0401 GMT - The appointment of an interim CEO at Lynas Rare Earths highlights the complexity of the role, says Macquarie. The job requires "not only operational and strategic capability but also strong stakeholder management amid heightened geopolitical dynamics," the bank says. Lynas has appointed Chief Operating Officer Pol Le Roux as interim CEO as incumbent Amanda Lacaze prepares to step down. Macquarie calls Le Roux a pair of "safe hands operationally," as one of the miner's most experienced executives. The appointment of a permanent CEO will nevertheless be a near-term focus for investors, alongside the ramp up of the Kalgoorlie plant, says Macquarie. Lacaze's successor has "big shoes to fill," it says. Macquarie has a neutral rating and a A$20.00 target on Lynas. Shares are down 2.4% at A$18.27. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
0356 GMT - Treasury Wine Estates fails to find a bull at Jefferies despite an acknowledgement from the investment bank's analysts that the Australian vintner is trading at an undemanding multiple. Keeping a hold rating on the stock, the analysts tell clients in a note that they still see risk of further disruption to U.S. distribution. They also wonder whether Treasury Wine's depletions metric is overly optimistic, pointing out that third-party Nielsen data is more pessimistic. Nonetheless, they see Treasury Wine's latest update as positive and call its strategy sensible and well articulated. Jefferies raises its target price 8.7% to A$5.00. Shares are up 0.2% at A$4.67. ([email protected])
0348 GMT - Satellite images show significant progress at BHP's Jansen potash project over the past year, UBS says in a note to clients. The storage areas and processing plant appear to be largely complete, it says. Progress on the second-stage expansion appears limited, with only the foundations for the second processing plant visible, the bank says. "Whilst the delayed and more expensive build has been frustrating for shareholders, we continue to see Jansen as a tier-1 asset with first-quartile cost position and long life with attractive economics," UBS says. It has a neutral rating and A$60.00 target on the stock. BHP is down 2.2% at A$61.44. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
0244 GMT - Deep Yellow gains a bull in Jefferies after a recent tumble in its share price. The stock has almost halved from its January peak. Jefferies says it views Deep Yellow as a "cleaner near-term exposure" to uranium prices than some of its producing ASX rivals, which are facing operational challenges. It upgrades the stock to buy from hold. It keeps a A$1.90 target. Shares are up 3.4% at roughly A$1.60. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
0210 GMT - Monadelphous needs contract awards to continue rolling in to meet FY 2027 expectations and justify its premium, says bear Jefferies. The bank estimates about 62% of the company's expected construction revenue for FY27 is now covered by announced contracts. The company on Friday announced a A$380 million contract with CS Energy. "MND still needs some significant wins to meet our FY27 forecasts," Jefferies says. "But we acknowledge the capex environment remains very positive across most commodities." The contractor's shares trade at a significant premium versus peers, the bank notes. "This is not surprising," says Jefferies. However, "maintaining this premium will come down to delivery against if not beating consensus expectations for FY27." The bank has an underperform rating and a A$23.00 target on the stock. Shares fall 0.7% to A$30.49. ([email protected]; @RhiannonHoyle)
0156 GMT - Morgan Stanley analysts lower valuations across their Australian bank coverage by an average of 6% on expectations that changes to tax concessions will end what they call the property market's 30-year super-cycle. They say the changes will fundamentally alter the outlook for residential mortgage growth. They now forecast investor loan balances to remain flat in fiscal 2027. This is similar to 2019, when mortgage rates were falling, lending standards were tighter, and there was discussion that tax concessions could be about to change, they say in a note. ANZ is the only Australian bank rated overweight by MS and remains its sector pick. MS has an underweight rating on Westpac, NAB and Commonwealth Bank. ([email protected])
0138 GMT - Investors can wait on Treasury Wine Estates to show evidence of a meaningful recovery before jumping on the stock, Macquarie analysts reckon. They tell clients in a note that the Australian vintner's valuation over the next one or two years will be driven by how successfully it deleverages its balance sheet and rebalances customer inventories. Citing the multiyear timeframes laid out by the company, they say they will watch for progress before looking to position for a longer-term recovery. The effective reinvestment of savings from Treasury Wine's restructuring and simplification is key, they add. Macquarie raises the stock's target price by 6.7% to 4.80 Australian dollars and stays neutral. The stock is down 0.6% at A$4.63. ([email protected])
0113 GMT - Propel Funeral Partners' trio of New Zealand acquisitions get a positive reception from its bull at Macquarie. After digging through the details, one of the investment bank's analysts raises their revenue forecasts for fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 by about 3%. Earnings growth forecasts also rise, albeit from a lower base as weaker-than-expected guidance drives a 6.2% cut to Macquarie's underlying earnings forecast for the current fiscal year. Nonetheless, the analyst's note suggests that industry volumes and margins are likely to improve from this point, and flags Propel's continued capacity for EPS-accretive acquisitions. Macquarie trims its target price 4.3% to A$5.50 and keeps an outperform rating on the stock, which is down 3.9% at A$3.25. ([email protected])
0035 GMT - EBR Systems' capital raise significantly reduces risks around its plans to scale up the WiSE medical technology, but it was markedly different than Bell Potter's expectations. EBR Systems aimed to raise US$108 million at 0.38 Australian cents a share. Bell Potter had anticipated a US$100 million raise at A$0.63/share. The gap reflects the sharp decline in EBR Systems' share price over the past couple months as the market waited for it to start the funding round, Bell Potter says. EBR aims for this to be last funding round before it reaches breakeven. "This raising should serve as a cathartic event and clear the overhang from the share price," says analyst Martyn Jacobs. Bell Potter retains a buy call and A$2.00/share price target. EBR Systems is downs 11% at A$0.39. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
0034 GMT - Treasury Wine Estates' path looks clearer to Morgan Stanley analysts, but they warn that the Australian vintner still needs to prove it can sustainably grow earnings. Treasury Wine's portfolio simplification and supply-chain rationalization make sense to the investment bank's analysts, who sound positive on its removal of excess capacity and investment behind fewer high-quality brands. However, they tell clients in a note that with inventory rebalancing ongoing in both the U.S. and China, fiscal 2027 will be one of transition. They say margins will be under pressure until the benefits of cost reduction and restructuring are realized. MS lifts its target price 4.9% to A$5.10 and maintains an equal-weight rating on the stock, which is flat at A$4.66. ([email protected])
0022 GMT - Jarden thought Propel Funeral Partners could miss consensus earnings expectations, but not by this much. Propel Funeral Partners signaled FY 2026 operating Ebitda of A$54.5 million-A$56.5 million. That compares with A$56.2 million in FY 2025. Jarden says the guidance implies 2H Ebitda is some 14% below consensus hopes at the midpoint. Still, the bad news was blunted somewhat by some new M&A. "Today's update lowers our conviction in PFP's future like-for-like volume outlook, which over the last ten years has averaged -0.5% per annum versus industry +1.7% per annum," analyst Aryan Norozi. Jarden retains an overweight call, but trims its price target by 15% to A$4.25/share. Propel Funeral Partners falls 5.0% to A$3.21 today. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
0012 GMT - Megaport's bulls at UBS say the cloud connectivity provider's move to double down on its compute business materially changes its earnings trajectory. Analysts at the investment bank raise their Ebitda forecasts from Megaport's next fiscal year on new contract wins and its launch of a new on-demand GPU pool, more than doubling their forecast for fiscal 2028 to A$531.8 million. They write in a note that any questions about how Megaport's recent Latitude.sh acquisition fit into the broader business have been fully answered, and see potential for the stock to further re-rate as investors get a clearer picture of the Australian company's reinvestment plans. UBS raises its target price 45% to A$24.20 and keeps a buy rating on the stock, which is up 25% at A$20.04. ([email protected])
2239 GMT -- Times continue to be tough for drinks packaging company Orora, and Jefferies thinks a FY27 earnings downgrade is likely. Orora's Saverglass business is grappling with consumers shifting away from high-margin spirits to other liquor. "Orora has cited consistent pricing pressure and negative mix impacts, which we don't expect to stabilize until 2H27 at the earliest," says analyst Ramoun Lazar. Jefferies now expects a mix of spirits to wine and champagne of 40/60%, compared to 60/40% in the past. It forecasts FY27 Saverglass revenues to fall 4% on year. "Subsequently, we sit 24% below the street at Ebit for Saverglass in FY27, which is 50% lower than pre-acquisition Ebit on a constant currency basis, with no sign of recovery for spirits," Jefferies says. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires