Pinned valuation:
3/06/2026 - update
valuation: 0.3
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gr8OKBED6RFpjsdA5QhocQoctPEwtHSkADfSd_pmLW0/edit?tab=t.0
01/06/2026 - original
The valuation follows a weighted probability DCF approach.
Rather than writing out the logic, I will post links to the valuation spreadsheet and the accompanying doc which covers the thought process and stress testing completed in order to get the final result of 0.43.
I would welcome any feedback or questions that may come up after reading both as I think it can only help my own understanding and potential blind spots:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1SiwWNDDT5Rs597cBldCCPlRvqRr5wWfboNOxtDRhgQQ/edit?tab=t.0
Oh and please feel free to make a copy of the spreadsheet and play around with the variables in case you would like to :)
Disc: held
Thanks Zboats, for this. I'm a real novice trying to review this type of work but its helpful to look at. So I can't critique the details of what is a very detailed model, other than that I didn't pick up any outrageous numbers. I prefer the conservatism, like the 18% discount rate you use.
I don't hold XRG yet, but looking to buy soon. I think the story of xReality still hasn't gained a lot of attention or trust isn't there but the customers are and it does look like a good asymmetric opportunity at the moment.