Forum Topics XRG XRG XRG valuation

Pinned valuation:

Added a month ago
Justification

3/06/2026 - update

valuation: 0.3

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k1F2ZH_P2iLisiyJxIqU5dlJm5U3iaHn8mL0dnZy8cA/edit?gid=1009370620#gid=1009370620

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gr8OKBED6RFpjsdA5QhocQoctPEwtHSkADfSd_pmLW0/edit?tab=t.0

01/06/2026 - original

The valuation follows a weighted probability DCF approach.

Rather than writing out the logic, I will post links to the valuation spreadsheet and the accompanying doc which covers the thought process and stress testing completed in order to get the final result of 0.43.

I would welcome any feedback or questions that may come up after reading both as I think it can only help my own understanding and potential blind spots:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1SiwWNDDT5Rs597cBldCCPlRvqRr5wWfboNOxtDRhgQQ/edit?tab=t.0

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1402J9StF2a8v8lkVQGN3A3QwgXRLo1LI5s2k3vNVyz4/edit?gid=1171017432#gid=1171017432

Oh and please feel free to make a copy of the spreadsheet and play around with the variables in case you would like to :)

Disc: held



ApplePark
Added 4 weeks ago

Thanks Zboats, for this. I'm a real novice trying to review this type of work but its helpful to look at. So I can't critique the details of what is a very detailed model, other than that I didn't pick up any outrageous numbers. I prefer the conservatism, like the 18% discount rate you use.

  • Like others, I agree the debt is becoming less of a concern and would rather they hold on to iFly if they can't find a buyer or at least a new tenant. I get the business focus part and the maturity timeline but if the company can sustainably demonstrate that it is cash flow positive up until April '27, couldn't they refinance at a lower rate? More contracts this year will keep lowering the chance of a dilutive raise.


  • Their expanding the offering, which makes me feel comfortable about the base scenario. And expanding their offering in ways that were done via development with customers is high quality in my eyes.
  • Contract structure is favourable for supporting further growth.
  • If there really is leverage with every added customer. It sounds like Wayne has the first hand experience here keeping xReality afloat and watching expenses closely.


  • I'm not confident I understand the quality and conversion of the pipeline and maybe its just too early. It would be great to see Wayne explain how the pipeline is constructed and evaluated and average deal time from top to bottom of the funnel. DroneShield had to quickly evolve how they were explaining theirs and I think it helped a lot in understanding what to expect. Particularly breaking it down into more stages and deal size. Maybe another member has seen something about this?


  • I agree with the risks and especially key person risk. Not only the executives, like Wayne, but also the development team Red Cartel. Good use for an AI agent to keep tabs on LinkedIn.


I don't hold XRG yet, but looking to buy soon. I think the story of xReality still hasn't gained a lot of attention or trust isn't there but the customers are and it does look like a good asymmetric opportunity at the moment.

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