0456 GMT - Select Harvests' bull at Bell Potter reckons that the Australia-listed almond grower could benefit from the implementation of water-management legislation in California. Analyst Jonathan Snape explains that the state's Sustainable Groundwater Management Act could potentially result in a multi-year reduction to Californian almond supply. This would then kickstart an upward price cycle that would materially benefit Select Harvest. Regions covering 80% of Californian almond orchards are required to reduce groundwater use by between 27% and 32%, he says, and sees no way in which almond orchards are not removed as restrictions come into effect. Bell Potter has a buy rating on the stock and a target price of 5.30 Australian dollars. Shares are up 2.4% at A$3.90. ([email protected])

0431 GMT - Super Retail Group's bull at Macquarie reckons that a shortage of suitable sites will stop the Australian company hitting its 2031 store-count target. A note from the investment bank says it expects the retailer to fall 31 stores short of its 900 target, but doesn't anticipate any incremental capital expenditure on network growth beyond existing forecasts. Anyway, Super Retail's observation that online retail is growing faster than in-store makes the analyst question whether an ambitious store rollout is the best allocation of capital. One positive for the analyst is Super Retail's focus on stores in regional markets, which should support so-called click-and-collect orders in those areas. Macquarie raises its target price by 2.6% to 15.90 Australian dollars and keeps an outperform rating on the stock, which is down 0.2% at A$12.33. ([email protected])

0335 GMT - Super Retail Group's bear at Morgan Stanley says the Australian company's five-year strategy hinges on an ability to maintain attractive store unit economics at the same time as delivering cost efficiencies. Analyst Mac Ross thinks Super Retail's aim of having 900 outlets under its brands by 2031 is ambitious. He tells clients in a note that supply-chain automation and optimization, along with the staged migration of its enterprise resource planning system, are the key enablers of the efficiencies needed to support Super Retail through its growth. MS raises its target price 2.8% to 11.20 Australian dollars, but reiterates an underweight rating. Shares are up 0.2% at A$12.38. ([email protected])

0321 GMT - Morgan Stanley analysts stay bearish on Westpac despite their belief that performance at its retail banking franchise is improving. They acknowledge the Australian lender's contention that its brand appeal, customer advocacy and status as customers' main financial institution have all improved, but stay underweight on the stock. They tell clients in a note that Westpac hasn't provided an update on its second-half performance nor issued new financial targets. With demand for property investment loans waning, the MS analysts also caution that a material shift in operating conditions would increase the risk of earnings downgrades. MS has a target price of 31.50 Australian dollars on the stock, which is up 1.6% at A$35.035. ([email protected])

0050 GMT - Aurum Resources has served up a compelling case for the development of the Boundiali Gold Project in northern Ivory Coast, says Bell Potter. The pre-feasibility study outlines a maiden ore reserve of 42.1 million tons of gold-bearing ore at Boundiali grading at 0.9 grams per ton. Analyst David Coates says that supports a conventional open-pit mine producing 185,000 oz annually over its first five years of operation. "Compared with our in-house estimates, slightly lower grades and recoveries are more than offset by a higher mill throughput, gold production rates and lower capital costs," Bell Potter says. Boundiali presents as an attractive development project, says Bell Potter, which rates Aurum at speculative buy. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

0046 GMT - AMA's earnings guidance still looks too high to Bell Potter, but it takes the view that no news from the smash-repair group is good news. Analyst Chris Savage says traffic levels across Australia since April have been relatively normal. Combined with reasonable rainfall this suggests that repair volumes in 4Q will have been close to or around expectations. "Indeed, the lack of any trading update suggests the guidance is still on track and the commencement of the buyback this week also suggests there is no need at this stage for the company to 'cleanse' the market," Bell Potter says. It expects a normalized FY 2026 Ebitda of A$68.4 million. That compares to AMA's guidance of A$70 million-A$75 million. Bell Potter retains a buy call on AMA's stock.([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2304 GMT - Forsyth Barr thinks the market is too bearish about the outlook for Summerset. The retirement-village operator's share price has fallen more than 30% to NZ$8.23 so far this year. Analyst Will Twiss says this reflects growing investor concerns around issues including the cash-generation potential of Summerset's existing villages and the strength of its balance sheet. "These concerns are not unfounded," says Forsyth Barr. "However, we believe the market has become excessively pessimistic." It thinks investors are assuming a higher probability of balance-sheet stress than is justified. They're also assuming a steady-state cash return on net tangible assets of only 3% from Summerset's existing villages and little to no value creation from its development engine, Forsyth Barr says. It retains an outperform call and NZ$12.60/share price target. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2249 GMT - Skellerup's bull at Forsyth Barr continues to think the company might positively surprise with its FY26 earnings. Analyst Rohan Koreman-Smit says data points and key customer updates suggest solid momentum has continued into 2H. Exchange rates have also moved favorably, with the Australian dollar strengthening. "As such, we see upside risk to the top end of FY26 guidance, which implies a slowdown in net profit growth from 20% in 1H26 to 9% in 2H26, and remain comfortable with our modestly (+2%) above-guidance estimate," Forsyth Barr says. Its price target rises 8.3% to NZ$7.15/share. Skellerup is up 0.2% to NZ$6.33 today. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

2244 GMT - There were two surprises for Jefferies at Super Retail's investor day yesterday. Super Retail unexpectedly signaled higher unallocated costs from spending on projects and outlined plans to accelerate the roll out of new stores. Jefferies, which rates Super Retail at hold, highlights that sportswear business Rebel's profit margins have declined in the past five years despite its store footprint remaining largely unchanged. That makes analyst Michael Simotas cautious about plans to increase the chain's floor space at a compound annual rate of 5%. "Valuation undemanding but weak consumer backdrop and cost inflation leave us cautious on the near-term outlook," he says of Super Retail's stock. Super Retail ended Thursday at A$12.35, above Jefferies's A$12.00/share price target. ([email protected]; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires