Forum Topics SMM SMM Bear Case

Pinned straw:

Last edited a month ago

~3mths into a drill program with near zero commentary on progress or assays. Was 4-6wks from when drilling started and its now week 12.

Qtr report mentioned nothing at all (fault on my part, clearly should've sold) and if the visuals were good they'd have said something along the way.

Then at RIU a month ago, the MD said they had some weather delays to drilling that pushed them back a couple of weeks and noted lab turnarounds stretching (only legit thing). Largely unvarifiable reason and never stipulated in writing to investors as well when they easily could of. So from RIU week, 2-3wks and now its 4wks later with nothing.

As such, the drilling at Jura is mostly likely a dud. Punching out of this.

(Will albo share 47% of my losses too?)

BkrDzn
Added a month ago

Impeccable timing lol

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tomsmithidg
Added a month ago

Were you out at open before the 25% drop?

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BkrDzn
Added a month ago

I sold yesterday as I got fed up and knew I should have trusted the gut but a bull market leads to sloppiness at times. I mustn't have been clear is saying that was the case when I said "Punching out of this". But my exit price IRL was $0.012.

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Bear77
Added a month ago

When your gut feel is based on extensive knowledge and experience over many years studying the industry @BkrDzn as yours is, that gut feel is more often right than wrong I reckon, so always good to go with it. Certainly was on this occasion.

My gut feel isn't always so accurate however - I had a gut feel that FRS were overstretched, trying to do too many things at once, including trying to buy gold mills off people who weren't yet ready to sell (Edna May from RMS), and were telegraphing all of their plans via their website which seemed like a serious case of over-sharing that could lead to less-than-ideal outcomes for the company, so I exited at just over breakeven at 50.5 cps on 13th May. Three trading days later they closed at 64 cps (+26.7% higher than my exit price), and while they've been up and down since, they remain 10% above my exit price, so I reckon my thinking was sound, but my timing was terrible.

However, in your case, with SMM, if the IT (investment thesis) was based mostly on positive drillhole results and your gut tells you those are now likely to be mostly dusters, it's an easy call to exit, as you did. Your gut feel was based on specifics. Mine (with FRS) was more based on the "vibe"...

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