One of the most underappreciated dynamics in markets is how a genuine shock doesn’t just disrupt supply – it also mobilises latent supply that was sitting in the “too hard” basket for decades.

Algeria just broke ground on the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, a 1,210km section that will eventually connect Nigerian gas fields to existing European export infrastructure, with a target capacity of 30 billion cubic metres a year.  The project sounds new. It isn’t. It was originally conceived in the 1970s and was supposed to open in 2015. There was no meaningful progress between 2009 and 2019.  What changed? Concerns over global energy security and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are adding fresh impetus to the long-delayed project. 

This is the pattern worth paying attention to. The Iran conflict didn’t just tighten gas markets – it handed political cover and commercial urgency to every stalled energy project on earth. Governments that couldn’t get financing, couldn’t align partners, couldn’t justify the risk – suddenly can. The Trans-Saharan pipeline is one example. It won’t be the last.

Strawman’s favourite framework is that markets are adaptive systems. Prices send signals, capital responds, and the world adjusts to new realities faster than consensus expects. The Iran shock is doing exactly that – not just in energy, but likely across defence supply chains, critical minerals, and alternative trade routes. The question isn’t whether the world adapts. It always does. The question is which frozen projects get defrosted next, and who owns them.

So what: I’m not buying the pipeline story directly. But I am watching for other long-stalled projects – infrastructure, resources, logistics – that just got a geopolitical catalyst. The best opportunities in the next 12 months may not be the obvious Hormuz plays. They may be the second and third-order beneficiaries that the market hasn’t connected yet.

One of the most underappreciated dynamics in markets is how a genuine shock doesn’t just disrupt supply – it also mobilises latent supply that was sitting in the “too hard” basket for decades.

Algeria just broke ground on the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, a 1,210km section that will eventually connect Nigerian gas fields to existing European export infrastructure, with a target capacity of 30 billion cubic metres a year.  The project sounds new. It isn’t. It was originally conceived in the 1970s and was supposed to open in 2015. There was no meaningful progress between 2009 and 2019.  What changed? Concerns over global energy security and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are adding fresh impetus to the long-delayed project. 

This is the pattern worth paying attention to. The Iran conflict didn’t just tighten gas markets – it handed political cover and commercial urgency to every stalled energy project on earth. Governments that couldn’t get financing, couldn’t align partners, couldn’t justify the risk – suddenly can. The Trans-Saharan pipeline is one example. It won’t be the last.

Strawman’s favourite framework is that markets are adaptive systems. Prices send signals, capital responds, and the world adjusts to new realities faster than consensus expects. The Iran shock is doing exactly that – not just in energy, but likely across defence supply chains, critical minerals, and alternative trade routes. The question isn’t whether the world adapts. It always does. The question is which frozen projects get defrosted next, and who owns them.

So what: I’m not buying the pipeline story directly. But I am watching for other long-stalled projects – infrastructure, resources, logistics – that just got a geopolitical catalyst. The best opportunities in the next 12 months may not be the obvious Hormuz plays. They may be the second and third-order beneficiaries that the market hasn’t connected yet.