Forum Topics AX1 AX1 $0.65 Unconditional Offer (15/

Pinned straw:

Added 4 weeks ago

Fraser Group (UK based) has this morning issued a $0.65 offer for all shares that is unconditional. The lack of premium tells us a bit about what they are trying to achieve.

They currently own 22.9% of the company, so this looks like a creeping move for control. They are only able to increase the size of their position over 20% if they offer a takeover – so here is the offer, basically at the current price so they can purchase more shares on market.

Break out the popcorn and let’s see where this goes!

Disc: I own RL

UlladullaDave
Added 4 weeks ago

They currently own 22.9% of the company, so this looks like a creeping move for control. They are only able to increase the size of their position over 20% if they offer a takeover – so here is the offer, basically at the current price so they can purchase more shares on market.

Seems like they will drive the price up. As I am sure you are aware in an on market takeover if the bidder buys above the takeover price on market they are deemed to have increased the takeover price for all remaining shares. Obviously, given they are now a buyer and the bid is at the undisturbed price its likely they will push the price up.

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Tom73
Added 4 weeks ago

Having now read in more detail the offer, it looks like Fraser Group, who have partnered with Accent to bring the Sports Direct brand into Australia are very unhappy with the current management (in their dealing with them, performance to date and future plans). They have 1 board seat and if they increase their holding to 26% then they can get another and start pushing the board in the direction they think it should go. That said they say they are happy to buy the whole company if they reach 90% by the offer close date of 31 July.

So, there is a $0.65 price floor on Accent until the offer closes, not surprising the price is trading above the offer.

Fraser Group is right to criticise the performance, as I noted in my straw on “is there value”, management have grown the business but failed to increase EPS (ie shareholder returns have been missing). Fraser group also point out the continued payment of dividends has been inappropriate in the face of a worsening balance sheet with the company unable to generate real cash returns for a long time.

Being a relatively new investor at $0.60 I will probably look for an exit for a small profit. My thesis was that even in the face of poor growth and performance there was value at that price, but we may have some turmoil before that value is realised and the upside Vs risk is looking less compelling.

I look forward to reading others views and reading more on this before making any decisions. 

Good point @UlladullaDave, the floor price may effectively rise if they chase the 3% they need.

Disc: I own RL

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UlladullaDave
Added 4 weeks ago

Being a relatively new investor at $0.60 I will probably look for an exit for a small profit. My thesis was that even in the face of poor growth and performance there was value at that price, but we may have some turmoil before that value is realised and the upside Vs risk is looking less compelling.

I guess the flip side of that argument would be that the business has generally been regarded as poorly run and that was holding it back. There's now a catalyst for change in that regard if not an outright takeover. That might partly explain the price action today. Frasers may not chase the price (or might I don't have a feel either way) but there's a pathway to removing current management which did not exist until today. And it seems accepted wisdom that this management team was pretty poor.

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