximum dilution of 25% (my valuation accounts for a 50% dilution over next 6 years).
- May smooth out volatility — Anteris is currently on a tear, up 68% the past month on volumes of over double the average on many days. Over 2 million shares exchanging hands on NASDAQ last night. Not that I’m complaining about the price going up. It’s just that I know the inevitable retracing can happen just as fast (or faster) and that scares away good institutions and creates opportunities for dodgier ones.
- There is a 3% commission which I don’t know enough about to know if that’s a good deal or not — but I imagine it’s just the cost of doing business.
Agree with reducing reliance on Medtronic. Because they are under a standstill until May 2027, they're locked up and can't accumulate shares on-market right now.
Diluting them ahead of next May forces a better takeover premium down the road, while giving fresh institutions or a second competitor room to build a blocking stake on the open market.
Execution-wise, a 3% cost/discount is incredibly cheap compared to a standard 10% broker fee or the deep discounts to market usually seen on raises of this scale.